Non-farm payrolls boost rate cut expectations, S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs again, Tesla surged nearly 38% in eight days, NVIDIA cooled down, and US bond yields plummeted

The U.S. non-farm payroll report strengthens the expectation of a rate cut in September. The U.S. non-farm payroll report shows that 206,000 new jobs were added in June, higher than the expected 190,000, but the significant downward revisions in April and May offset the positive impact in June. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to the highest level in two and a half years, while wage growth fell to the lowest level in three years, indicating a cooling labor market in the United States.

Commentators state that to solidify the rate cut expectation for September, another round of data support is needed. More importantly, next week's inflation data and next month's data are crucial. Some analysts point out that recent data have "contradictions." On one hand, the non-farm data boost the expectation of a rate cut in September and drive U.S. stocks higher. However, multiple data showing the same trend raise concerns about signs of a softening U.S. economy.

Investors hold optimistic expectations for the Fed's rate cut prospects. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has increased from 66.5% to 71.1%. The likelihood of the first rate cut in November has also risen, while the probability of a second rate cut in December has increased to 46.5%. Investors are fully expecting the Fed to cut rates twice before the end of the year.

After the non-farm data was released, U.S. stocks and bonds rose, while the U.S. dollar came under pressure. Initially, U.S. bonds fell in the short term due to the better-than-expected increase in June employment numbers, but they sharply rebounded after the market closely examined the "data detail" of a sharp cut of 110,000 jobs in the previous two months, making the yield curve steeper.

In terms of commodities, the strengthening of the U.S. employment report and the expectation of a rate cut have reduced the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold assets. The pressure on the U.S. dollar has supported the rise in precious metal prices, while industrial metals in London have generally risen. International crude oil prices fell across the board, but the larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories indicates an increase in oil demand, leading to oil prices rising for the fourth consecutive week.

Internationally, the UK Labour Party won a landslide victory in the election, paving the way for a rate cut by the Bank of England after the end of the UK general election. Although French polls suggest that the parliamentary outcome may be inconclusive, today's Ipsos poll results show that Le Pen is expected to win 175-205 seats in the French parliamentary elections on Sunday, far below the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds narrowed to 65 basis points.

S&P 500 Index Rises for the Fourth Consecutive Day, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Hit New Highs

On Friday, July 5th, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose throughout the day, closing at historic highs; while the Dow, dominated by blue-chip stocks, experienced short-term declines multiple times, it ended the day higher and closed at a daily high; the Russell small-cap index maintained its downward trend, with the Nasdaq showing the largest increase among major indices, with the Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech stocks, rising by 1%.

At the close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all hit new closing highs, marking the 34th and 23rd times this year for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively, to set new closing highs, with the Dow approaching its historical high set on June 24th: The S&P 500 index closed up 30.17 points, a 0.54% increase, at 5567.19 points, hitting a new closing high for the third consecutive day. The Dow rose 67.87 points, or 0.17%, to 39375.87 points. The Nasdaq gained 164.46 points, or 0.90%, to 18352.76 points, setting a new historical closing high for the fourth consecutive day.

This week, the three major stock indexes all rose. The Nasdaq rose by 3.5%; the S&P 500 rose by nearly 2%, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains in five weeks; the Dow rose by nearly 0.7%. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell by 1%, performing the worst and turning slightly negative for the year, while the S&P large-cap stocks rose by 16.7% and the Nasdaq rose by 22.3% year-to-date.

The Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.02%, setting a new historical closing high for three consecutive days; the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology component stocks, rose by 1.17% to set a new closing high; the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell by 0.49%; the "fear index" VIX rose by 1.71% to 12.47.

The S&P 500 index's 11 sectors saw the telecommunications services sector rise by 2.74%, the consumer discretionary sector rise by 0.85%, the information technology/technology sector rise by 0.49%, the financial sector fall by 0.28%, the industrial sector fall by 0.4%, and the energy sector fall by 1.52%.

This week, the telecommunications sector rose by 3.91%, the technology sector rose by 3.85%, the consumer discretionary sector rose by 3.75%, the consumer goods sector rose by 1.03%, the financial sector rose by 0.93%, the industrial sector fell by 0.56%, the utilities sector rose by 0.56%, the real estate sector fell by 0.23%, the materials sector fell by 0.46%, the healthcare sector fell by 0.96%, and the energy sector fell by 1.27%.

