Nomura BYD In-depth Report: Hybrid will be the next breakthrough, this year's "going global" revenue share will exceed 20%

Recently, Nomura released the latest in-depth report on BYD, clearly stating that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will outperform battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024, becoming the main driver of BYD's next growth phase.

Furthermore, the report predicts that BYD's overseas market revenue share will exceed 20% this year. With these positive factors in mind, Nomura has raised BYD's target price from 276 yuan to 312 yuan and reiterated a "buy" rating.

Hybrid Vehicles to Become a New Growth Point

The report mentions that since the end of February this year, BYD has started to reduce prices, coupled with its latest DM-i 5.0 hybrid platform upgrade, BYD has shown strong performance in the past few months, with an increase in order volume recently.

In the domestic market, especially in a situation where joint venture car companies find it difficult to compete effectively, Nomura expects BYD to continue to maintain its leading position in the Chinese market in 2024, with wholesale shipments expected to exceed 3.7 million units for the year.

In terms of specific models, the report is optimistic about the Qin L, Song 06, as well as upcoming models such as the Song L DM-i, Tang L, and Han L, among others. It is expected that the sales growth of these PHEV models will outpace BEVs. Nomura believes that BYD's hybrid technology and product layout give it a significant advantage in market competition.

Huge Potential for Overseas Expansion

In addition to the domestic market, BYD's overseas expansion plans are also promising. Although the EU recently raised tariffs, the report believes that this will have limited impact on BYD's short-term shipment volume or profit margins.

With BYD's production capacity gradually increasing in Thailand, Brazil, and Hungary, as well as plans to potentially establish a second factory in Europe, the company's prospects for further penetration in global markets are promising.

Nomura expects that in 2024, 13% of BYD's passenger car shipments and 23% of revenue will come from overseas markets.

Target Price Raised to 312 Yuan

Against the backdrop of challenges in the global new energy vehicle market, BYD has demonstrated strong development momentum with its advantages in technology, products, and market layout.

According to the report, BYD's compound annual growth rates for shipments, revenue, and profits during the fiscal years 2023 to 2026 are 18%, 17%, and 20% respectively. Nomura has raised BYD's target price to 312 yuan, implying price-to-earnings ratios of 26 times and 21 times for 2024 and 2025, respectively, while the current stock price corresponds to a 2024 price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times.

Nomura believes that BYD not only dominates the Chinese market but also possesses strong competitiveness globally due to its leading hybrid technology and active expansion in international markets.

With several new models based on the DM-i 5.0 platform set to be launched, BYD is expected to continue to perform strongly in the Chinese market in the coming months, especially in hybrid vehicle sales.

Simultaneously, further penetration into overseas markets and expansion plans will help the company establish a solid position in the global market