Wall Street bullish research reports are becoming more and more aggressive: By 2030, the main theme of the US stock market will be "epic long bull market"

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, the bullish research reports on Wall Street recently have been increasingly aggressive. Following Goldman Sachs' bold prediction that the S&P 500 index is expected to reach 6,000 points by 2024, Bank of America recently released a research report stating that the current long-term bull market in the U.S. stock market is about to enter its 11th year. More importantly, the institution emphasizes that from a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its strong upward trend in the coming years, thereby fully extending the momentum of the "epic long bull market."

As the S&P 500 index continues to hit historical highs this year, strategists at Bank of America believe that from a technical trend perspective of the stock market bull market, the current "epic long bull" in U.S. stocks is expected to continue until around 2030. They predict that the S&P 500 index may rise to 7,000 points by the end of 2026 (as of Monday's U.S. stock market close, the S&P 500 index closed at 5,218.19 points).

The strategists at Bank of America stated in their report that the current long-term bull market in U.S. stocks officially began in April 2013 when the U.S. stock market surpassed the historical peak levels set in 2007 and 2000. This long-term epic bull market trend was confirmed again in December 2023 when the S&P 500 index broke through its key technical "cup and handle pattern" near the 4,600 level. Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by over 14% and has continuously hit historical highs since 2024.

The strategists at Bank of America predict that the momentum of the "epic long bull" of the S&P 500 index will continue, suggesting that the index may rise by approximately 34% by the end of 2026. "The S&P 500 index has rebounded significantly by about 46% from the interim low point in October 2022," stated the strategy team led by Bank of America's technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier. "And with a historical rebound of 106% from the low point, the U.S. stock market bull market could continue for about four more years, which means there is a possibility that the S&P could rise to 7,000 points by the end of 2026."

The epic "long bull" trend of U.S. stocks that began in 2013 is expected to continue until 2030

As for when signs of a halt to this epic "long bull market" in U.S. stocks will appear, the strategists led by Suttmeier at Bank of America expect that there will be no end to this epic "long bull market" in U.S. stocks at least until 2030. The Bank of America strategists wrote: "The long-term bull markets in U.S. stocks from 1950-1966 and 1980-2000 lasted 16 and 20 years respectively, "This means that the current long-term bull market in US stocks is only in its 'middle age' stage, very likely to continue until 2029-2033."

Bank of America strategists stated in a research report that "from a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index breaking through the historic milestone of 4,600 points in December last year signifies that two recent price targets are likely to be achieved, namely 5,200 points and 5,600 points. Therefore, with the 5,200 point target already achieved, the next technical target for the S&P 500 index in 2024 will be to continue to rise by 7% to reach around 5,600 points."

In addition, Bank of America strategists led by Satyam emphasized that "the S&P 500 index breaking through the record high of about 4,800 points in January indicates another target point around 6,150 points from a technical perspective, which is very aggressive, 18% higher than the current level of the S&P 500 index." However, this target point to some extent aligns with the "bullish trading cycle" associated with the US presidential election cycle - the fourth year of a US president's first term is often very favorable for the US stock market.

From a technical perspective, in terms of downside support indicators, Bank of America strategists led by Satyam stated that investors should pay attention to the two important support levels of 4,800 and 4,600 points, which means that the index could potentially drop by as much as 12% under extreme negative catalysts.

As for the outlook for the US stock market in 2024, more and more Wall Street strategists are raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index!

It is worth noting that "as for the outlook for the US stock market in 2024, important bearish forces on Wall Street are turning bullish, with more and more top Wall Street strategists raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index. Therefore, based on the technical prediction of 5,600 points by the Bank of America team, this target point is very likely to be achieved in 2024. In addition, the more aggressive technical target point predicted by the Bank of America team - 6,150 points, is also possible but with a lower probability, provided that the 'Magnificent 7' tech giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft, which hold a high weight in the S&P 500 index, continue to outperform market expectations."

The 'Magnificent 7' tech giants include: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. Global investors have been flocking to these tech giants from 2023 to early 2024, especially driving the stock prices of Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta to new historical highs. The main reason is that they are betting on the fact that due to the huge market size and financial strength of these tech giants, they are in the best position to leverage artificial intelligence technology to expand revenue." In the 23% surge of the S&P 500 index in 2023, this group contributed about two-thirds.

The global enterprises are all rushing into the frenzy of artificial intelligence, and the unparalleled performance growth of "AI selling shovels" for four consecutive quarters has caught Wall Street analysts by surprise. This trend has led Wall Street strategists to believe that the AI era has arrived, and human society's productivity is expected to enter a new stage. As a result, they are rushing to keep up with the stock market rebound that has exceeded their expectations, and more and more bearish strategists are shifting to the bullish camp. Additionally, there is even a view in the U.S. stock market that regardless of whether there is an AI bubble, the valuation of U.S. technology stocks has ample room for expansion.

Piper Sandler strategist Michael Kantrowitz was arguably the most bearish strategist on the U.S. stock market in 2023. In 2023, this strategist even predicted a decline in the U.S. stock market to 3225 points. However, the S&P 500 index in 2023 slapped Kantrowitz in the face with a "technical bull market", and recently the analyst has significantly raised the expected S&P 500 index to 5250 points.

Star strategist Savita Subramanian from Bank of America has raised the institution's year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5400 points, on par with the highest level on Wall Street. She has joined the ranks of Ed Yardeni, President and Founder of Yardeni Research, and Jonathan Golub, a renowned strategist at UBS Group AG, both of whom are bullish on the U.S. stock market. These two bullish strategists share the same positive outlook on the U.S. stock market by the end of the year, with a bullish target of 5400 points.

As the significant rise in U.S. stocks triggers a comprehensive comparison with past bubble periods, strategists at the international bank Societe Generale believe that strong performance and signs of a reacceleration in the U.S. economy indicate that this uptrend is reasonable. The bank's U.S. stock strategy director Manish Kabra and his team wrote in a recent report: "We believe that the current uptrend is driven more by rational optimism than irrational prosperity." The strategists mentioned the "better-than-expected" breadth of corporate earnings, a new high in profit cycles, and improvements in global leading indicators.

Regarding whether U.S. technology stocks are already in a bubble, strategists at Societe Generale led by Kabra stated that if the data from the peak of the 1999 Internet bubble period is applied, the S&P 500 index would need to rise to at least 6250 points to be comparable to the "technology stock bubble" level of the irrational prosperity period at that time, compared to the latest close of the U.S. stock market at 5218.19 points.

In addition, strategists at Societe Generale led by Kabra have raised their target for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2024 from 4750 points to 5500 points. The strategists stated that with the improvement in corporate profit prospects and the AI frenzy, the unstoppable record-breaking rise of the U.S. stock market is undeniable **

Strategists from the Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs reiterated that the year-end target for the S&P 500 index will be at 5200 points, but they believe that the strong performance of large tech companies such as NVIDIA will continue to drive the tech sector higher, potentially pushing the benchmark index to 6000 points. "Our most optimistic projection is for the S&P 500 index to rise by about 15% from its current level to reach 6000 points by the end of the year," Goldman Sachs strategists stated in a research report released last Friday.

Barclays Bank is one of the most bullish investment institutions on the future of US stocks on Wall Street. The institution has significantly raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 4800 points to 5300 points, mainly due to expectations that US stocks will continue to benefit from the robust earnings of large tech companies and the outstanding performance of the US economy beyond market expectations. Barclays also pointed out in the report that if the core performance data of large tech companies continues to significantly exceed expectations, the institution believes that the S&P 500 index could potentially reach 6050 points by the end of this year.