Breakfast | NVIDIA is about to release its earnings, institutions: stock price will fluctuate by about 10%

"The most important stock on Earth" NVIDIA to announce earnings after Wednesday's market close, with institutions expecting a 10% price fluctuation

NVIDIA is set to announce its performance for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year on August 28th, Eastern Time.

NVIDIA's performance will impact the entire U.S. stock market. Analysts generally expect the company's second quarter revenue to be $28.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 112.2%. Despite a slight slowdown compared to the over 250% growth in the same period last year, the growth remains strong.

HSBC analyst Frank Lee has raised NVIDIA's target price from $135 to $145 and maintains a buy rating. Lee believes that NVIDIA will continue to grow due to the sustained strong demand for AI GPUs, with "limited impact on earnings from product roadmap delays." HSBC expects NVIDIA's second quarter sales to reach $30 billion, exceeding the company's guidance and the market's general expectations of $28 billion and $28.6 billion.

According to data from options analysis company ORATS, traders expect NVIDIA's stock price to fluctuate by around 10.3% on the day after the earnings announcement, a figure higher than the expected trends before any NVIDIA earnings release in the past three years, and significantly higher than the average 8.1% post-earnings announcement volatility during the same period.

Pinduoduo to announce earnings on Monday, Q2 expected to achieve revenue exceeding 100 billion RMB

According to market consensus, Pinduoduo is expected to achieve revenue of 100.99 billion RMB in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 91.46%; expected earnings per share of 19.01 RMB, a year-on-year increase of 111.27%. The growth rates of Pinduoduo's online marketing services and transaction services in Q2 are expected to slightly slow down, with GMV growth momentum easing.

In the previous quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue reached 86.8 billion RMB, a staggering 131% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 30.6 billion RMB, a 202% increase year-on-year; operating profit surpassed Alibaba for the first time, reaching 25.9 billion RMB. The low-price strategy boosted performance growth, and its cross-border e-commerce platform Temu expanded strongly, leading to a rise in Pinduoduo's stock price after earnings, with its market value surpassing Alibaba at one point.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, investors will focus on Pinduoduo's revenue, GMV growth, and Temu's performance.

NVIDIA to unveil Blackwell architecture details soon

From August 25th to 27th, the annual top chip event Hot Chips will be held at the Memorial Hall of Stanford University in the United States.

NVIDIA stated in its latest blog that a presentation on the 26th will focus on introducing the details of the Blackwell architecture and demonstrating how generative AI models run on Blackwell.

Apple may hold its most anticipated new product launch event on September 10th, with iPhone 16 expected to debut

Annually, September marks Apple's "old tradition" of releasing new iPhone products. This year's highly anticipated launch event may be scheduled for September 10th, meaning that in just over two weeks, the iPhone 16 is set to make its debut Media reports that the iPhone 16 will be equipped with the A18 chip, supported by Apple Intelligence, and will feature a new Capture Button similar to a shutter button for taking photos. It will be available for sale starting on September 20th. Apple will also release the Apple Watch Series 10, a new generation of mid-range AirPods, and is intensively testing four Macs equipped with the M4 chip.

Selling off NVIDIA, reducing positions in Mag 7, US hedge funds "significantly adjusting positions"

Goldman Sachs analyzed the 13F filings of hundreds of US hedge funds, with their total stock positions reaching $2.8 trillion. Goldman found that although the rotation of many popular stocks is small, it is noteworthy that hedge funds are withdrawing from popular tech stocks, including NVIDIA.

Currently, Mag 7 accounts for only 13% of the average hedge fund portfolio. Goldman measured the crowding indicator of hedge funds, and the similarity of industry portfolios has slightly decreased.

The number of hedge funds holding one of the Mag 7 as their top ten positions has generally decreased. The only exception is Apple, with 43 out of the 693 hedge funds tracked by Goldman holding it as one of their top ten positions, up from 30 at the end of the first quarter.

On August 26th, SpaceX conducts a spacewalk mission

The human first commercial spacewalk program driven by SpaceX is set to kick off on August 26th. The focus is not only on the projects to be tested in this mission but also on the spacewalk and the specialized extravehicular suits worn by American astronauts. The human first commercial spacewalk is about to begin, marking the farthest humans have been able to reach in over 50 years since the NASA Apollo program.

Fed turns dovish

Powell hints at a major dovish turn for the Fed: "It's time to adjust policy"; "New Fed Communications Agency" cheers Powell's full dovish turn, hinting at opening the door to larger rate cuts in the future;

US "inflation whistle-blower" Summers: The Fed has recovered from serious inflation errors but has misjudged the neutral rate. Summers also said that if the Fed lowers rates to the level expected by the market, i.e., a benchmark rate of around 3% within the next two years as indicated by derivative markets, he would be surprised.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 63.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 36.5%. The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by November is 36.7%, a 75 basis point cut is 47.9%, and a 100 basis point cut is 15.4%.

Israel: preparing for an "important week"

According to CCTV News, on the 24th local time, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated at a press conference that with the ongoing Cairo negotiations and the battles in the Gaza Strip and the northern border of Israel, Israel is preparing for an "important week" and is fully prepared for both offensive and defensive actions