Wallstreetcn
2024.05.31 22:56
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PCE transmission inflation is good, US bonds continue to rise, Dow Jones sees strongest daily gain of the year, tech stocks suppress Nasdaq, Dell plunges nearly 20%, NVIDIA's rebound fails with a rise of nearly 30% in May

The Dow rebounded strongly on Friday after two consecutive weeks of decline, while the S&P halted its two-week decline, and the Nasdaq erased most of its losses after falling more than 1% intraday, with a cumulative increase in May. NVIDIA initially rose 2% before turning lower; Apple rose for the fifth consecutive time, up nearly 13% in May; after the financial report, Dell experienced its largest drop in history, chip stock Micron Technology fell more than 10%, and Gap rose nearly 29% to achieve its largest increase in half a year. Chinese concept stocks fell more than 1%, XPeng Motors fell 4%, Tencent's US stocks fell more than 2%, while ZEEKR rose more than 2%. After the release of the PCE, US bond yields accelerated their decline, with the two-year yield hitting a one-week low; the US dollar index hit a daily low, marking its first monthly decline within the year in May; crude oil and gold and silver prices rose intraday, hitting daily highs before reversing back down. Ethereum rose nearly 20% in May. Offshore RMB fell 200 points intraday, breaking below 7.26. Crude oil fell for the third consecutive time, closing near a three-month low, marking the largest monthly decline within the year in May. Gold fell from a one-week high after rising for three consecutive months, while silver futures rose more than 10% in May. London zinc fell more than 3%, London copper fell for the third consecutive time to a three-week low despite rising for two months, while London tin rose nearly 6% in May, marking a six-month consecutive increase. Updates in progress

The inflation index favored by the Federal Reserve brought good news of cooling inflation, with the growth rate slightly slowing down compared to the previous month as expected on Wall Street. The month-on-month growth of the US core PCE price index in April increased by 0.2%, the lowest growth rate so far this year, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed to nearly 2.8%, hitting a three-year low. However, the PCE report also showed that actual consumer spending in April decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating signs of slow economic growth in the United States.

Commentators believe that the PCE report has added hope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, easing the tension on Wall Street after inflation heated up in the first three months of the year. However, consumer spending unexpectedly declined. Traders believe that for the data-dependent Federal Reserve, this report should be "not too bad", "slightly constructive", and "slightly dovish". Nick Timiraos, also known as the new "Fed News Agency", commented that the report largely meets market expectations and is unlikely to change the Fed's wait-and-see stance.

After the PCE data was released, pricing of swap contracts showed that investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least once this year. US Treasury bond prices continued to rise, with yields accelerating lower during trading, as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell below 4.50%, erasing all gains since poor demand for two-year and five-year Treasury notes on Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond, sensitive to interest rates, fell to a one-week low, dropping more than 10 basis points from the four-week highs reached on Wednesday.

Market expectations on Friday indicated that the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year has increased to over 35 basis points, still less than two rate cuts, while the number of rate cuts next year exceeds 75 basis points, enough for three rate cuts.

Tech stocks once again weighed on the US stock market, with all three major indices falling at one point. The chip stock index fell by more than 3% intraday, with Micron Technology leading the decline despite an 87% surge in first-quarter data center revenue due to AI demand, but other businesses dragged down profits. NVIDIA opened higher but failed to turn positive. Dell, whose quarterly results failed to impress investors, plunged by over 20% intraday, leading the decline in AI concept stocks. Dell's highly anticipated AI server business saw a 30% increase in orders to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, but the company's operating profit for the quarter did not increase but decreased, leading analysts to doubt the actual profit margin of AI servers.

However, most sectors led by energy rebounded, with even some tech giants like Apple stubbornly turning positive intraday, supporting the S&P to reverse its decline on Friday. Salesforce, which plummeted on Thursday after releasing disappointing earnings, hit bottom and rebounded, leading the gainers among Dow components Although the market fell back last week, chip stocks and AI concept stocks continued to rise in May. Dell saw a double-digit increase in May, with NVIDIA rising nearly 30% for the month. The AI boom continues to drive tech stocks, serving as a strong driver for the overall rise in the US stock market in May.

In the foreign exchange market, after the release of the PCE data, the intraday decline in the US dollar index widened, hitting a daily low. May became the first month of decline this year, with both US bond yields and the US dollar index showing a downward trend, reflecting the impact of the April CPI data release indicating a cooling inflation. Most non-US currencies rose intraday after the PCE data release. The Japanese yen later resumed its decline but did not approach the low point set on Wednesday over the past four weeks. The offshore Chinese yuan briefly erased most of its intraday losses, but then fell again, breaking below 7.26.

