Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Economists expect the Federal Reserve to signal a rate cut in September, resource stocks sector expected to stabilize (with concept stocks)
The Federal Reserve may signal a rate cut in September this week, with the resources sector expected to stabilize. According to media surveys, the Federal Reserve is likely to lay the groundwork for a 25 basis point rate cut at the July 30-31 meeting for the next meeting in September. Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will signal an imminent rate cut in its policy statement and press conference. Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the global risk assets have fallen, further strengthening concerns about physical demand. The previous significant adjustment in the resources sector increases the probability of stabilization in the future. Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, changes in the U.S. election situation, and opportunities for a counterattack brought by the political meeting
According to a survey of economists by the media, the Federal Reserve may signal a rate cut in September this week, and it is believed that this will kick off a quarterly rate cut cycle that will continue until 2025.
Nearly three-quarters of respondents believe that the Fed will lay the groundwork for a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting in September, following the July 30-31 meeting.
However, there is disagreement among them on how policymakers will achieve this goal.
Half of the respondents believe that the Fed will signal an impending rate cut in both the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference 30 minutes later, but other respondents expect the Fed to choose only one of the two.
All respondents expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at a more than two-decade high at next week's meeting.
Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that global risk assets collectively fell last week, driven by a liquidity shock brought about by the reversal of carry trades, further reinforcing market concerns about assets related to physical demand.
Looking ahead, the marginal improvement in domestic weak reality and overseas "weak expectations" is noteworthy, and the linkage of equipment investment between China and the United States deserves attention, as the resilience of physical demand will be re-recognized.
Resource sectors include non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), shipping (oil shipping, shipbuilding, dry bulk), energy (oil, coal), etc.:
Copper: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), etc.
Aluminum: Aluminum Corporation of China (02600), China Hongqiao (01378), etc.;
Gold: Shandong Gold Mining (01787), Zijin Mining (02899), Zhaojin Mining (01818), China Gold International (02099), Lingbao Gold (03330), etc.;
Shipping: Orient Overseas International (00316), Pacific Basin Shipping (02343), COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), COSCO Shipping Energy (01138), China Merchants Group (02039), etc.;
Energy: CNOOC (00883) and other three major oil companies; China Shenhua Energy (01088), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yancoal Australia (03668), China Coal Energy (01898), etc