Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Tesla will "limited production" Optimus robots next year, the humanoid robot market has vast potential (with concept stocks)

On June 13th local time, Tesla CEO Musk announced at the annual shareholder meeting held in Austin, Texas, USA that Tesla will begin "limited production" of Optimus in 2025 and test humanoid robots in its own factory next year.

He predicted that by next year, Tesla will have "over 1,000, even thousands of operational Optimus robots."

At the shareholder meeting, Musk stated that Tesla's future direction will be "exciting" and outlined multiple "big pies" for shareholders, including the possibility of producing around 1 billion Optimus robots annually, with Tesla potentially earning $1 trillion in profit from this.

Regarding autonomous driving, Musk mentioned that Tesla's self-driving cars will be much safer than human-driven cars and will operate in a manner similar to Airbnb and Uber, where the company owns some cars and customers own others, allowing your car to earn money for you when you're not using it. Musk concluded by saying that Tesla's market value could exceed $33 trillion in the future, ten times that of the current most valuable company.

CITIC Securities assumes that humanoid robots will first commercialize in the second half of 2025 in China and the United States, and will develop along the paths of automobiles, 3C, and general manufacturing. Under optimistic/neutral/pessimistic assumptions, it is estimated that by 2030, humanoid robots will correspond to 1%/0.5%/0.2% of the total personnel demand in the manufacturing industries of China and the United States, amounting to 169.7/84.9/33.9 thousand humanoid robots.

In terms of market space, under neutral assumptions, it is projected that in the years 2026-2030, the humanoid robot domain control market space will be 5.3/24.5/63.7/108.6/151.0 billion yuan, respectively.

IDC predicts that by 2027, the robot density in China's manufacturing industry will be around 650 units per 10,000 workers, and Chinese users' market expenditure on industrial robot products will increase to approximately $16 billion by 2027.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that in the trend of robots becoming more universal, upgrades in humanoid robot algorithms will drive the growth of computing power demand and give rise to new product forms, while changes in domain control industry division of labor will create new supplier roles. The bank believes that there is a "0 to 1" industrial opportunity in the humanoid robot domain controller, with vast market space.

In this round of industrial transformation, companies in the core position of the chip industry, with strong software capabilities, hardware design, and production experience, are expected to benefit significantly.

Companies related to the humanoid robot industry chain:

UBTECH (09880): At the Create 2024 Baidu AI Developer Conference, UBTECH's humanoid robot Walker S "landed" on the scene, showcasing AI large models + humanoid robot applications.

Lenovo Group (03396): Lenovo Capital's investments in the humanoid robot field go beyond financial support, also providing strategic guidance and market resources to invested companies. For example, Lenovo Capital led a hundred million yuan angel round financing for humanoid robot R&D company "Star Era," demonstrating its optimism about the commercial prospects of humanoid robots