Breakfast｜The Nasdaq surged nearly 2.9%, and Bitcoin rose 8%, surpassing $59,000

Good morning! A wonderful day starts with breakfast.

S&P 500 Index up over 2%, Chip Stocks Index up about 7%

The latest US employment data eased concerns about economic recession, while the continuous decline of the Japanese yen also suppressed the volatility brought by arbitrage trading closures. US stocks opened higher and closed collectively near the daily high, with the S&P 500 Index up over 2%, marking the largest increase since November 2022. The Nasdaq rose nearly 2.9%, the Dow gained over 680 points, small-cap stocks rose 2.4%, Chinese concept stocks rose 2.8%, and the Chip Stocks Index rose about 7%.

NVIDIA surged over 6%, breaking away from a two-and-a-half-month low. Apple rose for two consecutive days, Tesla rose by 3.7%, Meta surged over 4%, Nio rose about 4%, while Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Tencent ADRs rose over 3%.

Positive news on weight-loss drugs boosted pharmaceutical stocks, with Eli Lilly surging over 9% and Novo Nordisk rising 7.5%.

US stocks weathered poor demand at the 30-year Treasury bond auction, but intensified selling of US bonds led to the 10-year Treasury yield rising back above 4%, with short-term yields rising by 10 basis points at one point.

The US dollar recovered from last Friday's decline, while the Japanese yen fell for three consecutive days. Bitcoin rose by 8%, breaking through $59,000, and Ethereum rose by 10%.

Despite another poor 30-year Treasury bond auction, US stocks held firm

Analysts noted that the dismal 10-year Treasury bond auction on Wednesday led to a surge in bond yields and a sharp drop in US stocks. The last thing the market wanted to see was another disastrous 30-year Treasury bond auction, but that's exactly what happened. Despite the expected decline in US bonds, unlike yesterday, US stocks maintained their gains after the poor 30-year Treasury bond auction and further expanded their gains.

In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims last week was 233,000, lower than expected and the previous reading, marking the largest drop in a year!

Goldman Sachs: Given the current market volatility, the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, no need for emergency rate cuts

Extreme heatwaves are sweeping the globe, with July breaking temperature records for two consecutive days, making 2024 potentially the hottest year on record. July just passed was the second hottest month globally on record, with Japan experiencing its highest average temperature in history, and countries like Greece and Hungary experiencing their hottest July on record.

Is US consumption weakening?

Disney, Airbnb, Hilton, and energy drink giant Monster issued warnings in their financial reports, indicating that US consumption is "definitely weakening"; weak consumption is impacting US credit; US "reindustrialization" is weak, with both Rockwell and Emerson lowering their guidance.

• Disney, Airbnb, Hilton, and energy drink giant Monster issued warnings in their financial reports, indicating that US consumption is "definitely weakening." Due to rising prices, reduced savings among residents, Americans have cut back on consumption in areas such as dining and travel, becoming more cautiousAmerican consumer and hotel giants are all saying that tough times are ahead.
• Weak consumption is impacting US credit, with interest rates hitting record highs and credit card debt seeing a "rare decline". US credit card debt unexpectedly dropped by $1.7 billion in June, marking the largest decline since the pandemic. Historically, whenever such a significant drop occurs, some form of economic disaster either follows closely or has already begun.
• The softening of US "reindustrialization" is evident as both Rockwell and Emerson have lowered their guidance. This is another sign of a slowdown in the manufacturing economy and corporate expenditure reduction. The CEO of Rockwell stated that soft consumer demand, high interest rates, tax, tariffs, and uncertainty in stimulus policies are the main reasons delaying investment plans.

Has the Bank of Japan "surrendered", allowing the market to breathe a sigh of relief?

• The summary of the Bank of Japan's meeting on July 31st showed that officials expect monetary policy to remain accommodative, and even stated that even if they raise interest rates, they do not believe that this move would be enough to disrupt global markets. However, the decision to raise interest rates at this meeting subsequently triggered a global market crash.
• Analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates again, yen carry trades will resurface, inflation issues may worsen, and the focus will shift to whether other major economies like the US are heading towards a recession.
• JP Morgan warned that there may still be "black swans" in the market that are unknown, otherwise the massive sell-off in Japanese stocks cannot be explained. Analysis suggests that there are factors in Japan that are more concerning than economic recession, with consumption and investment likely to be restrained, and policy mistakes could also jeopardize the relationship between the Japanese government and the central bank.
• After the sharp drop in Japanese stocks, is it a good opportunity to "buy the dip", will Buffett increase his holdings? Various signs convey a "buy the dip" signal: the stock prices of the five major trading companies have plummeted, with a market capitalization loss of nearly $7 billion; the expected P/E ratios of two companies have fallen to the levels when Buffett increased his holdings last year; after a significant reduction in Apple holdings in the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway has a record cash reserve.

