On August 8th, the release of RoboTaxi? Experts: Impossible! Can Musk achieve it this time?

Elon Musk announced the long-awaited launch of the Robotaxi on August 8th, which instantly ignited Wall Street, driving Tesla's stock price up nearly 4% and boosting investor confidence to some extent.

However, many analysts believe that the RoboTaxi release on August 8th is a pie in the sky drawn by Musk for the stock price. At the 2019 Autonomy Day event, Musk publicly stated that Tesla would establish its own fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet, yet five years later, Musk's vision has not been realized.

On April 13th, Philip Koopman, Associate Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, bluntly stated that it will take many more years to achieve fully autonomous driving technology. "Currently, even industry-leading companies like Waymo and Cruise still have issues with their autonomous vehicles, and there is still a long way to go before achieving fully driverless technology."

Koopman believes that achieving Robotaxi means ensuring vehicle safety without the need for human intervention. "To achieve this, whatever software is installed in the vehicle must be nearly perfect. Clearly, FSD (Full Self-Driving) has not reached this level, strong claims require strong evidence, so where is the evidence? I haven't seen it."

Vicki Bryan, Founder and CEO of bond analysis company Bond Angle LLC, believes that at least Model 2 is feasible, while RoboTaxi is not. "I believe that Tesla does not have the technology to transform existing Tesla vehicles into autonomous vehicles, despite Musk's promises over the years, it seems unlikely to achieve this goal now."

Media analysis suggests that in the face of many business challenges, Musk's attempt to boost stock prices through Robotaxi may once again disappoint investors. At a critical moment when product demand and business growth should be increased through price reductions and innovation, Musk has chosen to pursue autonomous driving projects that may not yield short-term returns.

Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives believes that Tesla should simultaneously advance Robotaxi and Model 2. If Tesla sees Robotaxi as a replacement for Model 2, it would be a serious strategic mistake.

He believes that while Robotaxi has great potential, at the current stage, Model 2 as a more affordable car option is more urgently needed to meet the demands of the global mass market.**

Tesla's FSD Dilemma

First, a quarter of performance can be described as a "disaster", followed by news that the new economical Model 2 model may be delayed or completely canceled. Musk quickly responded and came up with a big move: On August 8th, it will launch a self-driving taxi service (Robotaxi).

However, whether Robotaxi can be Tesla's "lifesaver" still faces many uncertainties. The essence of the Robotaxi business is to earn intermediary fees. If mass production is truly achieved, the economics will be better than Uber's ride-hailing service, which is also one of the reasons Tesla entered the field.

However, analysts believe that despite the promising economic prospects, the realization of autonomous driving technology still needs time to verify due to its technical complexity. Media analysis points out that a key criterion to judge whether Tesla's FSD technology is truly ready is: whether Tesla is willing to take responsibility for accidents that occur under its car's autonomous driving mode.

Bryant Walker Smith, an expert at the University of South Carolina School of Law studying autonomous driving laws, stated that unless Tesla clearly states that drivers do not need to pay attention to the road conditions, can avoid responsibility for driving, and do not need to take responsibility for accidents that occur during the car's autonomous driving, Tesla has not truly achieved autonomous driving.

Based on the above criteria, Musk's attitude towards autonomous driving shows some contradictions. On one hand, he promises to launch robot taxis and actively promote the auxiliary driving system to buyers. On the other hand, he is defending against lawsuits filed for the system's failure to perform as expected.

Musk once predicted that Tesla would have 1 million robot taxis in 2020, but as of now, Tesla has not launched a car that does not require driver monitoring.

Tesla's limitations in its driving assistance system were exposed in lawsuits. Recently, Tesla reached a settlement with the family of a victim involved in a fatal accident related to the Autopilot driving assistance system in Silicon Valley. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration believes that the system may give drivers a false sense of security.

Professor Philip Koopman stated that every player entering the autonomous driving car industry has found that projects that were thought to be achievable in one or two years actually take ten to twenty years to achieve. "Tesla has also realized this."

Former CEO of Waymo, a self-driving technology company under Google, John Krafcik, stated that Tesla promised eight years ago that all their cars would achieve full autonomous driving, but during this period, Tesla has changed its statements multiple times. Most people believe that Tesla will need several more years to achieve full autonomous driving, which may not be achievable this year.

Tesla's autonomous driving relies on cameras and radars, without using LiDAR. Koopman believes that this is like "tying a person's hands behind their back."

Facing Regulatory and Legal Constraints, Robotaxis May Face Restrictions on the Road

Currently, the main bottleneck in the development of Robotaxi business is obtaining permits from regulatory agencies in various states, as legal regulations restrict its expansion speed.

In 2023, Robotaxi in the United States has had multiple "standoffs" with traffic police, including Waymo and Cruise, where Robotaxi vehicles were requested to pull over while driving on open roads. However, although the Robotaxi vehicles braked upon detecting pedestrians ahead, they seemed to not understand the hand gestures of the traffic police, leading to a standoff lasting over a minute and causing traffic congestion.

Media reports quoting industry insiders point out that more targeted algorithm training is needed to address this issue. The industry estimates that it will take 10 years to address this, and the safety risks associated with it are also a key reason restricting regulatory relaxation:

The long tail problem of autonomous driving caused by a large number of edge cases, with about 10% of scenarios failing. Moreover, autonomous driving technology, especially in perception and decision-making aspects, is still imperfect, leading to frequent situations where Robotaxi vehicles "disobey" authorities.

Professor Bryant Walker Smith stated that due to the gap between Musk's promises and Tesla's actual progress in autonomous driving, along with some questionable statements made by Musk, Tesla's driver assistance system may face more scrutiny and questioning.

California is at the forefront of autonomous taxi development in the United States. According to the California Department of Motor Vehicles and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which are responsible for regulating robot taxis, although Musk announced last week that Tesla will launch a robot taxi product in August, Tesla has not yet applied for the two permits required to operate unmanned taxi services.

Currently, Tesla only holds a low-level autonomous vehicle road test permit from the California DMV, which only allows testing with a human safety driver present. Industry experts suggest that since Tesla relies more on its existing driver assistance system, obtaining a permit for autonomous taxi operation may take longer, or may even be denied approval.

Taking Waymo as an example, as a derivative company of Google's autonomous driving car department, it applied in December 2022 and obtained a CPUC operating permit 8 months later. This shows that obtaining permits is not an easy task