Commodities generally fell. The interest rate cut positive impact brought by the US PCE data did not sustain support for precious metals. After the PCE data release, gold and silver initially hit daily highs but then turned lower. In New York, gold and silver futures fell by more than 1% and 3% respectively. London base metals continued to decline across the board, with zinc falling by over 3% and copper holding above the $10,000 mark. Analysts pointed out that weak short-term demand for copper offset speculative bets, leading to a pullback in copper prices. China's May PMI data released on Friday showed a slight decline in business activity levels, with a decrease in industrial demand and increased scrap metal recycling adding to concerns about oversupply in the copper market.

After the PCE data release, international crude oil prices briefly rose and hit daily highs, but the expectation of an interest rate cut failed to sustain the rally. Oil prices resumed their decline, falling for three consecutive days and approaching a three-month low set a week ago. Continued uncertainty in demand continued to weigh on the oil market. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that US crude oil production in March rose to the highest level of the year at 13.2 million barrels per day, while petroleum product supplies fell to 19.9 million barrels per day. Overall demand for petroleum products weakened. After the EIA data release, crude oil accelerated its decline, falling by over 1.6% intraday. Some analysts pointed out that the downward trend in oil prices reflected anxiety ahead of the OPEC+ oil production policy meeting this Sunday. While the market generally expects OPEC+ to extend current production cuts, there may be unexpected measures taken.

Dow Jones sees a strong rebound on Friday, but still falls for two consecutive weeks. Dell sees its largest drop in history after earnings report, while Microvast Technologies falls by over 10% and Gap rises by over 20%.

The three major US stock indices opened higher, with mixed performance intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly turned lower in early trading, then accelerated its rise at midday, closing over 600 points higher at a daily high. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which initially rose nearly 0.3%, and the S&P 500 Index, which initially rose nearly 0.2%, both turned lower in early trading. At midday, the Nasdaq fell by over 1.7% and the S&P by over 0.8%. However, the Nasdaq later erased most of its losses, while the S&P turned higher at the close, hitting a daily high. In the end, only the Nasdaq closed lower, while the S&P and Dow Jones halted their two-week decline.

The Dow Jones closed up 574.84 points, a 1.51% increase, marking its largest point gain since June 2, 2023, and its largest percentage gain since November 2, 2023, closing at 38,686.32 points. This rebound broke the three-day decline trend since the closing low on May 1, 2023 On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.8% from its low on May 13, at 5277.51 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.01% to 16735.02 points, falling for three consecutive days and hitting new lows since May 23 for two days.

ETFs related to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), rose by 0.91% and 1.59% respectively on Thursday, rebounding after hitting new lows since May 13 and May 1, respectively. They have fallen by about 0.4% and 0.8% this week, and have risen by nearly 5.1% and 2.5% in May.

The small-cap Russell 2000, which is mainly composed of value stocks, rose by 0.66%, rising for two consecutive days to its high since May 22. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell by 0.01%, and the related ETF Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) fell by 0.19%, both falling for three consecutive days and hitting new lows since May 14 for two days. The latter fell by 1.58% this week and rose by 6.15% in May. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, fell by 0.31%, falling by 1.64% this week and rising by 9.36% in May.

Among the major stock indices on Friday, the Nasdaq performed the worst, while small-cap indices continued to outperform the broader market.

Major U.S. stock indices fell this week: the S&P, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.51%, 1.1%, and 1.44% respectively, ending five consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow fell by 0.98%, falling for two weeks after five weeks of gains, with this week's decline not exceeding the over 2.3% drop last week, which was the largest weekly drop since March last year. The Russell 2000 rose slightly by 0.02%, failing to continue the downward trend after four weeks of consecutive gains last week.

In May, major stock indices rose across the board. The S&P rose by 4.8%, the Dow rose by 2.3%, the Nasdaq rose by 6.88%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose by 6.28%, all rebounding after falling in April, marking the sixth month of increase in the past seven months. The Russell 2000 also rebounded, rising by 4.87%, marking the third month of increase in the past four months.

