Deutsche Bank March Market Survey: Professionals are most optimistic about this technology company in the next 5 years

On March 25, 2024, Deutsche Bank released a global financial market survey conducted in March 2024, which received approximately 250 responses from around the world within three days. The survey aimed to collect views and forecasts on the global financial markets from professionals in different regions and countries.

The survey results showed that respondents' expectations for a "soft landing" of the U.S. economy are increasing. More and more people believe that a U.S. economic recession will not occur in 2024 or earlier, but will be postponed to after 2024.

The main concerns in the U.S. market currently focus on persistent inflation issues rather than the risk of a recession. Although short-term inflation remains stubborn, respondents' expectations for long-term inflation are decreasing, and the likelihood of major economies returning to negative interest rate policies in the next decade is low.

In terms of the market, most respondents believe that the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds will decrease by another 100 basis points from the current level. The bubble risk is highest for Bitcoin and the "FAANG" stocks, with Microsoft being seen as the best tech stock in the next 5 years. Over half of the respondents expect the S&P 500 index to fall by 10% in the future.

U.S. Market More Concerned About Persistent Inflation Than Recession

In this survey, 45% of respondents believe that the U.S. economy will continue to grow. 38% of respondents believe that the U.S. economy will experience a "soft landing."

It is worth noting that the market is currently more concerned about persistent inflation issues than the risk of a recession, as only 17% of respondents believe that the U.S. economy will enter a "hard landing" phase.

Expectations for Economic Recession This Year Significantly Reduced

More and more people expect the U.S. economic recession to occur after 2024, rather than in 2024 or earlier. Currently, only 13% of respondents believe that the economic recession will occur this year, compared to 62% of people who predicted a recession before the end of 2024 in December last year.

At the same time, the number of people uncertain about when the U.S. economic recession will occur has increased from 11% to 19%.

Stronger Expectations for a "Soft Landing" of the U.S. Economy

Investors' expectations for a "soft landing" of the U.S. economy are increasing. According to respondents, 84% believe that the stock market has fully reflected the expectations of a soft landing, while 83% believe that credit spreads also reflect the same expectations. These proportions have significantly increased from 76% and 71% in December last year Of particular note, among the most confident group of investors in the future (those with a 90%-100% certainty of a "soft landing" expectation), the proportion who believe that the stock market is fully priced has risen from 18% to 35%, and the corresponding proportion in the credit market has also increased from 15% to 35%, achieving significant growth in just over three months.

To what extent do you think these different markets reflect the expectation of a soft landing?

Market Views on the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target Differ

There is a significant difference in opinions among respondents on the next steps the Federal Reserve should take in dealing with the inflation target, with almost a uniform distribution.

43% of respondents believe that the Federal Reserve should stick to the 2% inflation target, even in the face of inflationary pressures, and should maintain the target unchanged. They believe that maintaining the stability of the inflation target is crucial for maintaining market confidence and economic expectations.

47% of respondents believe that the Federal Reserve can temporarily tolerate inflation rates exceeding the 2% target for a period of time, and then work to bring it back to the target level.

In addition, 10% of respondents believe that the Federal Reserve should reexamine its formal inflation target, as they think the current inflation target may no longer be suitable for the current economic environment.

Which statement above best reflects your views on the Federal Reserve/Government's inflation target in the coming years?

While short-term inflation remains stubborn, long-term inflation expectations are still declining

Surveys show that despite the prevailing expectation of continued economic growth and high short-term inflation rates, respondents' long-term inflation expectations are still declining, a trend seen in both the United States and Europe.

In the United States, despite recent stubborn inflation performance, the average inflation expectation for the next five years has dropped from 2.7% in the fourth quarter to 2.6%, reaching the lowest level since the third quarter of 2021.

In Europe, despite facing short-term inflation pressures, long-term inflation expectations have also decreased, further dropping from 2.4% to 2.1%, reaching the lowest point since the first quarter of 2022.

What do you think the average range of inflation will be in the next 5 years?

Unlikely for Major Economies to Return to Negative Interest Rate Policies in the Next Ten Years

With Japan ending its negative interest rate policy, 63% of respondents believe that it is unlikely for other major economies to adopt negative interest rate policies again in the next ten years. However, 26% of respondents still hold the opposite view, believing that the possibility of negative interest rates still exists Japan has ended its negative interest rate policy. Considering this, do you think we will see major economies with negative interest rates again in the next ten years?

