Goldman Sachs: Attention, the risks of the US election are starting to impact the market

The U.S. presidential election debate is in full swing. In the secondary market, U.S. stocks are responding enthusiastically, with all three major stock indexes trading in the green.

Currently, the S&P 500 index is up 0.091% to 5482.87 points. Despite the S&P index not falling by more than 2% for nearly 400 trading days, Goldman Sachs recently pointed out that this situation may soon change.

Goldman Sachs analyst Oscar Ostlund believes that the options market typically starts pricing in about three months before the election. Although we have not fully entered this stage yet, market volatility is expected to pick up soon. With the U.S. election approaching, market volatility is set to rise, and the market should closely monitor the potential impact of the election on the market.

Goldman Sachs: Election Risks Have Started to Spread to Financial Markets

Today's televised debate may provide new clues on how the market views the impact of the election on asset markets. After surveying 800 global institutional investors, Goldman Sachs analysts summarized three key points:

▲ Regardless of whether the Republicans or Democrats win, the government will increase the spending flexibility of the executive branch, which is undoubtedly a negative factor for the bond market.

▲ If Trump wins, whether it's a divided House or a unified government, the market believes it will be beneficial for the stock market, as this may mean the Fed will adopt a more dovish policy.

▲ Investors generally believe that a Democratic victory will be unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, potentially leading to a depreciation of the dollar.

In short, every outcome is bad, but some outcomes are bad for stocks.

Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson, in his election preview report, analyzed in detail the potential market impacts of the four main election results for the U.S. president and Congress. These four scenarios are Republican sweep, Democratic sweep, Trump government divided, and Biden government divided.

Specifically,

1. Republican Sweep:

In the scenario of a Republican sweep, Wilson believes the stock market will rebound moderately, yields will rise, and the trade-weighted dollar will appreciate. As the Republican government may extend expiring tax cuts and may further implement corporate tax cuts, bond yields may rise.

1. Democratic Sweep:

Wilson believes that the stock market will moderately decline, the dollar will depreciate moderately, and yields will rise. Expectations of a Democratic government implementing larger fiscal stimulus measures may push up bond yields.

1. Trump Government Divided:

In this scenario, the stock market will moderately decline, yields will slightly rise, and the dollar will have significant upside potential. Strong reactions to potential tariffs along with fiscal tightening may have a negative impact on the stock market and yields.

1. Biden Government Divided:

The stock market will show a flat performance, yields will decrease, and the dollar will weaken. If the reduction in new tariffs is less than expected, this will increase the upside potential for the stock market and may push up yields instead of lowering them