Among the Dow components, only Amazon, which fell by more than 1%, and Caterpillar, which fell by 0.2%, closed lower on Friday. Salesforce, which plummeted 20% on Thursday after announcing its earnings, led the gains on Friday with a 7.5% increase, followed by healthcare stock UnitedHealth with a nearly 2.9% increase Among the ten sectors that rose, except for the communication services which rose by nearly 0.6% and the non-essential consumer goods which rose by nearly 0.2%, the rest rose by at least over 1%, with energy leading the gains by rising nearly 2.5%.

This week, a total of four sectors experienced declines, with IT falling by nearly 1.5%, industrial by nearly 0.9%, communication services and healthcare by around 0.3% each, non-essential consumer goods by 0.3%, and energy performing the best by rising 2%. Real estate and utilities, which are sensitive to interest rates, rose by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. However, the IT sector saw a significant cumulative increase of nearly 10% in May, followed closely by utilities with a rise of nearly 8.5%, and real estate with a rise of nearly 5%. Energy, which only fell by nearly 1% for the whole month, experienced a cumulative decline.

The performance of the S&P energy and utilities sectors outperformed the technology-related sectors this week.

Including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, the technology giants "Big Seven" all experienced simultaneous declines during the trading session, with some rebounding towards the end. Tesla rebounded at the beginning of the session on Thursday, rising by nearly 0.9%, then turning down again in the morning, dropping by around 2.8% at one point, before erasing most of the declines to close down by 0.4%. It fell by nearly 0.7% for the week and over 2.8% for May.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Amazon fell by 3% during the session, closing down by 1.6%, marking a three-day consecutive decline to the low point since April 30. Netflix, which fell by over 2% in the morning, closed down by nearly 0.9%, marking a two-day consecutive decline to the low point since May 17. Apple, which fell by over 0.7% in the morning, rebounded towards the end of the session, marking a five-day consecutive rise, approaching the high point set on May 21 last Tuesday, close to the closing high since January 26. Microsoft, which fell by over 2% during the session, and Alphabet, which fell by over 1%, both rebounded towards the end of the session, closing up by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, temporarily leaving the low points set on May 13 and May 14. Meta, which fell by over 2% during the session, erased the decline towards the end of the session, closing up by less than 0.1%, ending the two-day consecutive decline.

Most of these six technology stocks fell for the week, with Microsoft falling by nearly 3.5%, Meta and Amazon falling by over 2%, Alphabet falling by over 1%, Netflix falling by over 0.7%, while Apple rose by 1.2%. In May, these technology stocks all rose, with Netflix up by 16.6%, Apple up by 12.9%, Meta up by 8.6%, Microsoft up by 6.6%, Alphabet up by nearly 5.7%, and Amazon up by 0.8%.

Overall, chip stocks continued to decline, with more than half of the declines narrowing during the session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX both fell by over 3% at one point, closing down by nearly 1% and around 0.8% respectively, marking a three-day consecutive decline to the low point since May 17. They fell by approximately 1.9% for the week, and rose by around 9.6% and 9.4% in May respectively In the chip sector, NVIDIA rose 2% in early trading, turned negative in the morning session, dropped as much as 3.2% at midday, then narrowed most of the losses to close down 0.8%. It has gained over 2.9% this week and over 26.8% in May. After the earnings report, Marvell Technology fell 10.5%, Broadcom fell over 2% at the close, Lam Research fell nearly 2%, Micron Technology fell 1%, while AMD, which had dropped 4% intraday, rose nearly 0.2%, and Intel rose over 2%.

NVIDIA and other tech giants in the chip sector have declined overall this week.

AI concept stocks continued to decline overall. The AI and robotics ETF Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) fell over 1% intraday, turned higher in the final trading hours to close up 0.1%. It has fallen 2.4% this week and gained 3% in May. After the earnings report, Dell opened down 15.4%, fell over 20% in the morning session, dropped nearly 23% at midday, and closed down 17.9%, marking the largest single-day decline since its U.S. IPO in December 2018. It has fallen nearly 13% this week but still gained nearly 11.6% in May, rising for seven consecutive months. At the close, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell over 5%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell nearly 2%, Astera Labs (ALAB) fell over 1%; Palantir (PLTR) fell 0.2%, while C3.ai (AI) and SoundHound.ai (SOUN) rose over 3%, and Oracle (ORCL) edged up.

Popular Chinese concept stocks fell overall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) and the related ETF Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ) fell over 2% in the morning session, closing down nearly 1.6% and 1.7% respectively, hitting new lows since their respective closing lows on May 1st. They have both fallen over 0.6% this week, with gains of nearly 2.7% and over 2.5% in May respectively. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down by about 2% and 1.8% respectively.

