"Resisting the decline" of US stocks, Powell and CPI, will the current week be "adding fuel to the fire" or a "wake-up call"?

Even in the face of Nvidia's stock price slump, the volatility in the Bitcoin market, and the political uncertainty triggered by Biden's disastrous debate, the US stock market still "refuses to fall" and continues to rise.

Among them, the performance of technology stocks is particularly outstanding. Last week, the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the Nasdaq 100 Index all hit historic highs. Tech giants such as Apple, Amazon, Google's parent company Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and others saw their stock prices hit 52-week highs, with Tesla skyrocketing by 27.1% in just one week.

However, the surge in market heat has also raised concerns about accumulating risks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that major indices and tech giant stocks have been generally overbought since mid-June.

It is worth noting that year-to-date, the Dow has only risen by 4.5%, while the Russell 2000 Index has a meager increase of only 0.69%, which is almost negligible. This comparison highlights the strong performance of large-cap tech stocks.

Against this backdrop, Powell's speech and US CPI data will be the focus of the market next week.

"Adding Fuel to the Fire" or "A Stern Warning"?

(1) Powell's Congressional Testimony:

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before Congress next Tuesday and Wednesday. Against the backdrop of rising unemployment and slowing economic growth, Powell may face pressure to cut interest rates. However, it is expected that he will emphasize the need to further confirm the trend of slowing inflation, hinting that the Fed is not considering a rate cut for now.

The media predicts that Powell may face sharper questioning from lawmakers about why the Fed is reluctant to lower borrowing costs.

It is worth mentioning that on Tuesday this week, Powell stated that recent data indicates that inflation is returning to a downward trajectory, but he and his colleagues hope to see this trend continue.

(2) CPI Data Release:

The release of June CPI data on Thursday will be another focus of the market's attention. Currently, the market expects core CPI to rise by 0.2% month-on-month; overall CPI to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase may drop to 3.1%, which would be a five-month low. These data will provide important references for Fed policy decisions.

It is worth noting that the monthly non-farm payroll report released on Friday showed that although the unemployment rate remains at a historic low of 4.1%, it is on the rise. The minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting showed that several officials pointed out that further demand slowdown could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate