Zhitong
2024.03.14 07:40
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Is the sky the limit for Bitcoin? In the next three years, $220 billion in funds may flow into Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin spot ETF may see inflows of up to $220 billion, with Coinbase expected to be in a favorable position, raising its target stock price from $220 to $300. Wall Street's bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin is growing, with expectations that the price of Bitcoin could reach $280,000.

Zhitong App learned that JMP Securities, a well-known investment institution on Wall Street, released a research report on Wednesday, predicting that in the next three years, the Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF may see a potential inflow of up to $220 billion in funds. This implies that with the application of a multiplier to calculate new capital, the price of Bitcoin could double, reaching $280,000. Recently, Wall Street's bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin has been growing stronger. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, while hedge fund SkyBridge forecasts that by April 2025, Bitcoin will reach $170,000.

Analysts at JMP Securities stated in the report that if their expected scale of fund inflows proves to be correct, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN.US) remains in a favorable position. Data compiled by Factset shows that the institution has significantly raised Coinbase's 12-month target price from $220 to $300, the highest target price among Wall Street analysts, while maintaining a rating of "outperform" for Coinbase. As of the close of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, Coinbase's stock price stood at $251.73.

One category of companies that have benefited from the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF issuance and the surge in Bitcoin prices are cryptocurrency exchanges, with Coinbase (COIN.US) being the most famous among them. Coinbase's scale in custody services is considered the largest globally, and custody is a core part required for the issuance of a Bitcoin spot ETF.

"Although the fund inflow scale of the Bitcoin spot ETF has exceeded our expectations, reaching $10 billion just two months after its launch," analysts at JMP Securities emphasized in the report, "the current level of fund activity and flow may still be just the tip of the iceberg." They added that fund flow is expected to continue to grow significantly, as the formal approval of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is just the beginning of a "longer capital allocation process."

"We estimate that there could be an incremental fund inflow of up to $220 billion into the Bitcoin spot ETF in the next three years. Considering the multiplier effect of capital, this could also have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin," wrote analysts led by Devin Ryan at JMP Securities.

"If our direction is correct in terms of the net inflow scale of the Bitcoin spot ETF reaching $220 billion, applying our estimate of a current new capital multiplier of approximately 25x, this alone could drive a $5.5 trillion increase in the total market value of Bitcoin, with each Bitcoin reaching as high as $280,000," the analysts at JMP Securities concluded. BitMEX's tracked data shows that at the close of the US stock market on Tuesday, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF reached as high as 14,706 Bitcoins, worth over $1 billion, setting a new single-day record.

On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, a major Wall Street bank, stated in a forecast report last week that their analysis data indicates the overall size of the Bitcoin spot ETF market may grow to around $62 billion in the next two to three years.

With Bitcoin's price surpassing the $73,000 mark, hitting a new all-time high, the expectations for Bitcoin's price on Wall Street are becoming increasingly aggressive. It seems that $73,000 may just be the beginning. Analysts from the renowned investment firm Bernstein on Wall Street boldly claim that the upward trend of Bitcoin has just begun, with an expected rise to $150,000 by mid-next year.

Standard Chartered Bank predicts Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of this year; research firm Fundstrat's target range is between $116,000 and $137,000; according to the hedge fund SkyBridge's forecast, Bitcoin will reach $170,000 by April 2025.

Ark Invest, the fund management company approved to launch a Bitcoin ETF, presents a long-term bullish case, expecting the price of each Bitcoin to exceed $1.3 million in the next decade.

As Bitcoin has continuously hit new all-time highs in the past week, VanEck recently abandoned its $80,000 target for 2024, but their "mid-term" target for Bitcoin remains at $350,000. VanEck is a fund management company that obtained approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January this year to launch a new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

While many have expressed their views on the future of Bitcoin, few have made predictions as attention-grabbing as Ark Invest's founder and CEO, Cathie Wood. Her fundamental scenario predicts a Bitcoin price of $600,000 by 2030, nearly 10 times the current price. In her bullish scenario, she expects Bitcoin to reach $1.5 million by 2030. If Bitcoin's price does reach $1.5 million, its market value will exceed $30 trillion. In fact, Wood's initial bull market forecast was $1 million, but influenced by factors such as the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, she raised it to $1.5 million. Wood specifically pointed out that the increase in long-term and institutional holders, the growing total number of holders, the continuously rising hash rate, and the scale of buying into Bitcoin spot ETF are important factors.