Among the new energy vehicle companies, XPeng Motors closed down 4%, Li Auto fell over 2%, Nio, which had risen over 1% after turning higher in the morning session, fell nearly 0.2%, while ZEEKR, which had turned higher in the morning, rose over 2%. Among other individual stocks, Tencent Music fell nearly 4%, Tencent Music, iQIYI fell over 2%, JD.com fell nearly 2%, Alibaba, Baidu, Pinduoduo, NetEase fell over 1%, while Bilibili rose by about 0.7%.

In volatile stocks, after reporting first-quarter EPS earnings far exceeding expectations, revenue also higher than expected and raising full-year guidance, fast fashion giant Gap (GAP) closed up 28.6%, marking the largest closing gain since November 17, 2023; Cloud security company Zscaler (ZS) closed up 8.5% after beating expectations for third-quarter earnings and revenue After announcing a steady growth in sales for the first quarter, with same-store sales at Nordstrom Rack increasing by nearly 7% and reiterating full-year performance guidance, the chain department store Nordstrom (JWN) closed up 5%; after announcing former Lululemon Chief Product Officer Sun Choe will serve as the company's global brand president, clothing company VF Corp (VFC) rose by 7.7%; Faraday Future (FFIE) initially rose by over 21%, then fell in early trading by 3.5%, before rebounding in the final trading session to close up 3.2%.

On the other hand, database software company MongoDB (MDB) fell by approximately 23.9% after lowering its second quarter and full-year guidance; network security company SentinelOne (S) fell by 13.3% after its annual revenue guidance fell below expectations; and after announcing management reshuffling, co-CEO Christopher Thomas resigning, and strategic advisor Randy Peck being promoted to Chief Operating Officer, payroll and human capital management software company Paycom Software (PAYC) fell by nearly 8.6%.

In European stocks, despite Eurozone CPI accelerating faster than expected year-on-year, market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank in June remain unchanged, and temporary easing of inflation concerns in the US PCE led to a two-day rebound in the pan-European index after two consecutive days of decline. The STOXX 600 index continued to move away from the closing low since May 6 set on Wednesday. Most major European country indices closed higher. Stocks in the UK, France, and Italy rose for two consecutive days, while German and Spanish stocks rebounded and closed roughly flat and lower on Thursday, respectively.

In terms of sectors, utilities led the gains with an increase of over 1.1%, healthcare rose by nearly 1.1%. Among the constituents, Novo Nordisk, the highest market value pharmaceutical company listed in Denmark, rose by 1.1%, while the technology sector, influenced by US peers, fell by over 1.3%. Among the constituents, German-listed software giant SAP, which fell by over 4% on Thursday, dropped by nearly 1.6%, and the highest market value technology stock listed in the Netherlands, ASML, fell by nearly 1.2%.

This week, the STOXX 600 index fell for two consecutive weeks. Most country indices accumulated losses, with German, French, and UK stocks falling for three consecutive weeks, with German and French stocks falling by over 1%, Italian stocks remaining roughly flat compared to a week ago, and Spanish stocks rebounding from last week's decline. In terms of sectors, real estate rose by nearly 2% on Thursday, allowing it to rise by nearly 1.5% for the week, with telecommunications rising by 1.7% for the week, second only to real estate in terms of weekly gains, while technology fell by nearly 3.5% for the week.

In May, the STOXX 600 index accumulated a 2.6% gain, erasing the losses from April, marking the sixth month of gains in the past seven months. Country indices all saw gains, with German, French, Italian, and Spanish stocks rebounding after the April decline, while UK stocks rose for three consecutive months Most sectors have seen cumulative gains, with telecommunications up over 5%, interest rate-sensitive real estate up over 4%, and despite being at the bottom of the performance list this week, the technology sector has still seen a cumulative increase of 3.5% for the month.

PCE Post US Treasury Yield Accelerates Downward, 2-Year Yield Hits Weekly Low

The US Treasury Bond ETF iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) rose by 0.38%, marking a two-day increase. It has seen a decrease of less than 0.1% for the week and an increase of 1.1% for the month of May.

The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond rose to 4.57% in early European trading after the release of Eurozone CPI data, hitting a daily high. After the release of US PCE data, the yield accelerated downward, dropping below 4.50% in early US trading, briefly falling below 4.49%, returning to levels before the completion of two batches of US Treasury bond sales earlier in the week. It fell by about 15 basis points from the high reached on May 2nd after rising above 4.63% on Wednesday, settling around 4.50% by the end of the bond market session, dropping nearly 5 basis points during the day. After two consecutive days of increase followed by two consecutive days of decrease, the yield has risen by about 4 basis points for the week, following three weeks of decline and two weeks of increase after a sharp rise of about 48 basis points in April followed by a decrease of about 18 basis points in May, marking the second month of decline this year after March.

