Apple's conference will open next month, with several new products expected to be released. The new series may kick off a new wave of upgrades

1. Event: Apple Product Launch Event

According to foreign media reports, this year's Apple autumn product launch event will be held on September 10.

The leaker also provided a screenshot of the so-called "event invitation" — the vague Apple logo seems to hint at a new "Desert Gold" color, while the theme of the event "Ready.Set.Capture." may correspond to the new "photo" button added to this year's phones.

Featuring the debut of multiple products including iPhone 16

In terms of new products, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be the highlight, with Apple Intelligence expected to be implemented.

Additionally, the Apple Watch Series 10 is expected to be released in the fall, possibly equipped with a more powerful chip to lay the foundation for possible future Apple Intelligence features. The Apple Watch Ultra 3 is also expected to be released in the fall, expected to at least match the new features of the Series 10, and may introduce new health sensors.

The iPad Pro is expected to be equipped with the M4 chip and a breakthrough ultra-fine XDR display. The prices of the iPad Air and the tenth-generation iPad may be reduced, bringing a completely new design. New versions of the MacBook Pro and iMac are also expected to be released with more advanced chips.

In addition, Apple plans to launch two different levels of AirPods 4, including a low-priced version and a higher-end version. Both models will come with a USB-C charging case and an upgraded earpiece design. The high-end version may feature active noise cancellation and support the "Find" function.

Expected to kick off a new wave of upgrades

According to Dongbei Securities, only hardware specifications with A17Pro and 8GB LPDDR5 or higher support the latest Apple Intelligence (existing models are the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max). They believe that performance pressure can create conditions for upgrades, and the significant substantive innovation of AI phones is the core driving force of the upgrade wave, which is expected to bring global smartphone shipments back to a positive growth cycle, replicating the high-speed growth of smartphones replacing feature phones.

According to IDC, global AI smartphone shipments are expected to reach 170 million units in 2024, accounting for 15% of the global smartphone market; according to Counterpoint, the global AI smartphone penetration rate is expected to reach 11% in 2024, rising to 43% by 2027.

Dongbei Securities estimates that considering Apple's AI phones are the iPhone 15 Pro/iPhone 15 Pro Max and later models, the 2024 iPhone forecast is divided into new models, the previous generation Pro+Pro Max, and other models Approximately estimating the market space of the Apple chain based on the material cost of the iPhone (excluding OEM assembly), assuming a 3% increase in material cost rate in 2024, the neutral estimate shows a growth space of 26.93% for the Apple chain.

II. Historical Leading Performance

On July 8th, according to Securities Times, it was learned from personnel of Apple's industrial chain companies that the recent stocking target guidance for the Apple iPhone 16 series has been slightly raised. After the adjustment, the stocking target guidance for the iPhone 16 series this year is around 90 million units.

The next day, the Apple industrial chain surged, with many stocks such as Yitong Communication, Chaoyang Technology, and Huiwei Technology hitting the limit up, heavyweight shareholder Dongshan Precision hitting the limit up, Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and others rising sharply. Leading stock Chaoyang Technology staged a 4-day limit up.

III. Related Companies

The following image shows the Apple industrial chain compiled by Dongbei Securities.