The S&P Nasdaq Composite Index halted its three-day decline, with NVIDIA rebounding by 6.8%, while Alphabet and Microsoft hit new highs, and oil prices fell by 1%

FOMC voter and Federal Reserve Board member Bowman hawkish remarks, stating willingness to support rate hikes if inflation does not continue to improve, now is not the right time to start cutting rates, multiple upside risks to the inflation outlook, no rate cut action expected in 2024.

Some analysts say that several Federal Reserve officials have stated the need to wait for "some time" and more inflation cooling data before discussing rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President and FOMC voter Daly refused to cut rates preemptively to combat deteriorating labor market conditions and economic slowdown.

But another voter and Fed Board member, Kocherlakota, said on Tuesday that a rate cut would be appropriate "at some point," with risks to the employment and inflation targets more balanced, and inflation expected to slow more sharply in 2025.

The U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence, present situation, and expectations indices all declined, with respondents expecting the proportion of those expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months falling to the lowest level since 2011. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index for April cooled slightly from its highs.

After four consecutive months of easing pressure, Canada's May CPI inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year, hindering a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in July, with the USD/CAD falling more than 40 pips in the short term. In addition, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates twice this year.

FedEx's annual profit outlook exceeded expectations, benefiting from deep cost cuts, with its stock price rising 15% after hours. Some analysts say its financial report is usually a leading indicator of the U.S. economy. "Tesla's rival" Rivian received a $5 billion investment from Volkswagen, with its stock price rising 46% after hours.

S&P 500 Ends Three-Day Decline, Dow Falls for the First Time in Six Days, Google and Microsoft Hit New Highs, NVIDIA Rebounds 6.8%

On Tuesday, June 25th, U.S. stock indexes continued to diverge, with the Dow opening lower and falling, dropping more than 410 points or 1% at its lowest, briefly falling below the 39,000 mark, with Walmart falling 3.4% at one point, breaking away from its all-time high and posting its largest two-month decline. The Philadelphia Bank Index fell more than 1.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose with the help of chip stocks like NVIDIA, with both the Nasdaq and chip indices rising more than 1%. The U.S. tech stock index ETF and biotech index ETF led the gains.

At the close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all ended their three-day declines, with the S&P moving away from a one-week low, the Nasdaq moving away from a two-week low, and the Dow ending its five-day rally and moving away from a nearly five-week high:

The S&P 500 rose 21.43 points, or 0.39%, to 5469.30. The Dow fell 299.05 points, or 0.76%, to 39112.16. The Nasdaq rose 220.84 points, or 1.26%, to 17717.65.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech sector components, rose 1.8%, both previously breaking away from new highs for three consecutive days. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell 0.4%, while the "fear index" VIX fell more than 3% to below 13 S&P Nasdaq stops falling for three days, Dow falls for the first time in six days.

JPMorgan's chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic warned that the decline in inflation data is not only sparking hopes of rate cuts but also suggesting concerns about economic growth, which may be one of the main risks facing financial markets in the next phase. Strategists at BNY Mellon also stated that if economic data continues to weaken, stock market gains will not be sustainable unless the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in September increases.

On Tuesday, the US tech sector rebounded.

Star tech stocks rise together. "Metaverse" Meta rose 2.3% to a more than ten-week high, Alphabet A rose 2.7% to hit a new historical high, Amazon rose 0.4% approaching a six-week high, Tesla rose 2.6%, Netflix rose 0.5% off a one-week low; Apple rose 0.5% and rose for two consecutive days, with a market value of $3.21 trillion ranking second in the US stock market; Microsoft rose 0.7% to hit a new historical high, with a market value of $3.35 trillion as the largest in the US stock market.

Chip stocks rebound significantly after a three-day pullback. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.8%, and the industry ETF SOXX rose 1.5%, both moving away from a two-week low. NVIDIA rose 6.8%, ending a three-day decline and moving away from a three-week low. Yesterday, it fell 6.7%, marking the largest two-month decline, with a market value back above $3.10 trillion ranking third in the US stock market. NVIDIA's double long ETF rose nearly 14%; however, Broadcom fell 0.7%, falling for five consecutive days from the highest point; Qualcomm rose 0.7%, ARM rose over 6%, TSMC's US stock and Lam Research rose 2.8%, Applied Materials rose 1.9%, Micron Technology turned up 1.5%, all of which had previously moved away from new highs for three consecutive days; Intel rose 0.6%, AMD fell 2.4% and closed flat.

NVIDIA rebounds significantly and is close to breaking away from the technical retracement.

