Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Demand or Implementation brought by Apple AI Institutions focus on this round of Apple replacement cycle (with concept stocks)

Apple's Senior Vice President Craig Federighi stated that Apple will continue to collaborate with third-party models outside of OpenAI (such as Google's Gemini model).

From this pattern, it can be seen that Apple is confident in developing its own models and using them.

Apple's last round of upgrades occurred during the 5G upgrade in the 20-21 fiscal year. On October 13, 2020, Apple launched its first 5G phone, the iPhone 12 series. From the shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2020, a significant year-on-year growth trend can be observed, which continued into the third quarter of 2021.

On an annual basis, in 2020, iPhone shipments reached 203 million units (an increase of 12 million units year-on-year), and in 2021, iPhone shipments reached 236 million units (an increase of 33 million units year-on-year). Subsequently, the iPhone entered another period of stock cycle.

The replacement trend driven by AI is stronger than the replacement trend driven by 5G upgrades, as Apple's relative advantage in AI is stronger (on 5G, there is no fundamental difference between Android and Apple, both achieve higher network transmission rates; on AI, Apple's system-level AI advantage is significant, while Android has not yet integrated cross-application data calls, resulting in a clear gap). In addition, the attractiveness of AI to the target consumers of consumer electronics products may also be greater.

Institutions are optimistic about the iPhone replacement cycle among its massive user base. They believe that the iPhone is expected to experience strong replacement momentum in 2025, with iPhone shipments in 2024/2025/2026 potentially reaching 225+/240/240+ million units, entering an upward trend in shipments.

Nomura Orient International Securities believes that as the generative AI base gradually solidifies, the application layer is penetrating from the cloud to the edge, and the landing of end-side application scenarios such as mobile phones and PCs is gradually unfolding. Apple's comprehensive ecosystem scheduling capabilities are expected to help accelerate its rapid development in edge AI fields. Apple's entry into the AI terminal market will further drive the accelerated landing of edge AI, potentially redefining end-device usage scenarios and driving the hardware replacement cycle.

Guojin Securities research report states that Apple's hardware products have a large global user base, and AI is expected to empower hardware products, accelerate the replacement cycle, and continue to favor core companies in the Apple industry chain.

Apple's mobile phone industry chain related companies:

BYD Electronics (00285), AAC Technologies (02018), GoerTek (01415), Hongteng Precision (06088)