Performance of various US Treasury bond maturities varied this week, with short-term yields falling and medium to long-term yields still rising.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose above 4.95% in early European trading, hitting a daily high of 4.9518%. After the release of PCE data, it fell below 4.90%, briefly dropping below 4.87% in early US trading, hitting a low not seen since May 23rd. It fell by over 13 basis points from the high reached near 5.0% on May 1st, settling around 4.87% by the end of the bond market session, dropping nearly 6 basis points during the day. After four consecutive days of increase followed by three consecutive days of decrease, it has decreased by about 8 basis points for the week following a sharp increase of over 10 basis points last week and a decrease of about 17 basis points for the month of May, following a significant increase of over 40 basis points in April. This marks the second decrease this year after January.

Yields on various US Treasury bonds in May have all fallen, with the largest decrease seen in medium-term US Treasury bonds.

Post PCE, US Dollar Index Hits Daily Low, Monthly Decline for the First Time in May, Ethereum Up Nearly 20% in May

Tracking the ICE Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of six major currencies including the US Dollar against the Euro, approached 104.90 during the Asian session to refresh the daily high, rising nearly 0.2% intraday. European stocks turned lower in early trading, and the decline widened after the release of US PCE data. US stocks fell below 104.40 in early trading, refreshing the daily low and falling over 0.3% intraday, moving away from the intraday high near 105.20 set on May 13th since Thursday, then erasing most of the losses, with a short-term turnaround during midday.

By the end of Friday's forex market session, the Dollar Index was below 104.70, slightly down intraday, accumulating a slight decline this week after rebounding last week by 0.05%, with a 1.46% decline in May. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US Dollar against ten other currencies, fell by less than 0.1% intraday, with a 0.1% increase for the week and a 1.1% decline in May. Both the Dollar Index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have declined for two consecutive days, halting a four-month uptrend in May, marking the first monthly decline this year.

Among non-US currencies, the Japanese Yen failed to sustain the rebound from Thursday, with the US Dollar against the Yen approaching 157.30 during the European stock session, close to the high above 157.70 set on May 1st after rising above 157.70 on Wednesday. The Yen rose by over 0.3% intraday, but fell rapidly after the release of US PCE data, with US stocks turning lower in early trading. The US stock market fell below 156.60 in early trading, refreshing the daily low by nearly 0.2% intraday, then turning higher in early trading. After the PCE data release, the Euro against the Dollar rose above 1.0880 in pre-market trading, approaching the high above 1.0890 set on May 16th, rising nearly 0.5% intraday. Following the PCE data, the Pound against the Dollar surged to 1.2770 in early US stock trading, rising by 0.3% intraday, but fell before midday without reaching the high above 1.2800 set on March 21st.

The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) against the Dollar hit a daily high of 7.2479 during the Asian morning session, rising by 58 points intraday. After a decline during the Asian session, the downward trend continued, but narrowed after the release of US PCE data. The intraday decline was less than 20 points, but later widened, with US stocks hitting a daily low of 7.2683 in early trading, falling back by 204 points from the daily high, heading towards the intraday low since failing below 7.27 on April 16th. At 4:59 AM Beijing time on June 1st, the offshore Chinese Yuan against the Dollar was reported at 7.2630, down by 93 points from the New York closing on Thursday, falling after halting a two-day decline, with a 15-point decline this week, marking two consecutive weeks of decline, and an 82-point decline in May after rebounding in April, the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the past five months.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly tested $69,000 before the release of PCE data, with some platforms retesting this level, but then continued to fall. During midday trading, US stocks fell below $67,000 to below $66,700, refreshing the low since May 23rd, dropping by over $2,000 from the daily high, a decline of over 3%. By the market close, US stocks were above $67,600 In the past 24 hours, it has fallen by more than 1%, fallen by more than 2% in the past seven days, and risen by nearly 6% in May.

Bitcoin fell this week, but found support around $66,000.

