Goldman Sachs lowers its US recession expectations: "If the non-farm payroll data in early September is also strong, it will further lower the expectations."
Goldman Sachs has lowered the possibility of the United States falling into an economic recession next year from 25% to 20%. If the non-farm payroll data in early September is also positive, it will be further reduced to 15%
After the release of US retail sales and initial jobless claims data this week, Goldman Sachs lowered the risk of a US economic recession.
In a report to clients on Saturday, Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius reduced the likelihood of an economic recession next year from 25% to 20%.
Hatzius further noted that if the August non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for release on September 6th, looks quite good, we may lower the possibility of an economic recession to 15%, a level that has been maintained for nearly a year.
US retail sales in July saw the largest increase since early 2023, while US government data showed the lowest number of initial jobless claims since early July last week. A series of data highlighting the resilience of the US economy pushed US stocks to their best week of the year, with investors bottom fishing after the recent plunge.
Regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, Goldman Sachs economists stated that they are more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the September policy meeting, but the risk of a 50 basis point cut remains possible if there is another unexpected decline in August non-farm payrolls