Keeping Musk and AI, the stock price continues to soar, but is Tesla still expensive?

Tesla shareholders breathed a sigh of relief as Musk stays.

On Thursday, Tesla shareholders approved CEO Musk's $56 billion compensation plan, while also supporting Tesla's move of its headquarters from Delaware to Texas. Tesla's stock price surged by 7% at one point, marking a 2-day consecutive increase.

This means that Musk remains the captain of the Tesla ship, but the waters ahead are still shrouded in mist.

The approval of Musk's compensation plan by shareholders relieved many analysts on Wall Street. If the plan had been rejected, Musk might have left Tesla with his AI projects. For Tesla, which heavily relies on AI to tell its story, losing its CEO would be disastrous, as the AI narrative of Tesla would be lost, leading to a significant drop in stock price.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives pointed out that the approval of this compensation plan at the Tesla shareholders' meeting will avoid the risk of Tesla's stock price falling by $20-25. However, Tesla still faces a series of challenges: fluctuating demand for electric vehicles and the daunting task of building self-driving vehicles.

After all, the era when Tesla could make significant profits by selling electric vehicles has passed, and it has now shifted its focus to AI self-driving cars and robot development.

Regarding Tesla's self-driving capabilities, Musk hopes that in the future, Tesla will be able to allow owners to add their cars to a self-driving fleet via an app like Airbnb or Uber when they are not using their vehicles, enabling owners to make money automatically through self-driving.

"You can add or remove vehicles from the fleet at any time. For example, if you are going away for a week, just tap on your Tesla app, and your car will be added... making money for you while you're away."

ARK Fund, under Tesla enthusiast Cathie Wood, predicts that by 2029, there is a 25% chance that Tesla's stock price could hit $3,100. Based on Tesla's closing price of $182 on Thursday, this prediction is very aggressive.

ARK points out: "By 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market value and profits will be attributed to the robotaxi self-driving business. Meanwhile, electric vehicles may only account for one-fourth of Tesla's total sales and 10% of Tesla's profit potential, as we believe the profit margin of the robotaxi business will be much higher." (The image below breaks down revenue, EBITDA, and market value by business line.)

Regarding Tesla's robot Optimus, Musk stated: he believes Optimus will bring huge profits to the company. He said that the valuation of Optimus may have been overlooked because Tesla has the ability to produce approximately 100 million Optimus robots per year. Musk mentioned that the price of Optimus will be lower than the price of cars. If Tesla has a 10% market share and each robot is priced at $20,000, Tesla could earn $1 trillion in profit annually when mass-producing.

However, these transformations will take a long time. The only thing that can keep investors confident during this period is Musk himself. Any doubts about him will have a significant impact on Tesla's valuation. Tesla's forward P/E ratio for the next 12 months is as high as 70 times, far exceeding other tech giants.

Meanwhile, Tesla's stock price has been continuously declining. As of the close on Wednesday, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 29% this year, underperforming the S&P 500 index's 14% increase and the Nasdaq 100 index's 16% increase. Tesla's market value is now about $565 billion, lower than the peak of $1.24 trillion in 2021.

Due to Tesla's first-quarter electric vehicle sales being significantly lower than expected, and the sales forecast for the second quarter not optimistic, coupled with uncertainties surrounding the Robotaxi autonomous driving taxi that Tesla plans to launch in August, some investors are worried that even if Musk's compensation plan is approved, it may not help maintain Tesla's stock price momentum.

"No matter the outcome of the vote, Tesla needs to find a solution to the immense pressure as soon as possible," pointed out David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Ultimately, investors want to see profit growth. Once Tesla can demonstrate to investors that its profits will steadily increase, the stock is likely to regain favor