The biggest bubble risks for Bitcoin and the "Seven Sisters" of US stocks

As the US stock market hits historic highs and the price of Bitcoin soars, Deutsche Bank has once again asked readers about their views on market bubbles after three years. The survey results show that investors believe the biggest bubble risks are for Bitcoin and the "Seven Sisters" of US stocks.

In this survey, Bitcoin scored 7.9 in bubble risk assessment, ranking first. Following closely are the technology "Seven Sisters" with a bubble risk score of 7.4. US tech stocks and the US credit market are also considered to have bubble risks, scoring 6.9 and 6.2 respectively, both exceeding the threshold of 6 points.

In contrast, non-tech US stocks, European stocks, and Asian stocks are considered to have lower bubble risks, scoring 4.5, 4.0, and 3.7 respectively.

Using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means "no bubble" and 10 means "extreme bubble", please tell us at what level you think these assets are currently at?

The best tech stock for the next 5 years is Microsoft

Despite Nvidia's impressive performance so far in 2024, with a rise of over 90% since the beginning of the year, investors are more optimistic about Microsoft's long-term growth prospects. Over 33% of respondents believe that in the next five years, Microsoft will have the highest return on investment, while 25% of respondents believe this honor will belong to Nvidia.

Among the "Seven Tech Giants", which company is expected to have the highest total stock return rate in the next 5 years?

Respondents are bearish on Bitcoin, more balanced view on Nvidia stock price

There is a clear difference in respondents' views on the future price trends of Bitcoin and Nvidia stocks. 50% of respondents are bearish on Bitcoin, believing that its future price will halve, while only 27% think it will double.

This result shows a pessimistic expectation for the future price of Bitcoin among respondents, which was also indicated in previous surveys, although Bitcoin's price was lower at that time.

In comparison, 41% of people believe that Nvidia's stock price is more likely to double, while 38% expect it to halve. Respondents have a more balanced view on Nvidia's stock price trend, without the clear bearish sentiment seen for Bitcoin Is Bitcoin more likely to double or halve with Nvidia?

Respondents expect further decline in 10-year US Treasury yield

Despite a 61 basis point (bps) decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield since last October, 69% of respondents firmly believe that the yield will decrease by another 100 bps in the future, rather than increase.

Will the yield on the 10-year Treasury rise or fall in the future?

Respondents are cautious about the future trend of the S&P 500 Index

Although the S&P 500 Index has been rising in 2023, investors hold a relatively pessimistic outlook on its next move. 46% of respondents believe that the index will rise by 10% next, while the majority of 54% expect a 10% decline.

How will the S&P 500 Index perform in the future?

Respondents expect Trump to be re-elected

Respondents' expectations for Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election have strengthened. According to weighted average results, the percentage of respondents who believe Trump may be re-elected has increased from 52% in December last year to 63% in March this year.

Furthermore, 33% of respondents believe that the possibility of Trump being re-elected exceeds 70%, indicating a stronger expectation among this group of respondents for Trump's re-election.

What do you think is the likelihood of Trump being re-elected after the 2024 US election?

ChatGPT user growth is slowing down, but usage is still increasing

Although ChatGPT continues to attract new users, the number of people who have used ChatGPT has slightly increased from 64% to 71%. However, after rapid growth in the first half of 2023, the growth rate of new users has slowed down, indicating that the market may be gradually saturating.

When thinking about ChatGPT, which statement best describes you?

US productivity growth is expected to remain relatively stable over the next decade

47% of respondents believe that US productivity growth will remain relatively stable at 1% to 2% per year over the next decade, a forecast that aligns with the average productivity growth rate of 1.5% in the US since the global financial crisis.

42% of respondents are more optimistic, expecting US productivity growth to increase to the range of 2% to 3% per year.

Only 3% of respondents believe that productivity growth will fall below 1% per year, a very low proportion, with few people concerned about a decline.

Since the global financial crisis, US productivity has averaged around 1.5% growth. Where do you think this trend will go over the next 10 years?

Most people continue to adopt a hybrid work model after the pandemic

Even as we move further away from the pandemic era, over half (56%) of respondents continue to work from home, for up to three days a week at most, indicating that remote work remains popular for many even after the pandemic.

38% of respondents have been working in the office almost all the time, a slight increase from 37% in October last year, and the highest level since April 2020.

While more people are gradually returning to traditional office work settings, the number of days working from home remains high, suggesting that a hybrid work model (partly in the office, partly at home) may become the norm to some extent.

How many days a week do you currently work from home?