The second largest cryptocurrency by market value, Ethereum (ETH), rose above $3,840 in pre-market trading in the US, hitting a daily high, but later continued to give up gains. During midday trading in the US stock market, there was a short-term downturn, refreshing a daily low below $3,730, dropping more than 3% from the daily high. By the closing of the US stock market, it hovered around $3,780, moving away from the low of May 24th when it tested below $3,700, rising by about 0.5% in the past 24 hours and less than 1% in the past seven days. In May, it still rose by about 18%.

PCE Crude Oil Reversed Gains Once, Closing Near Three-Month Lows, Marking the Largest Monthly Decline of the Year in May

International crude oil futures fluctuated several times on Friday. After the release of the US PCE data before the US stock market opened, they reversed gains and hit a daily high. US WTI crude oil rose to $78.62, up more than 0.9% intraday, while Brent crude oil rose to $82.18, up nearly 0.4% intraday. However, they later continued to fall. After an initial downturn in early trading, the decline expanded further. During midday trading, US oil fell to $76.67, down nearly 1%, and Brent oil fell to $81.17, down nearly 0.9% intraday.

In the end, crude oil fell for three consecutive days. WTI July crude oil futures fell by $0.92, a decrease of 1.18%, to $76.99 per barrel. Brent July crude oil futures fell by $0.24, a decrease of 0.29%, to $81.62 per barrel. Both US oil and Brent oil hit their lowest closing levels since May 23, approaching the three-month closing lows set on May 23.

US WTI crude oil briefly rose and hit a daily high after the release of the PCE data, then fell to a daily low.

US oil fell by 0.94% this week, while Brent oil fell by about 0.61%, marking two consecutive weeks of decline for Brent oil, the fourth week of decline in the past five weeks. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, US oil has fallen for the 19th week, while Brent oil has fallen for the 16th week. In May, US oil fell by about 6%, and Brent oil fell by about 7.1%, both marking the largest monthly declines of the year. US oil fell for two consecutive months after rising for three months, while Brent oil, which rose for four consecutive months, retreated.

London Zinc Falls by Over 3%, London Copper Falls for the Third Consecutive Week to a Three-Week Low, Gold and Silver Reversed Gains After PCE, Silver Futures Rose by Over 10% in May

London base metal futures continued to decline on Friday. Leading the decline, London zinc fell by over 3%, closing below $3,000 for the first time in two weeks. London aluminum, nickel, and tin all fell for two consecutive days, with the latter three hitting new lows in one week, over two weeks, and nearly three weeks, respectively Copper's decline of more than 3% on Thursday has eased, closing down by less than 1%, but it has fallen for three consecutive days, approaching the $10,000 mark for the first time in three weeks. Lead has fallen for four consecutive days, hitting a new low in over two weeks.

Basic metals have experienced a collective decline this week, with zinc, which had risen for four consecutive weeks, falling by nearly 2.9%, copper by nearly 2.8%, nickel by nearly 2.7%, and tin by nearly 0.6%, all falling for two consecutive weeks. Lead, which had risen for four weeks, fell by over 1%, while aluminum, which had risen for two weeks, fell by nearly 0.4%. In May, basic metals continued to rise across the board, with tin rising by nearly 5.9%, copper by nearly 0.5%, which is far less than the over 13% rise in April, aluminum and zinc both rising by over 2% for three consecutive months, while nickel and lead both rose by over 2% for two consecutive months.

Gold fell this week, with intraday gains at one point. After the release of the U.S. PCE data, U.S. stocks turned higher in pre-market trading and hit daily highs, with New York gold futures rising to $2381.2, up over 0.6% intraday, and spot gold approaching $2360, up over 0.4% intraday. U.S. stocks turned lower overall after early gains, hitting daily lows at midday, with futures gold falling to $2341.1, down nearly 1% intraday, and spot gold falling below $2321, down nearly 1% intraday.

By the time of the U.S. stock market midday close, COMEX June gold futures rebounded to close down 0.87% from the high on May 22, at $2345.8 per ounce, up 0.48% for the week and 1.86% for May. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) closed down 0.59%, down about 0.3% for the week and up 1.6% for May. At the close of the U.S. stock market, spot gold was below $2330, down over 0.6% intraday.

After rising for three consecutive days, New York silver futures fell for two days, with COMEX July silver futures closing down 3.47% at $30.44 per ounce, hitting a low not seen since May 16 at $29.876, down 0.19% for the week and up 14.2% for May. Both silver and gold rebounded this week after falling last week, marking the third consecutive week of gains and the third consecutive month of gains in May. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closed down 2.32%, up 0.07% for the week and 15.43% for May.

Spot gold hit daily highs after the PCE data was released, then resumed its downward trend