Rating Quick Look | Xiaomi's pre-performance target price has been raised! Li Auto's post-performance target price has been cut

Credit Suisse: Maintains "Buy" rating on Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 475

The bank recently met with Tencent management and identified several key points:

1. Tencent has successfully revitalized the domestic and international online gaming market.
2. The advertising market share continues to increase, with the potential of Video Accounts (VA) yet to be fully realized.
3. Slowdown in offline payment transaction volume leading to a deceleration in financial technology revenue.
4. Commitment to a share repurchase plan.

In terms of time spent on Video Accounts (VA), it is more than double that of Moments, with the former growing by over 80% compared to the same period last year. In terms of pricing, the uniqueness of Moments sets it apart in competition with Video Accounts. The click-through rate of Video Accounts remains low at around 3%, indicating significant room for growth compared to peers. Additionally, investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) can enhance click-through rates through better ad targeting.

J.P. Morgan: Raises Xiaomi's target price from HKD 21 to HKD 24, up 14%

The bank noted that Xiaomi is set to announce its first-quarter performance this Thursday (23rd), benefiting from healthy gross profit margins of smartphones and AIoT products, strong growth of flagship smartphones, and stable internet service revenue. It is expected that the core profit performance in the first quarter will remain robust.

The report mentions that Xiaomi's electric vehicles remain a key catalyst for the stock price, with sales and orders expected to remain strong in the coming quarters. It is projected that Xiaomi's electric vehicle shipments will exceed 100,000 units by 2024, with more models to be launched in the coming quarters. The gross profit margin of the electric vehicle business is expected to turn positive rapidly, reaching 5%-10% by 2025, benefiting from economies of scale, strong supply chain management capabilities, and highly automated electric vehicle production lines.

Macquarie: Lowers Li Auto's target price by 24% from HKD 155 to HKD 118, maintains "Outperform" rating

The report indicates that Li Auto's sales in the first quarter were weak, but revenue and gross margin were in line with the bank's and market expectations. However, due to operating expenses falling short, along with high R&D and employee costs, net profit was 47% lower than forecasted. Additionally, the group has not revised its sales guidance for the fiscal year 2024, implying a sales target of close to 360,000 vehicles in the second half of the year, with the second-quarter automobile profit margin potentially dropping to 18%.

The bank believes that the delay in launching the BEV SUV until the second half of next year seems to be a response to the poor initial sales of the Li Auto Mega, leading to a more cautious approach when shifting strategies to the competitive BEV market. The bank has respectively lowered the group's sales forecasts for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 to 533,000 and 819,000 vehicles, reduced revenue forecasts by 16% and 17%, and adjusted net profit forecasts down by 9% and 15%.

Citi: Lowers Li Auto's target price from HKD 167.6 to HKD 113.8, maintains "Buy" rating

The bank updated its evaluation of Li Auto, lowering the three-year net profit forecast from this year to 2026 by 38% to 51%, to RMB 6.7 billion, 7.7 billion, and 12.1 billion respectively, believing that the market headwinds will continue into next year. However, the company's customer penetration rate, cash flow, and cash position are relatively strong compared to other new entrants in the new energy vehicle market, positioning it well in the new pure electric vehicle product cycle The bank also revised down the annual sales forecasts for Li Auto from 570,000, 690,000, and 760,000 units for the years from this year to 2026 to 480,000, 560,000, and 645,000 units respectively, as industry sources indicated a significant drop in orders after the May Day Golden Week, as well as delays in the launch of pure electric vehicles, which are expected to impact sales performance in the second half of the year.

Bank of America Securities: Reiterates "Buy" rating on Tencent Music-SW, raises target price from HKD 51 to HKD 71

The bank pointed out that the group's comprehensive content ecosystem and diversified user coverage further drive its market share growth in China. In addition, structural changes in the cost of the music business and the optimization of the combination between licensed products and in-house products also provide upward potential for profit growth.

The report stated that the company benefited from strong music user growth and better profit margin trends in the first quarter, with performance exceeding expectations. The bank expects the strong momentum of the group's music business to continue this year and boost profitability. The improvement in trends and the gradual improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU) during the Lunar New Year period are expected to drive healthy long-term growth this year due to strong music consumption trends.

Furthermore, the group further expanded the gross margin leverage of licensed content and increased the contribution of high-profit in-house music business. The bank believes that a better content mix and a strategy centered on return on investment will continue to drive the expansion of the group's music business and gross margin from 2024 to 2026. The bank expects earnings for the fiscal years 2024 and 2025 to increase by 5% and 3% respectively