Initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell more than expected, with seasonal factors complicating the interpretation
Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, but the interpretation of the employment market has become complicated due to seasonal factors such as shutdowns and restructurings by automakers. According to data from the US Department of Labor, initial claims for unemployment benefits last week were 222,000, lower than expected. However, due to the Independence Day holiday and the impact of automakers shutting down assembly plants, this data may be influenced by seasonal fluctuations. Despite the slowdown in the labor market, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure. The market believes this may pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 6 was 222,000, lower than the previous value of 238,000 and the market expectation of 236,000; the number of continuing jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 30 was 1.852 million, lower than the previous value of 1.858 million and the market expectation of 1.86 million.
It is reported that this latest initial jobless claims data includes the Independence Day holiday, and this indicator often fluctuates significantly around the Independence Day holiday, as automakers typically begin shutting down assembly plants in the week starting July 4 to retool for new models. However, the timing of assembly plant closures by different automakers may vary, which could render the government's model for removing seasonal fluctuations in the data ineffective.
Nevertheless, there are increasing signs that the U.S. labor market is slowing down as the significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve since 2022 have cooled economic activity. In May, there were 1.22 job openings per job seeker, slightly higher than the 2019 average of 1.19; the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in May to 4.1% in June, the highest level in two and a half years.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated this week that from many indicators, the labor market has significantly cooled, and the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure now. Financial markets believe that this, along with the easing of inflationary pressure, has opened the door for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September