Oil giant Exxon Mobil: Despite the "net zero emissions" goal, oil demand in 2050 is similar to today's

"American oil giant" Exxon Mobil predicts that by 2050, global oil demand will be the same as or slightly higher than the current level, making it very difficult to achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

On Monday, August 26th, Eastern Time, Exxon Mobil stated in its annual "Global Outlook" that due to the growth in industrial uses such as plastic production and heavy transport, oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day by 2050.

This forecast contrasts sharply with the "Net Zero Emissions Scenario" proposed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which requires a significant 75% reduction in oil demand to 24 million barrels per day by 2050 in order to control global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, meeting the requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Many countries and companies, including Exxon Mobil, have set goals to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. However, as energy demand continues to grow, the difficulty of achieving these goals is increasing. Forecasts from other institutions are also similar to Exxon Mobil's forecast. For example, OPEC expects oil consumption to reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, while pipeline giant Enbridge predicts demand may exceed 110 million barrels per day.

Exxon Mobil's Chief Economist and Energy Director, Chris Birdsall, stated: "Both the International Energy Agency and we believe that the world is not currently on the right track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We must face this reality, otherwise it is self-deception."

Although the growth of renewable energy is expected to lead to a decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2030, Exxon Mobil predicts that the emission reduction by 2050 may only be 25%, which is far from enough to avoid serious climate change. Director Birdsall warned that future energy demand remains high, and if new fossil fuel projects are not invested in, oil supply may decrease by 70% to 30 million barrels per day by 2030, leading to a surge in oil prices and causing significant impact on the global economy.

Birdsall stated that despite environmentalists and some politicians may be dissatisfied with Exxon Mobil's forecasts, believing that the oil industry uses pessimistic forecasts to hinder climate action, the "Global Outlook" is based on realistic data and forecasts to derive "realistic" results. He emphasized that we must strongly convey this information, as some radical elements advocating for "keeping oil in the ground" have begun to influence policies, which is very dangerous.

On Monday, influenced by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, both WTI and Brent crude oil rose for the fourth consecutive day, maintaining an upward trend throughout the day. In early European trading, oil prices rose moderately, and during European trading, there were reports that the eastern government of Libya stated that it would halt all oil production and exports. Oil prices began to accelerate upwards, hitting daily highs in early US trading. WTI crude oil rose by over 3.7% to $77.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by over 3.2% to $81.58 per barrel, both reaching their highest intraday levels since August 19th.