Tech giants such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta all hit historical highs. Tesla rose by 2.09%, marking an eight-day consecutive increase and a 27.12% increase for the week, with a nearly 38% increase over the eight days and approaching a turnaround for the year. Meta, known as the "metaverse company," rose by 5.87% to a new high, with a 7.08% increase for the week. Google Class A shares rose by 2.57%, setting a new historical closing high for two consecutive days and a 4.64% increase for the week, marking five consecutive weeks of gains. Apple rose by 2.16%, setting a new historical closing high for four consecutive days and a 7.46% increase for the week, marking two consecutive weeks of gains. Microsoft rose by 1.47%, also setting new highs for four consecutive days, with Apple closing in on the top spot in market value, and Amazon rose by 1.22%, matching its all-time high Chip stocks fluctuate. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.9% before turning down, eventually edging up, hovering above 5600 points for two weeks at a high level, with a weekly cumulative increase of 3.4%. The industry ETF SOXX closed up 0.2%. NVIDIA plunged in the final trading session, closing down 1.91%, with a market value of $3.1 trillion ranking third in the U.S. stock market. It rose nearly 2% this week after two consecutive weeks of decline; NVIDIA's double long ETF fell by 3.8%.

In addition, Arm Holdings rose by 7.7%, reaching a historical high along with TSMC's 0.8% increase in U.S. stocks. AMD rose by 4.88%, Intel by 2.53%, Qualcomm by 0.95%, KLA by 0.22%, while Broadcom fell by 1.5% and Micron Technology fell by 3.82%.

AI concept stocks show divergent trends. SoundHound.ai rose by 6.62%, Palantir by 5.34%, C3.ai by 4.83%; CrowdStrike rose by 0.65%, approaching historical highs along with Oracle's 0.31% increase; Snowflake rose by 0.11%, while AMD fell by 0.05%, Dell by 2.6%, and BigBear.ai by 3.38%.

On the news front:

NVIDIA: NVIDIA Rarely Downgraded, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded NVIDIA to Neutral, citing concerns about valuation. The analyst believes that unless in a bull market, NVIDIA's upside potential in the future is quite limited. The latest price target for NVIDIA is $135.

Amazon: Victoria Greene, Chief Investment Officer of G Squared Private Wealth, stated that Amazon's diversified business segments and investment projects are expected to help the company reach a market value of $3 trillion: "Not just the retail business, but now there is also Amazon Web Services (AWS), a higher-profit business segment, with profit margins expected to reach 40% in the next five years. Amazon is expected to join the $3 trillion market value club in the next five years."

Chinese concept stocks generally fell. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down by 2.38%, with a weekly cumulative increase of 0.18%. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down by 2.16%, with a weekly cumulative increase of 2.15%, ending a six-week downtrend. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down by 2.02%, falling below 5900 points from a two-week high, with a weekly cumulative increase of 2.83%.

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, new energy vehicle companies experienced significant declines, with ZEEKR falling by 8.74%, Nio by over 5.1%, XPeng by over 4.8%, and Li Auto by 1.25%. NetEase fell by over 4.1%, Alibaba by 1.39%, Baidu by 1.21%, Pinduoduo by 0.84%, JD.com by 0.41%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) by 0.68%, while Sohu rose by approximately 2.4%; In addition, Zhongtong Express fell more than 3.6%, Vipshop fell 3.5%, New Oriental fell more than 3.4%, Gaotu Education fell more than 8.9%, and Kanxun.com fell more than 6.4%.

Among the stocks with significant fluctuations:

The long-established American department store Macy's rose 14% and closed up more than 9%, reaching a new high in a month. Reports indicated that an investor group raised its acquisition offer to about $24.80 per share, higher than the previous $24 per share, with a total amount of about $6.9 billion.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index fell 1.41%. All 24 component stocks suffered losses, with JPMorgan Chase falling 1.87% ranking seventh from the bottom, Goldman Sachs falling 0.68% ranking fourth from the bottom, Citigroup falling 0.67%, Morgan Stanley falling 0.61%, and Wells Fargo falling 0.57% performing the best. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index fell 1.33%.

U.S. gold and silver mining concept stocks all rose. For example, Kinross Gold rose 3.79%, Harmony Gold rose 3.74%, McMoran Copper & Gold rose 1.72%. Pan American Silver rose 2.77%. In addition, the Gold ETF-SPDR closed up 1.35%, and the Silver ETF-iShares rose 2.30%.

