Morgan Stanley: US stock market rally is expected to continue focusing on recommending high-quality large-cap stocks and defensive stocks
Morgan Stanley stated that the upward trend in the US stock market will remain narrow. Wall Street bears predict that only shocks to the economy or bond market can drive broader trading. It is expected that the market performance will continue to be narrow unless there is a rebound in the bond market or a slowdown in economic growth. Wall Street strategists recommend investing in high-quality large-cap stocks and defensive stocks, and avoiding the temptation to chase the expansion of the uptrend. The Economic Surprises Index continues to decline, and the S&P 500 Index remains calm in the face of weaker economic data
According to the latest information from Zhitong Finance, Mike Wilson, a well-known Wall Street bear and strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that the US stock market needs to be shaken by the economy or the bond market in order to see greater trading breadth. Wilson wrote in a report: "In our view, the combination of substantial fiscal stimulus and tight monetary policy is squeezing out many companies and consumers in an unsustainable way. Investors have realized this outcome, thus driving up the stocks of a few companies that are performing well in the current environment. Unless the bond market rebounds with higher term premiums or economic growth slows in a more meaningful way, we expect this narrow market performance to continue."
Wilson added that the Economic Surprises Index "has been declining throughout the year, hitting a new low last week." The analyst pointed out: "So far, the S&P 500 Index has remained unfazed by weaker economic data, while considering the expectations of Fed rate cuts, viewing bad economic data as favorable for quality large-cap stocks. At the same time, several other indices have seen declines, with some indices being negative year-to-date."
Wilson recently abandoned his long-standing bearish forecast for the stock market in 2024, suggesting a barbell investment approach for quality large-cap growth stocks and defensive stocks, while abandoning cyclical stocks, "avoiding the temptation to chase the truly expanding trend."