Hong Kong Stock Market Review: Maintaining the overall market

Biden's withdrawal, Trump's trading may pause for a while, and the Hong Kong stock market has also seen a rebound.

Hong Kong high dividend stocks are stable, mainly due to CNOOC coming out for repurchase again after two years, with a high probability of continuing repurchase today. Looking at CNOOC in 2022, there are two factors to consider: one is the expectation of high dividends brought by high oil prices, and the other factor is the first repurchase since 2011, but it did not last for even two months, which is somewhat disappointing.

It is obvious that the repurchase came after the stock price more than doubled, clearly to support the overall market. Although the cost-effectiveness is not as good as before, it is still a good thing for shareholders, especially considering that dividends for Hong Kong Stock Connect shareholders are subject to taxation. However, currently, major state-owned high dividend stocks have not conducted repurchases. For example, China Mobile only repurchased for a few days in January this year. If they all follow CNOOC, it is intriguing to see how the price difference between A shares and H shares will evolve.

In addition, the mid-year reports of consumer stocks continue to dampen sentiment. Among them, JIUMAOJIU issued a profit warning, with a net profit in the first half of the year decreasing by less than 70% year-on-year.

This was somewhat expected. Two years ago, Haidilao made a big comeback, but the company remains cautious in opening new stores, which the market perceives as lacking ambition. However, seeking stability in uncertainty is the correct performance, especially since key management has also shifted to Special Hai International for overseas development.

In comparison, the number of JIUMAOJIU restaurants has increased from 556 in 2022 to 726 in 2023. The company's recent growth mainly relies on Tai'er and Sōng Hotpot, but in the face of fierce competition, the Tai'er brand has begun to age, with table turnover and per capita spending declining, and the decline in Sōng Hotpot is even greater. In Q2, same-store sales for Tai'er/Sōng Hotpot/JIUMAOJIU fell by 18%/37%/13% respectively.

Therefore, it is not surprising to see crazy expansion of stores under brand aging, following in the footsteps of Haidilao.

Nevertheless, JIUMAOJIU continues its expansion plan for Tai'er, maintaining the opening of 80-100 domestic/15-20 overseas stores throughout the year, only reducing Sōng Hotpot from 35-40 stores to 25. With this expansion, it may eventually turn into a company like Xiabu Xiabu, with a market value of only 1.4 billion, which had nearly 1,100 restaurants in 23 years, generating 5.9 billion in revenue, similar to JIUMAOJIU, but with a 200 million loss