All 22 component stocks in the energy sector suffered losses, with Valero Energy leading the decline with a 3.61% drop, and Exxon Mobil falling by about 2.5%.

Most cryptocurrency concept stocks fell, with Stronghold falling 5.5% on Friday, MFH falling more than 5.4%, Marathon Digital falling more than 3.8%, and Canaan Technology ADR falling about 2.3%.

This week, consumer discretionary and technology stocks rose, while energy stocks were sold off.

Retail investors remain enthusiastic about stock clusters. Gaussin Electronics rose 25.59%, BlackBerry rose 0.4%, AMC Theatres rose 0.4%, while Game Station fell 0.78%.

Investors are awaiting the results of the French presidential election. European stocks ended a two-day rally, with most falling on Friday, and mid-cap British stocks rose more than 0.8% after the election results were announced:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.18%, up 1.01% for the week. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell 0.16%, up 1.74% for the week.

Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.14%, up 1.32% for the week; France's CAC 40 index fell 0.26%, up 2.62% for the week; Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.35%, up 2.51% for the week; the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.45%, up 0.49% for the week; Spain's IBEX 35 index fell 0.39%, up 0.73% for the week In the European stock market, "Eleven Warriors," Asmae rose by 0.89%, hitting a historical high approaching the 1000 euro mark, with a weekly increase of about 3%. Novo Nordisk rose by 0.41%. Despite a research report from Harvard University that was unfavorable to its weight-loss drug, the company's stock price continued to rise for the second consecutive day, with a cumulative decline of 3.14% for the week.

Among stocks with significant fluctuations, strong orders and Samsung's performance drove up European chip stocks, with Germany's Aixtron rising by nearly 18%. Danish pharmaceutical company Zealand hit a closing high for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 6.6% for the week and a total increase of over 46% in eleven days.

Cooling labor market lowers U.S. bond yields, short-term yields lead the decline, both falling by about 10 basis points

At the close, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rates, fell by 10.44 basis points to 4.6014%, with a cumulative decline of 15.20 basis points for the week. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell by 8.42 basis points to 4.2745%. When the U.S. non-farm payroll report was released, it rebounded and rose to a daily high of 4.3823%, then instantly fell below 4.28%, showing a volatile downward trend throughout the day, with a cumulative decline of 11.97 basis points for the week.

In addition, the three-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 9.76 basis points, the five-year yield fell by 10.03 basis points, and the seven-year yield fell by 9.42 basis points. The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 6.16 basis points, and the 30-year yield fell by 5.75 basis points.

U.S. bond yields fell significantly this week, with short-term yields leading the decline

The 10-year German bund yield in the eurozone fell by 5.2 basis points at the close, to 2.556%, with a weekly increase of 5.55 basis points. The two-year German bund yield fell by 5.3 basis points to 2.889%, with a weekly increase of 5.6 basis points.

The French 10-year bond yield fell by 6.7 basis points, with a weekly decline of 8.7 basis points; the Italian 10-year bond yield fell by 6.3 basis points, with a weekly decline of 13.7 basis points; the Spanish 10-year bond yield fell by 5.4 basis points, with a weekly decline of 7.8 basis points, and the Greek 10-year bond yield fell by 5.9 basis points The yield on the 10-year UK government bond fell by 7.2 basis points to 4.125% after the results of the UK parliamentary elections were announced and 10 Downing Street changed hands. The yield on the two-year UK bond "gapped down" on the "non-farm day", ultimately falling by 6.3 basis points to 4.128%, with a cumulative decline of 9.3 basis points this week.

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.2%, the yen once approached 162, and cryptocurrencies plummeted

The basket of currencies measured against the six major currencies, the US dollar index DXY, fell by 0.24% to 104.875 points. It briefly dropped to a daily low of 104.825 points when the US non-farm employment report was released, then briefly rebounded. It fell by 0.94% this week and ended a four-week streak of gains.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.18% to 1260.27 points, with a cumulative decline of 0.73% this week.

The US dollar is being sold off

This week, the euro rose by 1.18% against the US dollar, the pound rose by 1.35% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell by 0.34% against the Swiss franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 1.19% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.88% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Canadian dollar.

Offshore renminbi against the US dollar rose by 150 points or 0.2% before the US stock market opened, briefly breaking through 7.28 yuan. During US stock market trading, it mostly erased gains and returned to the 7.29 yuan level, still not far from an eight-month low.

