Wall Street Judgment: Trump "bearish" on oil prices

Recently, major Wall Street banks have indicated that if former President Trump wins in the U.S. presidential election, it could lead to a drop in oil prices.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both pointed out in their reports that Trump's trade tariffs could have a negative impact on oil prices.

An analyst at Goldman Sachs stated:

If tariffs significantly affect the global economy, oil prices could fall by $11 to $19 per barrel next year.

Goldman Sachs economists analyzed a scenario where Trump imposes a uniform 10% tariff on all imported goods, and other countries retaliate with equivalent tariffs.

An analyst at Citigroup Group pointed out:

The Trump administration will continue to bring negative risks, mainly related to trade, oil and gas policies, and his impact on the OPEC+ oil-producing country alliance.

Both reports mentioned that if Trump reinstates his previous policy of pressuring Iran's exports when he was in office, it could also push up oil prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that during Trump's second term, Iran's production could decrease by around 1 million barrels per day, approximately one-third of its total production. However, other OPEC+ exporting countries may try to fill this gap, limiting the increase in oil prices to around $9 per barrel.

Furthermore, despite Trump's pledge to increase U.S. oil production, analysts expect it will not have a substantial impact on production as U.S. oil production is already at record levels. Citigroup believes that the most likely measures to be taken include increasing leasing and land auctions, as well as lifting the leasing ban on the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve.

Citigroup stated:

Even though Trump appears more inclined to support the oil and gas industry than the Democratic candidate, his direct impact on the actual oil market may be limited.

Earlier this year, Citigroup predicted that if Trump wins, it would strengthen the bank's expectation for oil prices to fall to $60 per barrel by 2025.