What will Trump and Vance's economic agenda look like?

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the economic agenda of Donald Trump and his deputy J.D. Vance has attracted widespread attention. If Trump wins the election, this agenda may have a huge impact on global trade, corporate taxes, and other aspects.

On Tuesday, Trump chose Vance as his running mate, with some media describing it as consolidating the Republican Party's shift from Reagan and Bush era free-market conservatism to economic populism.

Nick Iacovella of the American Prosperity Alliance commented:

"People like J.D. Vance... just take a realistic view of the global economy in the 21st century - the challenges it faces are different from those of the Ronald Reagan era."

Trade Policy: Escalating Protectionism

Trump's disdain for global commerce aligns with Vance's views. He proposed a 10% comprehensive tariff on all imported goods. Analysts believe that this move could lead to renewed trade tensions between the United States and its European and Asian allies, and even possibly Canada.

Furthermore, Trump also hopes to devalue the US dollar to promote exports, which could lead to friction with trading partners on currency policy.

During Trump's first term, he oscillated between implementing threats and punitive measures and negotiating bilateral agreements, and responded to domestic impacts by subsidizing some victims of retaliatory tariffs. Even within Trump's administration, there were disagreements on tariff issues.

However, now the Republican Party and Trump are more aligned on anti-globalization views on trade issues, and have accepted his immigration crackdown plan. American businesses, on the other hand, are cautious about these two stances, fearing the loss of foreign markets and immigrant workers.

Earlier this year, Vance stated in a media interview:

"The post-war American global order is increasingly reliant on cheap labor. Trade issues and immigration issues are two sides of the same coin."

Tax Policy: Tax Cuts or Tax Increases?

For decades, reducing taxes has been a cornerstone of Republican economic policy. In 2017, a $1.7 trillion corporate and individual income tax cut plan enacted by Trump and the Republican Congress is set to expire next year. Trump has expressed his desire to further reduce the corporate tax rate from the current 21%.

However, Democrats view this plan as another significant concession to the wealthy, so Republicans hope to design the tax cut plan less obviously in favor of the wealthiest families and businesses. Vance, however, has expressed doubts about some tax cut policies.

Doug Holtz-Eakin, the current head of the right-leaning think tank American Action Forum, said, "People have openly talked about potentially raising corporate rates, because we don't care about big companies, and we will use that money to pursue other goals."

In addition, Biden's billions of dollars in tax breaks, especially those targeting clean energy, have also been criticized by Republicans. However, many regions benefit from new job opportunities, and the Republican Party is increasingly inclined to accept American industrial policies that were once considered taboo within the party

Attitudes towards Big Corporations: From Support to Criticism

This week, the Republican National Convention unexpectedly placed Sean O’Brien, the president of the truck drivers' union, in a prominent position. Just a few steps away from where Trump and Pence stood, he fiercely criticized big corporations:

"Remember, the elites have no party, no country. Their loyalty to the balance sheet and stock price comes at the expense of American workers."

Analysts believe that Trump is unlikely to suddenly support unionization or labor rights, but O’Brien's presence indicates that the Republican Party's support for large corporations and multinational companies as job creators is no longer taken for granted.

In recent years, anger towards corporations in America has mainly focused on their promotion of progressive social goals. However, a recent opinion poll shows that Americans believe that corporations should be more responsible for their economic plight than even politicians – providing more ammunition for populist leaders. While Trump's allies and major donors from the business world may escape public scrutiny, the party's willingness to directly attack CEOs is growing rapidly.

Last month, Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri expressed agreement with O’Brien's views on big corporations and criticized Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun for safety lapses in the aviation group and his compensation.

Relaxing Regulations in Energy and Climate Sectors

Easing regulations has always been a slogan of the Republican Party. In certain areas such as energy and climate, the new Trump administration will swiftly attempt to roll back anti-pollution and emission control measures while promoting fossil fuel production, but the answers are not clear in other areas.

By supporting the strict anti-monopoly policies of Lina Khan, the chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) appointed by Biden, WanS has formed an unusual alliance with some left-wing individuals. He has stated, "Khan is one of the few people in the Biden administration that I think is doing quite well."

However, his stance may make tech companies a focal point of regulation in Trump's second term, as tech companies have been under scrutiny by competition regulators, and other industries may face a stricter regulatory environment than before. For example, WanS has joined the ranks of some Democrats including Elizabeth Warren, calling for regulators to claw back compensation in the event of bank failures; and together with Democratic Senator from Ohio, he has called for better railroad safety protocols