Not only car manufacturers are pressing the accelerator to go global, but also lithium battery factories | Jianzhi Research

In May this year, despite the reduction in discounts for new energy vehicles, sales still showed a high increase compared to the previous month, with a penetration rate reaching a new historical high of 47%.

The domestic power battery market has gradually shaken off the impact of the first half of the year's off-season and has quickly recovered. It is worth noting that starting from the second quarter of this year, the export speed of batteries from major domestic power battery manufacturers has significantly increased, no longer solely relying on CATL for battery exports.

In May of this year, the production of domestic power batteries reached 82.7GWh, an increase of 5.7% compared to the previous month and a 34.7% year-on-year increase; sales were 77.9GWh, a 40.7% year-on-year increase and a 14.3% increase compared to the previous month; and installed capacity reached 39.9GWh, a 41.2% year-on-year increase and a 12.6% increase compared to the previous month. In particular, the installation growth rates of solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries have been extremely rapid, with an installed capacity of 0.48GWh, and the total installed capacity ratio exceeding 1% for the first time.

1. Market Share of Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries Exceeds 70%, Solid-State Batteries Enter a Period of Rapid Growth

The market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has stabilized at over 70%, marking the era of a 7:3 ratio between lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries.

In May of this year, the production, sales, and installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 60.5GWh, 35.9GWh, and 29.5GWh respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.5%, 17%, and 54.1%, and ratios of 73.1%, 63.9%, and 74% respectively.

The production, sales, and installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries reached 22GWh, 20.2GWh, and 10.4GWh, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 6.2%, and 14.7%, and ratios of 26.6%, 35.9%, and 26% respectively.

The most market-focused semi-solid-state batteries continue to experience high growth, with an installed capacity of 0.48GWh in May, far exceeding the growth rate of liquid power batteries, reaching 30%.

In the first five months of this year, the cumulative installed capacity of semi-solid-state batteries reached 1.62GWh, accounting for over 1% of the total installed capacity, achieving a breakthrough from 0 to 1 in market share.

In the first half of this year, the main supplier of semi-solid-state batteries was still Amperex Technology Limited (ATL). However, in the second half of the year, more players in the semi-solid-state battery market with GWh-level battery production capacity will join in, gradually alleviating the capacity constraints on semi-solid-state battery installations The largest solid-state battery production project in the country, Qingtao (Kunshan) solid-state lithium battery, officially started production in June this year. The first phase of the project has an annual capacity of up to 3.5GWh, enough to cover the installation volume of similar products in the first half of this year (around 2GWh). After the subsequent projects reach full production within three years, the capacity will increase to 10GWh.

In addition, battery manufacturers such as Hui Energy Technology and Lingxin New Energy (0.5GWh) have also started production of solid-state battery production lines. The future potential of solid-state batteries has been recognized by end-users of new energy vehicles, but with the increase in production capacity, competition will also become more intense.

2. Major power battery manufacturers are accelerating exports

This year, the main theme for power battery manufacturers is accelerating their overseas expansion.

In May of this year, China's power battery exports reached 9.8GWh, an increase of 8.9% compared to the previous month. Among them, the export volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 3.4GWh, accounting for 34.8%; the export volume of ternary lithium batteries was 6.3GWh, accounting for 64.5%. Currently, ternary lithium batteries, which are highly favored in overseas new energy vehicle markets, still maintain their advantage.

Specifically for power battery manufacturers themselves, in the first five months of this year, the cumulative export growth of power batteries for companies such as BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy, Gotion, and Microvast has far exceeded 100%, with the fastest growth rate of Hefei Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy reaching 1063.6%.

It is worth noting that not only leading and second-tier power battery manufacturers, but also tail-end power battery manufacturers are seizing the export opportunities. Many manufacturers that had previously reduced or stopped production and no longer continued battery installation in China have re-entered the power battery market this year. From January to May this year, a total of 48 power battery enterprises in China achieved battery installation, an increase of 5 companies compared to the same period last year.

This has also led to a significant increase in the market share of domestic power battery manufacturers in overseas markets. Not only did the leading company CATL surpass LG Chem for the first time with a market share of 28.2%, winning the crown for installed capacity, but other manufacturers such as BYD, Gotion Technology, Contemporary Amperex Technology, and Farasis Energy have also entered the top ten rankings.

Overall, Chinese power battery manufacturers held a market share of nearly 37% in the overseas market from January to April this year, and the era where Chinese power battery manufacturers will soon dominate alongside Japanese and Korean manufacturers may be approaching The rapid rise of solid-state batteries is adding variables to the power battery market competition, bringing opportunities to major power battery manufacturers. At the same time, second and third-tier power battery manufacturers joining the overseas battery market with CATL are also expected to achieve profit growth by increasing their market share overseas