Breakfast ｜

On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market opened high and then fell, experiencing a roller-coaster ride with a short-lived rebound.

Overnight, the S&P 500 index rose by about 1.7% at one point, and the Nasdaq rose by about 2%, but by the close, the Nasdaq fell by over 1% and the S&P 500 index fell by 0.77%. The "fear index" VIX fell nearly 21% before turning higher.

Amid escalating risk aversion due to the Middle East conflict and poor demand for the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction, chip stocks fell by over 3%. NVIDIA initially rose by 4.4% but then fell by over 5%, closing below the psychological $100 level for the first time in nearly three months. Tesla rose by 1.45% before falling by 4.4%, while Apple rose by 1.3%, halting a two-day decline. AMD, with disappointing financial results, fell by over 20% to a six-month low, and Novo Nordisk plummeted by over 8%.

Bleak 10-Year U.S. Treasury Auction Results Lead to Low Yields and a Market-wide Decline in U.S. Bonds and Stocks

The winning yield for this 10-year U.S. Treasury auction was 3.960%, lower than July's 4.276%, but with a significant tail spread. As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed the levels before last Friday's non-farm payroll data release, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks, erasing all gains from the dovish Bank of Japan overnight. Analysts point out that a yield below 4% is not necessarily positive, and the market is now focusing on the $25 billion 30-year U.S. Treasury auction on Thursday.

How Much Longer Until the Closure of the "Yen Carry Trade"? Investment Banks Differ in Opinion

Goldman Sachs and Natixis believe that the closure of the yen carry trade is nearing its "endgame," with most yen short positions already closed. However, J.P. Morgan, UBS, and Societe Generale point out that the current progress of unwinding the yen carry trade is only about 50% complete, with the yen still being one of the most severely undervalued currencies.

J.P. Morgan: What Signals Indicate the Bottom of the U.S. Stock Market Correction?

J.P. Morgan analyst Thomas Salopek released a research report reviewing historical market bottoms, stating that the market currently does not exhibit a complete set of "bottom signals," and the depth of the next pullback may deepen further.

Salopek believes that the current market has not yet shown complete bottoming characteristics. For example, the S&P 500 index has not fallen below the 20-day moving average, the market is not at an extreme low point, and the put/call ratio has not risen to an absolute high.

Novo Nordisk Plunges by 8.3% Due to Disappointing Financial Results

Q2 revenue and net profit both fell short of expectations, but the full-year sales guidance was raised.

Due to strong demand for weight-loss drugs, Novo Nordisk raised its full-year sales guidance. However, as the company expands its capacity, it simultaneously lowered its profit guidance, expecting a year-on-year operating profit growth of 20%-28%, compared to the previous forecast of 22%-30%.

Fiber Optic Company Lumen Emerges as a New Favorite in AI, Soared by 93% on Monday and Another 30% on Tuesday

Fiber optic company Lumen recently revealed that fiber optic networks are becoming increasingly important and scarce in the context of AI. The company has secured a $5 billion deal. Unlike traditional fiber optics that use glass as the core for light transmission, hollow-core fiber optics have a hollow interior, with a structure that is relatively unique compared to traditional fiber optics. The speed of light in hollow-core fiber optics is approximately 1.5 times that of solid-core single-mode fiber optics, approaching the speed of light in a vacuum, reducing communication latency by one-thirdThe nonlinear coefficient of hollow core optical fiber can be reduced by 3-4 orders of magnitude compared to solid core ordinary single-mode optical fiber.

Why "halve" Apple? Bernstein points out Buffett's rule for buying tech stocks: sell if it exceeds 30 times!

For Apple, Buffett has shown a clear sensitivity to valuation, building most of his position when the P/E ratio is below 15 times, selectively increasing it at 20 times P/E ratio or below, and reducing it at 30 times or above. In the last quarter, Apple's average P/E ratio was 30 times.

Fed's top three officials turn dovish again: September meeting may cut rates by 50 basis points

Dudley stated that in the past two weeks, there is more evidence showing that the U.S. labor market is weakening, while inflation is further slowing down. He once again mentioned the warning signal of the unemployment level, stating that the three-month average unemployment rate has reached 4.13%, which is 0.53 percentage points higher than the lowest level in the previous 12 months. This exceeds the threshold of 0.5% set by the Sam rule, indicating an economic recession in the U.S., with future unemployment rates expected to rise significantly. At the same time, he mentioned that the Fed's most favored inflation indicator - the core PCE price index - increased by 0.2% month-on-month in June, marking three consecutive months of moderate growth.

S&P Global: Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September

S&P Global expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, initiating a new round of easing. The Fed is expected to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, and another 100 basis points next year, with a tendency to cut rates earlier rather than later. S&P's basic view is that the Fed will steadily and gradually implement a series of rate cuts, which will help the Fed achieve a soft landing. S&P believes that the cooling of the labor market combined with progress in inflation is enough to prompt the Fed to start easing its restrictive monetary policy. Meanwhile, S&P attributes the slowdown in the labor market to normalization rather than an impending economic recession.

U.S. mortgage rates fall to 6.55%, the largest drop in two years

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates saw the largest drop in two years last week, hitting the lowest level since May 2023, and triggering a surge in refinancing applications. According to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday, as of the week ending August 2, the contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 27 basis points to 6.55%. The rate for adjustable-rate mortgages with a fixed rate for the first 5 years dropped by 31 basis points to 5.91%, the lowest level this year. The refinancing index surged nearly 16% last week to a two-year high of 661.4. Purchase mortgage applications rose by 0.8%, the first increase in a month. The overall index of mortgage applications, including refinancing and purchase, increased by 6.9% last week, reaching the highest level this year. The average rate for 30-year mortgages has dropped by 0.74 percentage points from the peak of 7.29% reached in April to the current level