Senior officials from the European Central Bank speak out intensively at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with calls for a rate cut in September on the rise
Several officials of the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee have recently proposed further easing monetary policy at the September meeting. According to a recent survey of economists by the media, the inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to drop to 2.2% in August, after unexpectedly rising to 2.6% in July. Policymakers at the European Central Bank are increasingly concerned about economic growth issues
This week, nine senior officials from the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee attended the annual global central bank meeting at Jackson Hole in the United States, with several officials proposing further easing of monetary policy at the September meeting.
The money markets are currently betting that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates twice more this year, each time by 25 basis points, with September being the next rate cut.
According to the latest survey of economists by the media, the Eurozone's inflation rate in August is expected to fall to 2.2%, after unexpectedly rising to 2.6% in July. This optimistic outlook even includes expectations for a long-awaited decline in core price pressures, as the Eurozone's core CPI has remained at 2.9% for three consecutive months.
The rebound in Eurozone inflation in July caught the European Central Bank off guard. Media reports in July indicated that due to persistent inflation pressures in the Eurozone, ECB officials were losing confidence in cutting rates twice more this year. With cooling Eurozone inflation, the reasons for a rate cut in September become more compelling.
The European Central Bank initiated a milestone rate cut of 25 basis points in June this year, but did not cut rates at the July meeting. The ECB stated that it does not pre-commit to a specific rate path, and the next rate cut will be data-dependent. Internal price pressures remain on the high side, and overall inflation is expected to remain above target levels next year. ECB President Lagarde stated that the decision on a rate cut in September is pending, to be determined by data, as the labor market continues to show remarkable resilience.
It is important to note that in addition to overall inflation data, the ECB also focuses on the interaction between wages, productivity, and corporate profits. While productivity data may be disappointing, a major positive development this week is a significant slowdown in negotiated wages in the second quarter, dropping from 4.7% to 3.6%.
Hawkish Latvian Central Bank Governor Martins Kazaks stated:
Based on the data we currently have, I am very willing to discuss the possibility of another rate cut in September. Overall, I would say that even if inflation remains flat in the coming months, it is consistent with further rate cuts. From the current situation, a gradual, step-by-step approach to rate cuts would be the best.
Croatian Central Bank Governor Boris Vujcic stated:
As long as the data aligns with our forecasts, with inflation expected to drop to 2% by 2025, this will increase our confidence in gradually easing monetary policy restrictions. But we should proceed cautiously, step by step.
Portuguese Central Bank Governor Mario Centeno stated:
In terms of monetary policy, the most likely move is to continue cutting rates. September is easy. After that, everything depends on the data. But it's not about data points, it's about data trajectory. The bet is whether employment can be maintained against the backdrop of economic stagnation. Europe has made significant sacrifices to lower inflation. Even in this soft landing story, we have not seen growth.
Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn stated:
Europe's growth prospects, especially in manufacturing, appear quite bleak. In my view, this supports the case for a rate cut in September Analysis suggests that policymakers at the European Central Bank seem to be increasingly concerned about economic growth. Despite the injection of vitality from the Paris Olympics as shown in this week's PMI data, overall growth is stalling after a strong first half of the year. The eurozone unemployment rate has risen, while consumer confidence has unexpectedly declined. The eurozone's "locomotive" German economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, highlighting its ongoing industrial weakness and waning confidence in the country