Before Powell's important speech, another senior official from the Federal Reserve "hinted": interest rates need to be cut more than once this year

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2024.08.23 13:51
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In 2024, FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that whether the initial rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points will depend on the data. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly surges, the Fed will have to take more aggressive action

On the second day of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, another senior official from the Federal Reserve came forward to "hint" at an interest rate cut later this year.

On Friday, 2024 FOMC voter and President of the Atlanta Fed, Bostic, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that monetary policy is already close to normalization, and the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates more than once this year.

Taking preemptive action to cut interest rates may be appropriate.

Bostic also mentioned on Friday that inflation is decreasing faster than he expected, although inflation is "not particularly close" to the Federal Reserve's target.

Data suggests that taking action on interest rates is appropriate. For me, I just want to make sure that the next few data points are consistent with this.

Bostic outlined the decisions that the Federal Reserve may make at the September monetary policy meeting, ranging from no rate cut to a 50 basis point cut. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates at the September meeting. Bostic expects the long-term policy rate of the Federal Reserve to be 3%.

He stated that whether the initial rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points will depend on the data. If the unemployment rate unexpectedly surges, the Federal Reserve must take more aggressive action.

However, Bostic also pointed out that the significant revision of non-farm payroll data has not changed people's views on the job market - there has been a "huge change" in the labor market, the unemployment rate has risen, but remains "stable." The inflation dashboard is still "flashing red," and a stable business environment gives the Federal Reserve room to remain patient.

On Thursday local time, the global central bank annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA kicked off. From the intensive statements on the first day, this annual event has already become a "policy hinting session" for Federal Reserve officials.

Three Federal Reserve officials expressed their views on the future interest rate path in interviews with different media outlets:

2025 FOMC voter and President of the Boston Fed, Collins, hinted at supporting a rate cut in September, stating that the Federal Reserve may be suitable to cut rates in a "gradual and orderly" manner.

Similarly having voting rights at the 2025 FOMC meeting, President of the Kansas City Fed, Schmidt, indicated that he is not yet ready to support a rate cut, but mentioned that rate policy should be determined by data.

President of the Philadelphia Fed, Hark, who will have voting rights at the 2026 FOMC meeting, also used the term "gradual and orderly" when discussing rate cut actions