Guizhou Maotai's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year was 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%

Maotai's revenue in the first half of the year increased by 17.76% year-on-year to 81.931 billion yuan. The company stated that for the years 2024-2026, the total cash dividend distributed annually will not be less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for that year.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a net profit of $164.6 million in the second quarter, significantly exceeding expectations, with a nearly 60% year-on-year decline

SMIC's Q2 revenue increased by 22% year-on-year to $1.9 billion, with a gross margin decline of 6.4 percentage points to 13.9% year-on-year, and a 50% increase in monthly wafer capacity.

Eli Lilly's second-quarter revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, raising full-year performance guidance, with the stock price surging by 13% at one point

Eli Lilly's second-quarter revenue grew by 36%, with a 68% surge in net profit, both exceeding market expectations. The company predicts that the demand for weight loss drugs will continue to rise throughout the year, and has raised its full-year revenue outlook by $3 billionTrump: My intuition is stronger than Powell's, the president should have some say in Fed policy

Trump criticized Powell on Thursday, saying that adjusting interest rates was "either a little too early or a little too late." Last month, he said that if elected, he would allow Powell to complete his term as Fed chairman, especially when he believed Powell was doing the right thing. Last week, Trump said that if elected, he would cut interest rates significantly.

PCA: Passenger car retail sales in July decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 50% for the first time

Recently, the national policy of "scrapping old cars for new ones" has gradually taken effect, corresponding policies and follow-ups have been introduced in various regions, and the effect of releasing consumption potential under policy promotion has been very good. Therefore, the trend of new energy vehicles in July was better than the expectations of passenger car manufacturers' forecasting teams. Analysts say that the car market in July is not as weak as the off-season.

Apple will launch the smallest Mac computer in history in the fall - a new Mac Mini with the M4 chip, embracing AI capabilities. This is the first major design change for the Mac Mini desktop since the era of Steve Jobs, with the appearance shrinking to the size of an Apple TV set-top box, referred to by developers as "an iPad Pro in a small box." Apple plans to switch all Mac computers to the M4 chip by next year, with AI capabilities as a major selling point, hoping to boost sales.

Details of Google's antitrust ruling exposed: Microsoft pays Apple not to use Bing

An Apple executive said, "Even if Microsoft offers Bing for free, or even gives it away with the company, we won't consider it." Google and Apple have signed a win-win agreement for ten years. Apple is not unwilling to develop its own search engine, but to replicate Google's current technological infrastructure, it may cost at least $20 billion.

The global regulatory antitrust storm continues, Amazon's $4 billion investment in Anthropic faces scrutiny from UK regulators

Ultraman shows off "Strawberry," sparking discussions, a mysterious new model appears in the arena, and the first wave of user testing by netizens has arrived. Last month, OpenAI was reportedly developing a new generation of base model called "Strawberry," which was said to be the mysterious Q* before. Insiders say that OpenAI hopes to significantly improve the reasoning ability of AI models through this project. "Strawberry" has completed pre-training on a very large dataset and used a specialized processing method, such as post-training, etc.

Driven by AI demand, AMD outperforms Intel in the overseas CPU battle in the second quarter!

Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that AMD's CPU sales will achieve a 38% year-on-year growth in 2024, while Intel's growth rate is expected to be only 2%. By 2025, AMD's revenue share in the PC and server markets is expected to reach 25%, significantly higher than last year's 19%.

Two AI pharmaceutical companies announce merger, creating one of the largest AI Bio acquisitionsRecursion and Exscientia plc announced that the two companies have reached a final agreement to merge, with Recursion specializing in industrializing biology to achieve drug discovery and Exscientia dedicated to creating more effective drugs for patients faster.

Industry/Concept

1. Weight Loss Drugs | Global pharmaceutical giant Lilly announced its second-quarter financial results on the 8th, with revenue reaching $11.3028 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%; net profit of $2.967 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%; earnings per share of $3.28, compared to $1.95 in the same period last year; the revenue forecast for the full year 2024 has been raised by $3 billion to a range of $45.4 billion to $46.6 billion. Following the financial report, Lilly's stock surged more than 12% in pre-market trading.

Analysis: The strong performance of Lilly is believed to be mainly attributed to the robust sales of weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro. Lilly previously stated that part of the reason for the upward revision is that the production expansion path for Zepbound, Mounjaro, and similar drugs in the second half of this year is "clearer." GLP-1 drugs can mimic hormones produced in the intestines to suppress appetite and regulate blood sugar, widely welcomed by weight loss enthusiasts worldwide. Lilly is continuously expanding its production scale of weight loss drugs, with analysts suggesting that Zepbound's sales in its first year on the market are expected to exceed $1 billion, potentially becoming the highest-selling drug in history