Economic "semi-annual reports" from 28 provinces released, with over half outperforming the national growth rate

With the release of the "semi-annual report" on the economy by the National Bureau of Statistics for 2024, various provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) have successively announced their "report cards" for the first half of the year.

According to statistics from reporters of the Securities Daily, as of July 26th, 28 provinces in the country have announced their economic data for the first half of the year. Among them, 16 provinces have outperformed the "national line" (5.0%) in terms of year-on-year GDP growth rate, accounting for more than half. Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and Tibet ranked top 3 with growth rates of 6.2%, 6.1%, and 6.1% respectively.

"With the macro policies implemented effectively this year, local economies have continued to recover and improve." Liu Xiangdong, Deputy Director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told reporters of the Securities Daily that it is expected that in the second half of the year, various regions will seize the opportunities of policies such as "two major" (issuing ultra-long-term special national bonds to support major strategic implementation and building security capabilities in key areas) and "two new" (promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement) to stimulate consumption with potential and expand beneficial investments, while consolidating the foundation of foreign trade and foreign investment, actively and steadily promoting the economy towards high-quality development.

Many Highlights in the "Report Card"

Specifically, from the perspective of economic aggregate, the GDP of Guangdong and Jiangsu both exceeded 6 trillion yuan, ranking the top two. Shandong and Zhejiang exceeded 4 trillion yuan, closely following. In general, there are 13 provinces with GDP exceeding 2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year.

"In terms of total amount, the effect of the economic powerhouses in leading economic development is obvious." Liu Xiangdong, Chief Analyst of Dongyuan Investment, told reporters of the Securities Daily.

In terms of GDP growth rate, 16 provinces including Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, Tibet, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu achieved GDP growth rates exceeding 5.0%. Hebei and Liaoning had a growth rate of 5.0%, the same as the national average.

In addition to total amount and growth rate, each region has also played out different advantages based on its own characteristics.

In terms of foreign trade, Jiangsu Province's import and export of goods in the first half of the year increased by 8.5% year-on-year, accounting for 12.7% of the national total. The import and export with countries participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative increased by 13.6% year-on-year; exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.8% year-on-year, with integrated circuits, mobile phones, and ship exports growing by 38.5%, 42.7%, and 72.1% respectively.

The positive trend of Guangdong's foreign trade recovery has also been continuously consolidated, with imports and exports reaching 4.37 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, setting a new historical high for the same period, an increase of 13.8% compared to the same period last year, exceeding the national average by 7.7 percentage points, accounting for 20.6% of the national total.

"Looking at the 'report cards' of the first half of the year announced by various regions, Guangdong and Jiangsu, as economic powerhouses, still stand out." Zhu Keli, Executive Director of the China Information Association and Founding Director of the New Economy Research Institute of the National Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters of the Securities Daily that Guangdong's total import and export volume has grown significantly year-on-year, far exceeding the national average, thanks to its strong manufacturing base and deep roots in foreign trade. Jiangsu's foreign trade growth has also remained robust, demonstrating the vitality and resilience of its open economy From the perspective of consumption, Hunan's consumption maintained stable growth in the first half of the year, with the introduction of implementation plans for replacing old cars, home appliances, and home improvement to stimulate consumption, and the continuous launch of a series of consumer promotion activities, fully unleashing the vitality of the consumption market. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Hunan province increased by 5.7% year-on-year.

"Hunan's consumption market is vibrant." Zhu Keli said that the implementation plans introduced in Hunan not only promote consumption but also help product upgrades and optimize industrial structure.

From the perspective of investment, Beijing's fixed asset investment is showing good momentum, with effective investment continuously expanding. In the first half of the year, the total fixed asset investment in Beijing (excluding rural households) increased by 9.6% year-on-year. Effective investment continued to expand, reflecting a 32.9% growth in equipment purchase investment for expanding production capacity by enterprises, with the electronics manufacturing and information service industries playing a significant role, and a 4.0% growth in construction and installation engineering investment reflecting physical work volume. Investment in high-tech industries remained active, with investments in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services growing by 53.5% and 13.6% respectively.

Continued Manifestation of Policy Effects

Reporters have noticed that many regions have mentioned the effects of the "two new" policies in their economic "semi-annual reports".

For example, in Jiangsu, the "two new" policies have unleashed demand potential. From the perspective of the consumption market, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Jiangsu province increased by 4.9% year-on-year. The continued effect of the policy of replacing old products with new ones has driven a 11.0% year-on-year growth in the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment above the quota, accelerating by 4.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter; the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35.5%.

In the investment field, in the first half of the year, fixed asset investment in Jiangsu province increased by 3.7%. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, the investment in equipment and tools increased by 6.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter; industrial technological renovation investment increased by 8.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter.

For example, since the beginning of this year, Shandong province has been solidly promoting policies such as replacing old consumer goods to boost domestic demand and stimulate consumption, leading to continuous optimization and upgrading of consumption structure, improvement in consumption expectations, and steady release of consumption demand. In the first half of the year, Shandong province achieved a total retail sales of consumer goods of 1.7963 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, maintaining a steady and positive development trend overall.

"Under the influence of the 'two new' policies, consumer demand in various regions is picking up." Liu Xiangdong stated that the effects of the policy of replacing old products with new ones are evident, leading to a rebound in sales of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, and a continuous increase in demand for upgraded goods. At the same time, under the influence of equipment renewal policies, enterprise investment in equipment renewal has increased, manifested in increased investment in technological transformation, manufacturing, and high-tech sectors.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, how should various regions continue to promote economic growth? Experts interviewed generally believe that seizing opportunities from policies such as the "two new" policies is a major focus.

Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, believes that further enhancing support for large-scale equipment renewal and the policy of replacing old consumer goods will benefit both residents and enterprises from national policies. At the same time, regions should accelerate the cultivation of new quality productivity according to their own endowments and advantages to promote high-quality economic development Zhu Keliji also stated that each region should develop new productive forces according to local conditions. Specifically, efforts should be made to increase support for technological innovation, encourage enterprises to increase research and development investment and innovation, as well as strengthen talent training and recruitment to provide a continuous talent guarantee for economic development.

Liu Xiangdong suggested that regions should sustainably promote consumption upgrades by encouraging consumption through methods such as issuing consumption vouchers, especially in industries such as automobiles, household appliances, and tourism, to further drive sustained economic recovery and improvement