Wallstreetcn
2024.03.17 11:52
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The European and American electric vehicles suffered a "major defeat", while the "reverse version" of TM ADR US staged a comeback.

The market will never smoothly transition to electric vehicles. Analysts believe that as early user demand is met, the momentum of electric cars will slow down.


TM ADR US, once criticized for its slow pace in transitioning to electrification, has seen a turnaround recently with its focus on hybrid cars proving to be successful.

In the 9 months since last April, TM ADR US has achieved profits of $27 billion, roughly double the profits from the same period the previous year. In comparison, the leading overseas electric car player Tesla reported profits of $15 billion in 2023, only a 19% increase from 2022.

Furthermore, due to Tesla's slowing sales growth and declining profit per vehicle, Tesla's market value has dropped to less than half of its peak value of $1.2 trillion in November 2021. Meanwhile, TM ADR US's market value has increased by about one-third, reaching around $400 billion.

The "Great Failure" of European and American Electric Cars

For years, the automotive industry has been caught up in the frenzy of electric vehicles. Automakers have made optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and announced ambitious growth targets for electric vehicles. Wall Street has also raised the valuations of traditional automakers and startups based on these manufacturers' visions for the future of electric vehicles.

However, this hype is now fading, with major companies once again emphasizing the importance of consumer choice. Automakers including Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover, and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.

Even the American electric car leader Tesla, with its CEO Musk stating at the end of January that they are prepared for "potentially significantly lower" growth rates.

Marin Gjaja, Chief Operating Officer of Ford's electric vehicle division, recently stated in a media interview, "What we saw in 2021 and 2022 was a temporary peak in the market when demand for electric vehicles really took off. It's still growing, but not at the pace we expected in 2021 and 2022."

Currently, Ford is significantly increasing the production and sales of its hybrid models, making it easier for drivers who may not be ready to switch to all-electric models to transition to electric vehicles.

As the first traditional automaker to fully commit to electric vehicles, General Motors is also planning to introduce plug-in hybrid vehicles for consumers alongside electric and gasoline cars. Other automakers such as Hyundai, Kia, and Volkswagen plan to offer varying degrees of electrification in their product lines.

It is important to note that while consumer demand for electric vehicles has not materialized as expected by executives, sales of electric vehicles are still expected to grow in the coming years.

According to Cox Automotive estimates, electric vehicle sales in the United States reached a record 1.2 million units last year, accounting for 7.6% of the U.S. automotive market. Analysts predict that by the end of this decade, this proportion is expected to increase to 30% to 39%.


Media cited Sam Fiorani, Vice President of Global Automotive Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, as saying, "The market will never smoothly transition to electric vehicles. We expect that as early user demand is met, this shift will slow down."

The Rise of "Reverse Version" TM ADR US

So far, electric vehicles have not won the hearts of many car buyers because, even with government incentives taken into account, they are often more expensive than gasoline or hybrid models. In addition, challenges with charging electric vehicles, concerns about range anxiety, and their performance in cold weather have made some people hesitant.

Hybrid vehicles do not have these issues. Some hybrid models are only a few hundred dollars more expensive than their gasoline counterparts, and owners can quickly recoup this additional expense through fuel savings.

Elon Musk once mocked hybrid vehicles, saying that having two propulsion systems under the hood was meaningless. However, consumers seem not to care and are turning to hybrid vehicles in droves, leading to a surge in sales for TM ADR US.

TM ADR US offers over 20 hybrid or plug-in hybrid models, accounting for nearly 30% of its sales, far higher than most other automakers. Last year in the U.S. market, TM ADR US sold 2.2 million vehicles, surpassing all automakers except General Motors.

"We are not saying that electric vehicles are not an effective solution to carbon emissions," said Jack Hollis, Executive Vice President of TM ADR US's North American division. "They are indeed effective solutions, but they are not the only solutions, and many customers tell us that they want to choose hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicles."

Currently, TM ADR US is planning to significantly increase the production and sales of hybrid vehicles, with the hybrid version of the Tacoma pickup truck set to be launched. Additionally, the all-new Camry sedan, which will be available in hybrid version only, is set to be launched this spring.