AI concept stocks rise more than fall. CrowdStrike rose 2.3%, having previously moved away from new highs for four days, Oracle fell 0.5%, moving away from new highs for four consecutive days, SoundHound.ai fell 1.5%, BigBear.ai rose over 6%, C3.ai fell over 1%, Snowflake fell 0.5% hitting a new 17-month low, Palantir rose 1.7%, Adobe rose 0.5%, Dell rose 2%, AMD rose about 2%, IBM fell 1.4% On the news front, the sell-off that evaporated NVIDIA's market value of $430 billion has temporarily paused, with traders looking at charts to find a bottom. Ari Wald, Oppenheimer's technical analysis director, stated that the long-term trend remains strong, with the stock price well above the 50-day moving average of $101 and the 100-day moving average of $92. Bank of America reiterated a "buy" rating on NVIDIA and included it in its best stock list. The EU accused Microsoft of "abusing" the bundling of popular productivity applications in Teams and Office365, violating antitrust rules. Goldman Sachs reiterated a "buy" rating on Microsoft, optimistic about the lucrative returns from investment in generative AI. Evercore ISI reiterated a "buy" rating on Apple, optimistic about the potential rise in iPhone revenue. Wells Fargo reiterated a "sell" rating on Tesla, expecting quarterly deliveries to be below 400,000 electric vehicles, while Royal Bank of Canada lowered its second-quarter delivery expectations for Tesla by 23% to 410,000 vehicles. Eli Lilly's stock price hit a new high as it entered into a partnership with OpenAI.

Chinese concept stocks fell back. ETF KWEB fell by 1.4%, CQQQ fell by 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by 1.3%, approaching 5900 points, marking the sixth day of decline in seven trading days, returning to nearly a ten-week low.

Most popular stocks declined, with JD.com falling by 2.8%, Baidu by 0.2%, Pinduoduo by 1%. Alibaba fell by 1.3%, Tencent ADR by 0.8%, Bilibili by around 3%, Nio by 1.6%, XPeng reversed to rise by 1%, Li Auto initially fell by over 2% but then turned to rise by 0.1%, Faraday Future fell by 33% and closed down nearly 19% to a six-week low after the board approved a reverse stock split, and BYD ADR fell by nearly 1%.

On the news front, Baidu's Wenxin flagship model is now free for the first time, and Tongyi Qianwen announced the OpenAI user migration plan. Berkshire Hathaway once again reduced its holdings in BYD, reducing its stake to 5.99%.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Carnival Cruise Line rose by 8.7% to a near six-month high, unexpectedly profitable in the second quarter and revenue exceeding expectations, raising full-year profit forecasts, stating that leisure demand in 2025 will be stronger than this year, and trip prices will rise.

SolarEdge Technologies, a photovoltaic component power optimizer company, fell by over 20% to a seven-year low, issuing $300 million in convertible preferred bonds privately, with a maturity date of 2029. A customer owing the company $11.4 million has filed for bankruptcy.

European stocks Novo Nordisk rose by 4%, reaching a historical high along with its US stocks, as semaglutide was approved in China for long-term weight management, achieving an average weight reduction of 17%. Weight loss drug concept stock Zealand Pharma rose by 9.5%, jointly driving the Danish stock index up by 2.7% to a new high European stocks Airbus fell more than 12% and then fell more than 9%, with its US stocks falling more than 6% and then dropping to a seven-month low by 1.8%, lowering its 2024 pretax profit target and commercial aircraft delivery volume expectations, facing ongoing supply chain issues and an additional cost of 900 million euros in the space systems division.

European stocks generally fell, with the German stock index leading the decline. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 0.23%, falling for the third day in seven days, with the technology and industrial sectors leading the decline by more than 1%. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense Index fell by as much as 5% at one point, marking the largest drop since November 2021.

The US bond yields erased the small intraday gains at the close, with short-term European bond yields rising relatively more.

Awaiting heavyweight inflation data on Friday, US bond yields rose slightly again before turning lower.

During the session, the US Treasury continued to issue $690 billion in two-year Treasury notes, with a bid rate of 4.706% (compared to 4.917% on May 28), a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.75 (compared to 2.41 previously). At that time, US bond yields were still hovering near daily highs. Some analysts said that the $70 billion five-year US bond auction on Wednesday would further illustrate the potential demand trend.

The more interest rate-sensitive two-year US bond yields rose by 2 basis points at one point and approached 4.76%, with US stocks erasing gains at the close. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by more than 1 basis point to 4.26%, with US stocks turning lower to 4.24% at the close, after US bond yields had fallen to their lowest level in ten weeks since early April over a week ago.

The 10-year benchmark German bond yield in the eurozone fell slightly to trade at 2.41%, while the two-year yield rose slightly. The 10-year UK bond yield edged lower, while the two-year yield rose by more than 2 basis points, with previous data showing unexpected acceleration in Canadian inflation.

Oil prices fell by 1%, with US oil falling below $81, Brent oil pressuring below $85, breaking away from the eight-week high.

Oil prices rose and then fell back. WTI August crude oil futures closed down $0.80, a drop of over 0.99%, at $80.83 per barrel, having hit the highest level since the end of April last week. Brent August crude oil futures closed down $1, a drop of over 1.16%, at $85.01 per barrel, breaking away from the eight-week high set on April 30 after surpassing $86 yesterday.

