China's June CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year

On July 10th, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the overall supply in the consumer market was sufficient, with the national CPI seasonally decreasing month-on-month but continuing to rise year-on-year. Influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and insufficient demand in some domestic industrial markets, the national PPI saw a slight decrease month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline continued to narrow.

Specifically: In June, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase compared to the previous month.

In June, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month change from a 0.2% increase to a 0.2% decrease; the industrial producer purchase price index fell by 0.5% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, industrial producer prices fell by 2.1% compared to the same period last year, and industrial producer purchase prices fell by 2.6%.

Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan from the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics provided the following interpretation:

From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI decreased by 0.2%, expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Specifically, food prices, which remained flat last month, decreased by 0.6%, contributing to a 0.11 percentage point decrease in the CPI month-on-month. Looking at the year-on-year change, the CPI increased by 0.2%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month. Food prices fell by 2.1%, with the decrease expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month, leading to a 0.39 percentage point decrease in the CPI year-on-year.

From a month-on-month perspective, the PPI changed from a 0.2% increase last month to a 0.2% decrease. Specifically, the prices of production materials shifted from a 0.4% increase to a 0.2% decrease; the prices of living materials decreased by 0.1%, with the decrease matching that of the previous month. With the arrival of the "peak summer" season, seasonal increases in coal demand led to a 1.1% rise in coal mining and washing prices; cement companies reduced production, coupled with increased cost support after the implementation of new national standards, resulting in a shift from a 0.8% decrease to a 3.3% increase in cement manufacturing prices; tight supply drove a 1.6% increase in prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, with lead smelting, aluminum smelting, and copper smelting prices rising by 4.8%, 2.6%, and 0.8% respectively.

Seasonal Decrease in June CPI, Continued Year-on-Year Increase

In June 2024, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year. In urban areas, prices increased by 0.2%, while in rural areas, prices rose by 0.4%; food prices fell by 2.1%, non-food prices rose by 0.8%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.1%, while service prices increased by 0.7% On average from January to June, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.

In June, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. Specifically, urban areas decreased by 0.2%, rural areas decreased by 0.2%; food prices decreased by 0.6%, non-food prices decreased by 0.2%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, while service prices remained stable.

I. Year-on-Year Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services

In June, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, affecting the CPI by approximately -0.31 percentage points. Within food categories,

Prices of fresh fruits decreased by 8.7%, affecting CPI by approximately -0.19 percentage points; prices of fresh vegetables decreased by 7.3%, affecting CPI by approximately -0.15 percentage points; prices of eggs decreased by 3.9%, affecting CPI by approximately -0.03 percentage points; prices of livestock meat increased by 3.5%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.10 percentage points, with pork prices rising by 18.1%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.21 percentage points; prices of aquatic products increased by 1.2%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.02 percentage points; prices of grains increased by 0.4%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.01 percentage points.

The other seven major categories saw six increases and one decrease. Among them,

Prices of other goods and services, education, culture, and entertainment increased by 4.0% and 1.7% respectively, while clothing and healthcare prices both increased by 1.5%, and prices of daily necessities, housing increased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively; transportation and communication prices decreased by 0.3%.

II. Month-on-Month Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services

In June, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, affecting CPI by approximately -0.10 percentage points. Within food categories,

Prices of fresh vegetables decreased by 7.3%, affecting CPI by approximately -0.15 percentage points; prices of fresh fruits decreased by 3.8%, affecting CPI by approximately -0.08 percentage points; prices of livestock meat increased by 4.5%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.13 percentage points, with pork prices rising by 11.4%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.14 percentage points; prices of eggs increased by 1.5%, affecting CPI by approximately +0.01 percentage points.

The other seven major categories saw two increases and five decreases month-on-month. Among them,

Housing and healthcare prices both increased by 0.1%; transportation and communication, daily necessities, and services prices decreased by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, while clothing, education, culture, entertainment, and other goods and services prices all decreased by 0.2%.

PPI MoM Declines Slightly, YoY Decline Continues to Narrow

I. Changes in Industrial Producer Prices YoY in June

In terms of ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of production materials decreased by 0.8%, leading to a total decrease of approximately 0.57 percentage points in ex-factory prices of industrial producers. Specifically,

Prices in the mining industry rose by 2.7%, prices in the raw materials industry rose by 1.6%, and prices in the processing industry fell by 2.0%. Prices of living materials decreased by 0.8%, resulting in a total decrease of approximately 0.21 percentage points in ex-factory prices of industrial producers. Among them, food prices fell by 0.2%, clothing prices remained stable, prices of general daily necessities fell by 0.1%, and prices of durable consumer goods fell by 2.1%.

II. Changes in Industrial Producer Prices MoM in June

In terms of ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of production materials decreased by 0.2%, leading to a total decrease of approximately 0.13 percentage points in ex-factory prices of industrial producers. Specifically,

Prices in the mining industry rose by 0.3%, prices in the raw materials industry fell by 0.5%, and prices in the processing industry fell by 0.1%. Prices of living materials decreased by 0.1%, resulting in a total decrease of approximately 0.04 percentage points in ex-factory prices of industrial producers. Among them, food prices rose by 0.3%, clothing prices fell by 0.1%, prices of general daily necessities remained stable, and prices of durable consumer goods fell by 0.7%.

In terms of purchase prices of industrial producers, prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires rose by 2.4%, prices of agricultural and sideline products rose by 1.3%, and prices of chemical raw materials rose by 0.2%; prices of construction materials and non-metallic materials remained stable; prices of fuel and power fell by 1.3%, prices of ferrous metal materials fell by 0.5%, and prices of textile raw materials fell by 0.2%