"Three Witching Days" concludes with a surge in US stock trading volume, are tech stocks overbought? | Overseas Major Asset Weekly Report

During the week of June 17-21, the U.S. stock market closed the week on Friday with the "Triple Witching Day", with options worth nearly $5.5 trillion expiring on Wall Street, coupled with ETF major repositioning due to end-of-quarter index adjustments, leading to intense market volatility.

The U.S. exchanges saw a turnover of 18 billion shares that day, a 55% increase from the average level of the past three months, with the S&P 500 Index's trading volume at the close surging 30% above the daily average level.

The S&P 500 rose for three consecutive weeks, the Nasdaq wiped out its weekly gains, and the Dow held steady at a four-week high. Chip stocks retreated for two consecutive days, with the industry index falling 1% for the week. Some analysts believe that recent technical indicators and the influx of funds into tech stocks both indicate that tech stocks have been overbought in the short term and may have risen excessively, so a short-term pullback is not unexpected. The momentum driving up Nvidia's stock price may weaken after the options expire this Friday.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell by 0.73%, marking the second day of decline in five trading days, with bank stocks leading the decline, but still up 0.8% for the week. Political turmoil in France brought a turning point, with the stock index up 1.7% for the week. European semiconductor stocks generally fell.

U.S. bond yields fell to daily lows ahead of positive U.S. PMI data release, then rebounded. The more interest rate-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points for the week. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.28%, up nearly 4 basis points for the week, after U.S. bond yields hit a ten-week low since early April last Friday. The spread between French and German bond yields widened to a twelve-year high.

Summer travel and cooling fuel demand drove oil prices up for two consecutive weeks. WTI rose by over 3.43% in the four trading days this week, up 3.9% last week after three weeks of decline. Brent crude rose by 3.17% for the week, also rising for two consecutive weeks, up 2.8% last week. U.S. natural gas rose by over 6% for the week.

Market expectations of cooling economic data supporting an early rate cut in the U.S. boosted precious metals. Elections in various regions globally and escalating conflicts in the Middle East provided support for safe-haven assets, and gold prices were expected to rise for a second consecutive week. However, on Friday gold quickly turned lower after hitting a two-week high, ending the week down by about 0.6%. Spot silver fell by 0.2% for the week.

Spot palladium briefly rose by 11% and briefly broke through the $1,000 integer mark to a one-month high. Analysts believe that due to automakers actively replenishing catalytic converters for internal combustion engine vehicles, investors covered short positions in palladium. A stronger U.S. dollar pressured London industrial metals prices.

The European Central Bank's monetary policy stance is more dovish than the Federal Reserve's, continuing to support the U.S. dollar in the short term. The U.S. dollar index rose for three consecutive weeks, the yen fell below 109 to an eight-week low, while the euro and pound hit at least five-week lows.

This week, the optional consumer sector rose by 2.5%, the energy sector accumulated a growth of over 1.8%, the financial sector rose by 1.70%, the industrial sector rose by 1.55%, the daily consumer goods sector rose by 0.89%, the telecommunications sector rose by 0.77%, the raw materials sector rose by 0.76%, the healthcare sector rose by 0.58%, the real estate sector fell by 0.45%, the technology sector fell by 0.66%, and the utilities sector fell by 0.77%