US oil WTI saw the deepest drop of $0.91 or more than 1% during the session, falling below the $81 integer mark, after three consecutive trading days last week hitting a seven-week high. The more actively traded international Brent September futures saw the deepest drop of over $1 or a 1.2% decline, falling below $85 and pressuring below $84 Oil prices fell by 1%, with Brent oil falling below $85, breaking away from an eight-week high.

Some analysts believe that as tensions escalate on the Israel-Lebanon border, the focus is once again on the supply risks in the Middle East. In addition, mainstream investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Citigroup are optimistic about the fuel demand brought by the peak summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere and indoor cooling. In June, U.S. oil and Brent oil have respectively risen by 4.9% and 4.1%, reversing the downturn when the OPEC+ decision to increase production at the end of the year was just announced.

Some analysts believe that the combination of geopolitical risks and bullish fundamentals may bring further upward pressure after Brent oil breaks through $85 per barrel. However, some warn that if U.S. oil falls below $81 per barrel, the upward momentum in oil prices may fade, and funds may start to liquidate long positions.

European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose nearly 3%, moving away from a two-week low, while ICE UK futures rose over 2% at the close. U.S. natural gas August contracts fell by 3%, once again approaching a two-week low, with a year-to-date increase of about 11%. U.S. gasoline futures have risen by 19% year-to-date.

The U.S. Dollar Strengthens, the Japanese Yen Continues to Approach 160, Offshore Renminbi Lingering at a Seven-Month Low, Bitcoin Rises Above $62,000

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.3% to above 105.80, having previously broken through 105.90 last Friday to its highest level in over seven weeks since May 1, with a weekly cumulative increase of 0.2% and a three-week consecutive rise.

The U.S. dollar returns to its high level since last Wednesday.

The euro fell by 0.2% against the U.S. dollar and briefly fell below 1.07, approaching its lowest level in over seven weeks since the end of April, with a 1% decline in June. The British pound slightly rose against the U.S. dollar but still below the 1.27 level, slightly moving away from its lowest level in five weeks since mid-May. The offshore renminbi against the U.S. dollar fell to a daily low at the beginning of U.S. stock trading, briefly falling below 7.29 yuan, then narrowing its decline, still lingering at a seven-month low.

The Japanese yen fell to 159.79 against the U.S. dollar, attempting to approach the psychological level of 160 for several days, and fell to 159.70 during U.S. stock trading, still hovering near its lowest level in nearly eight weeks since April 29, also the lowest level in thirty-four years.

Market speculations suggest that 160 is a warning line for the Japanese government's intervention in the foreign exchange market. The huge interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. has caused the yen to fall by 1.5% in June and more than 10% against the U.S. dollar year-to-date. The yen against the euro hit a historic low of 171.49, and against the pound, it lingered near a sixteen-year low of 202.33.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies collectively rebound after several days of continuous decline. The largest cryptocurrency leader, Bitcoin, rose by 3% and returned above $62,000. Yesterday, it fell by 7% during U.S. stock trading, falling below the psychological level of $60,000, briefly dropping below $59,000, hitting its lowest level in nearly eight weeks since May 1 The second largest Ethereum rose more than 1% on Tuesday and broke through $3400, breaking away from the five-week low since mid-May.

Bitcoin rose 3% and returned above $62,000.

Spot gold fell below $2320 to a one-week low, London copper at a ten-week low, New York cocoa futures down 10% again

The US dollar and US bond yields rose together, putting pressure on precious metal prices. COMEX August gold futures fell 0.6% to $2330.90 per ounce at the close, while COMEX July silver futures fell 2.1% to $28.905 per ounce.

Spot gold fell by nearly $19 or 0.8% intraday, falling below the $2320 integer mark to a one-week low. Last week, it approached $2370 to hit a two-week high, but it plummeted during Friday's session and turned lower for the week. Gold prices have fallen over 5% from the historical high of around $2450 set on May 20. Spot silver fell by 2.5%, dropping below $29 to a six-week low.

Gold returned to last Friday's level, with the daily low falling below $2320.

The rise of the US dollar led to a decline in most London industrial base metals. Dr. Copper, a leading economic indicator, fell by $90 or 0.9%, falling below the $9600 integer mark to a ten-week low since mid-April. London aluminum fell slightly, remaining below $2500 and hovering near a two-month low. London zinc rose by 0.9%, London lead rose by over 1%, London nickel fell by 0.9% to refresh a twelve-week low since early April, and London tin fell by 1.5%.

New York cocoa futures fell by 10% again, hitting a one-month low. Some analysts are concerned that the record high prices to be shown in the global report for the second quarter next month may disrupt demand. Cocoa prices have risen by 88% this year and are expected to achieve the best performance since 1980