The US dollar fell by 0.33% against the Japanese yen to 160.74, breaking below the 161 level. It dropped to a daily low of 160.35 when the non-farm employment report was released, with a cumulative decline of 0.09% this week, showing an overall trend of rising and falling from highs.

Due to increasing speculation about a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mitsubishi UFJ analysts recommend buying the Australian dollar against the US dollar. They predict that the Australian dollar/New Zealand dollar will further rise above 1.10, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is "expected to stand pat next week and not send a signal closer to a rate hike".

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies are falling. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell by 5.30% to $56,655.00, with a weekly decline of 6.08%. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell by 4.76% to $2,983.00, with a weekly decline of 12.14%.

Cryptocurrencies plummeted this week, with Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin

Oil prices fell by about 1% on Friday, but strong demand prospects led to a four-week continuous rise, with US oil rising by about 2% in a single week

WTI August crude oil futures fell by $0.72, a decrease of nearly 0.86%, to $83.16 per barrel. Brent September crude oil futures fell by $0.89, a decrease of nearly 1.02%, to $86.54 per barrel US stocks hit a daily high in the morning, rising by about $0.64 or 0.76% to $84.52, the highest since April 15. Brent crude, which is more actively traded, rose by $0.52 or 0.59% to $87.95; as the US stock market entered the afternoon session, oil prices plummeted, US stocks hit a daily low in the final trading session, with US oil falling the most by $0.86 or 1% to $83.02, and Brent crude falling the most by $0.94 or 1% to $86.49.

Both oil prices have risen for four consecutive weeks this week. US oil has risen by 2.1%, while Brent crude has slightly increased.

Analysts predict that as summer fuel demand rebounds, oil demand in the third quarter will be tighter, and the latest inventory data released by the US EIA further confirms this forecast.

UBS predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day this year, higher than the long-term growth rate of 1.2 million barrels per day. With the OPEC+ production cut agreement continuing until September, inventories are expected to further decline in the coming weeks, and Brent crude prices may reach $90 per barrel in the third quarter.

In addition, J.P. Morgan also predicts that Brent crude oil prices will reach $90 per barrel in August or September.

Despite two sharp declines near $84 in US oil prices this week, prices ultimately rose this week.

The August contract for US natural gas fell by about 4.09%, closing at $2.319 per million British thermal units. US gasoline futures closed at $2.5591 per gallon.

"Non-farm" data boosts metals, gold rises for two consecutive weeks to the highest level since May, silver rises by over 7.63% this week, copper rises by over 3.59%

COMEX August gold futures rose 1.3% at the end of Friday, reaching above $2400 per ounce, the first time since June 7, with COMEX July silver futures rising by about 2.2% to $31.52 per ounce.

Spot gold rose slightly before the US stock market opened, and after the non-farm data was released, the price of gold continued to rise, with US stocks rising by 1.5% at one point and approaching the $2340 integer mark, hitting a new high since May 22. It rose by 2.87% this week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, the largest weekly gain in nearly 13 weeks.

Spot silver continued to rise after the non-farm data was released, with US stocks rising by 3.6% at one point during the afternoon session, approaching the $31.5 integer mark. It rose by about 7.63% this week, marking the best weekly performance in nearly seven weeks.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that the latest non-farm employment data "retains the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September." The current expectation among derivatives traders is a 75% probability of a rate cut within two months. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said, "Gold has had a fruitful week, with precious metals benefiting from some weak US macro data The spot gold price soared this week, approaching historical highs again.

The weakening of the US dollar led to a collective rise in London industrial base metals on Friday. The economic indicator "Dr. Copper" closed up $62, approaching the $10,000 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 3.59% this week.

In addition, LME aluminum rose $13 to $2536 per ton. LME zinc rose $14 to $3001 per ton, with a weekly increase of over 2.14%. LME lead rose $10 to $2237 per ton. LME nickel rose $124 to $17341 per ton. LME tin rose $716, with an increase of nearly 2.16%, reaching $33874 per ton, and a weekly increase of over 3.46%.

The main driver of the rise in copper prices on Friday was the weaker-than-expected growth in US non-farm payrolls in June, which strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut this year. In addition, some traders took short-covering actions to reduce risk exposure due to copper shipments not arriving in the US as expected, which also boosted copper prices. Dan Smith, research director at Amalgamated Metal Trading, said that stocks that were supposed to be shipped to the US have apparently not arrived yet