Guotai Junan Securities: Tesla's 2024 Shareholders' Meeting, Robot Hand Freedom Degree Increased, Mass Production Plan Slightly Below Expectations

According to the Wise Finance APP, Guotai Junan Securities released a research report stating that Tesla held its 2024 shareholder meeting and announced the latest progress on humanoid robots. The dexterity of the hands has been significantly improved, with production plans slightly below expectations. Currently, Tesla has two Optimus robots working at the Fremont factory, removing batteries from the production line and placing them in shipping containers. Musk expects to complete a major hardware modification by the end of 2024 or early 2025; it is expected that the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will exceed 1:1 in the future. In addition, the next-generation dexterous hands will increase from 11 degrees of freedom to 22 degrees of freedom. The increased freedom will lead to a higher demand for motors, and the dexterous hand motors can adopt either a hollow cup motor or a brushless slotted motor solution.

Investment Advice:

Tesla held its 2024 shareholder meeting and announced the latest progress on humanoid robots, with production plans slightly below expectations. Overall: Beneficiaries include Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control. Dexterity: Recommended targets are Mingzhi Electric, with beneficiaries being Zhaowei Electromechanical. Reducers: Recommended targets are Fengli Intelligent, with beneficiaries being Shuanghuan Transmission, Zhongdali De, and Sling. Screws: Recommended targets are Wuzhou Xinchun, Hengli Hydraulic, with beneficiaries being Best and Beite Technology. Screw equipment: Beneficiaries include Zhehai Deman, Rifate Precision Machinery, and Huachen Equipment. Sensors: Recommended targets are Donghua Testing, with beneficiaries being Keli Sensing and Ampere Dragon.

Production plans slightly below expectations. Currently, Tesla has two Optimus robots working at the Fremont factory, removing batteries from the production line and placing them in shipping containers. Musk expects to complete a major hardware modification by the end of 2024 or early 2025. It is expected that by 2025, Tesla will have over 1,000, or even thousands of Optimus robots working at Tesla. It is estimated that by 2026, Optimus will be able to perform various tasks, including tasks that have not been performed before.

Long-term outlook for humanoid robots is vast. Musk expects the ratio of humanoid robots to humans to exceed 1:1 in the future, with the number of humanoid robots expected to exceed 10 billion. Assuming a manufacturing cost of $10,000 per unit and a selling price of $20,000 per unit, Tesla is expected to capture over 10% of the market share.

Changes in the dexterity hand solution. The next-generation dexterous hand will increase from 11 degrees of freedom to 22 degrees of freedom and will be able to play the piano. With the increase in freedom, the demand for motors will also increase. The dexterous hand motors can adopt either a hollow cup motor or a brushless slotted motor solution.

Risk Warning: 1) The technological development process of humanoid robots is slower than expected; 2) Commercial application scenarios are slower than expected; 3) Cost reduction process is slower than expected; 4) Industrial policy implementation is slower than expected