Overnight US Stocks | Three major indices lose upward momentum, Nasdaq falls more than 1%, Super Micro Computer drops more than 20%

According to the Wise Finance APP, on Wednesday, the three major indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 index rising by about 1.7% at the opening, and the Nasdaq rising by about 2%. The former head of the Federal Reserve mentioned the need for a timely rate cut, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting.

[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones fell by 234.15 points, or 0.60%, to 38763.51 points; the Nasdaq fell by 171.05 points, or 1.05%, to 16195.81 points; the S&P 500 index fell by 40.52 points, or 0.77%, to 5199.51 points. Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) fell by over 20%, Broadcom (AVGO.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US) fell by over 5%, Tesla (TSLA.US) fell by over 4%, Intel (INTC.US) fell by 3.6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed down by 1.45%, while XPeng (XPEV.US) fell by over 5%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index closed up by 286.47 points, or 1.65%, at 17607.75 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 141.01 points, or 1.76%, to 8167.70 points; the French CAC40 index rose by 135.97 points, or 1.91%, to 7266.01 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 91.58 points, or 2.00%, to 4666.80 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose by 209.60 points, or 2.02%, to 10600.10 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 702.87 points, or 2.26%, to 31810.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index rose by over 1%, the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia rose by 0.91%, and the VN30 index in Vietnam rose by 0.06%.

[Gold] COMEX December gold futures closed slightly down by 0.07% at $2429.8 per ounce; COMEX September silver futures closed down by 1.27% at $26.870 per ounce.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by over 1% to $55396.7 per coin; Ethereum fell by over 4% to $2357.66 per coin.

[Crude Oil] The price of WTI crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.03, up by over 2.77%, to close at $75.23 per barrel.

[Metals] London metals saw mixed movements, with LME copper falling by 1.78%, LME aluminum falling by $8, LME zinc falling by $20, LME nickel falling by $89, LME tin rising by over 1.14%, and LME lead rising by $14.

[Macro News]

US Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.55%, Marking the Largest Decline in Two Years. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US saw the largest decline in two years last week, hitting the lowest level since May 2023 and leading to a surge in refinancing applications. According to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday, for the week ending August 2, the contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by 27 basis points to 6.55%. The rate for adjustable-rate mortgages with a fixed rate for the first 5 years fell by 31 basis points to 5.91%, the lowest level this year The refinancing index surged nearly 16% last week to a two-year high of 661.4. Mortgage applications for home purchases increased by 0.8%, marking the first rise in a month. The overall index for mortgage applications, including refinancing and home purchases, grew by 6.9% last week, reaching the highest level so far this year. The average 30-year mortgage rate has decreased by 0.74 percentage points from the peak of 7.29% reached in April.

Top three officials at the Federal Reserve: The Fed needs to cut interest rates in a timely manner, and a 50 basis point cut may occur at the September meeting. Former New York Fed Chairman Dudley stated two weeks ago that he had shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance, abandoning support for further Fed rate hikes and advocating for an immediate rate cut to avoid an economic recession. Over the past two weeks, more evidence has shown that the U.S. labor market is weakening, while inflation is further slowing down. The longer the Fed waits, the greater the potential damage. Fed members estimate the neutral interest rate to be between 2.4% and 3.8%, indicating that the current effective federal funds rate of 5.3% is far from the neutral level. Once an economic recession becomes a reality, the Fed may need to cut rates to 3% or lower. It is expected that at the September meeting, the Fed may cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

EIA data shows U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen for six consecutive weeks, analysts believe oil prices may continue to rise. Financial website Zerohedge reported that contrary to the API report of inventory increase, EIA data shows that crude oil inventories have fallen for the sixth consecutive week, marking the longest continuous decline since January 2022, with total inventories dropping to the lowest level since February. Strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 736,000 barrels, the largest weekly increase since June. U.S. crude oil production has reached a historical high. Oil still faces headwinds from weak demand and the possibility of OPEC+ increasing supply starting from the next quarter. PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said, "Those who believe an economic recession is inevitable will be happy to abandon stocks and commodities in the foreseeable future. But the rest (who may be the majority) will be reluctant to do so unless there are clear signs of a recession." Escalation in the Middle East could further drive up oil prices, but interruptions in crude oil production in the region are necessary for sustained price increases.

"Dr. Doom" Roubini: No signs of a hard landing or significant rate cuts in the U.S. economy. Economist Nouriel Roubini believes that the market's pricing of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and significant rate cuts by the Fed is overly pessimistic. He stated, "There is some important evidence of a slowdown, but I don't think the data suggests a hard landing is imminent. In fact, there are some strong factors in the economy." At the time of Roubini's remarks, the market expected the Fed to cut rates by about 100 basis points before the end of the year. While the market is nervous about an economic recession, he pointed out that similar judgments in the past have been wrong. "I think in the last three economic recessions, the stock market predicted ten of them. The market often misjudges the economic situation and the Fed's actions." Goldman Sachs: The center of US bond yields is likely to be higher. Goldman Sachs interest rate strategists stated in a report that with a lack of "widespread evidence of labor market or market dysfunction deteriorating rapidly," US bond yields may be too low. "The case for a significant rise in US bond yields from here is that one (or both) of the above risks becomes a reality," wrote US rate strategy directors William Marshall and Bill Zu, "Under a more favorable outcome, we believe the center of the yield curve may be higher than current levels." Despite the bank's economists revising Fed forecasts and the likelihood of an economic recession, the strategists' baseline outlook still aligns with a central scenario of the 10-year US bond yield concentrating above 4%. Starting rate cuts may not necessarily prompt funds to cash in on the short end and exert significant downward pressure on long-term yields. They believe that given the relatively weak data and the Fed's potential quick support for the economy when necessary, it is reasonable to digest some downside asymmetry at present. However, the degree of pressure on the front end is also limited without genuine concerns about the economy or market problems.

S&P Global: The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September. S&P Global expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, initiating a new round of easing. There will be a cumulative 50 basis points cut this year, followed by another 100 basis points next year, with the bias for rate cuts leaning towards earlier rather than later. S&P's fundamental view is that the Fed will steadily and gradually implement a series of rate cuts, which will help the Fed achieve a soft landing. S&P believes that a cooling job market coupled with progress in inflation is sufficient for the Fed to start easing its restrictive monetary policy. At the same time, S&P attributes the slowdown in the labor market to normalization rather than an imminent economic recession.

[Stock News]

Airbnb (ABNB.US) stock plunges, CEO says "Now is a good time to buy." Airbnb's stock price plummeted by 15% in the New York market on Wednesday, marking the largest intraday drop since the company went public in 2020, after the company showed signs of slowing demand from American renters. Airbnb's third-quarter performance outlook was far below Wall Street expectations. Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky responded to his company's disappointing performance outlook and the subsequent stock price plunge by saying, "I believe now is a good time to buy."

NAAS.US partners with FAW-Volkswagen to achieve interconnected charging network. NAAS.US recently announced a deep cooperation in the charging service field with FAW-Volkswagen, joining hands with its strategic partner Fast Charging to share high-quality public charging piles and charging service networks nationwide, providing FAW-Volkswagen new energy vehicle owners with a smart, efficient, and convenient charging service experience. According to the cooperation agreement, both parties will promote the interconnection of charging piles, integration of activities and prices, parking fee reductions, payment settlement, and other comprehensive cooperation