Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Overcoming High Cost Barriers, the U.S. Electric Vehicle Market Will See a Turning Point in Growth in 2028

Bank of America Merrill Lynch stated that with the advancement of technology and market development, the U.S. electric vehicle market will usher in a new wave of growth in 2028. However, before that, it still needs to overcome the obstacle of high costs.

On Monday local time, analysts including John Murphy from Bank of America Merrill Lynch released a research report pointing out that although the product channels of electric vehicles remain stable, the growth rate of their penetration in the U.S. market is expected to remain slow until 2028.

The report indicates that since 2024, the sales growth rate of electric vehicles has been only 0.8%, far below the 55.7% in 2023, and its penetration rate has also decreased from 7.5% in 2023 to an average of 6.8% since 2024.

This slowdown is mainly attributed to the pricing issue of electric vehicles, as currently only 3% of electric vehicles are priced below $37,000, compared to over 50% of gasoline and hybrid vehicles priced below that level.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that price competitiveness is crucial for the popularization of electric vehicles.

Including gasoline vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and electric vehicles, currently, 26% of vehicle models in the U.S. market are sold at prices above $55,000, while 50% of vehicle models are priced below $42,000. This data indicates that for electric vehicles to make a greater breakthrough in the market, they must have stronger price competitiveness.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts used both bottom-up and top-down analysis methods to predict the penetration rate of electric vehicles, and the results all indicate that the popularization of electric vehicles has been delayed by a year or more.

Among them, the bottom-up method predicts that the penetration rates of electric vehicles from 2024 to 2027 will reach 11%, 15%, 20%, and 25% respectively; the top-down method predicts a penetration rate of 8% in 2024, 14% in 2027, and 29% in 2030 (previously 33%).

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest "Car Wars" analysis report, although the supply of new product lines for electric vehicles has decreased, the supply is still sufficient.

The report predicts that from 2025 to 2028, 60% of all vehicle supplies will be hybrid, electric, fuel cell, and other powertrain models, including the supply of 113 new models of electric vehicles. This proportion has decreased from the previous forecast of 64%.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that the cost of OEM production of electric vehicles may fall to a level comparable to traditional internal combustion engines by 2028. **This means that although lower prices for electric vehicles could potentially stimulate greater demand in the market, these OEMs do not have strong incentives or economic motivations to significantly increase the production of electric vehicles due to cost considerations **

However, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that after 2028, as OEMs introduce new vehicle platforms, production costs are expected to decrease, and the adoption rate of electric vehicles will experience accelerated growth.