US consumer confidence continues to rise! But "pessimistic" about this area
In August, the US consumer confidence index rose to a 6-month high of 103.3, but the outlook for the labor market became increasingly pessimistic. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to boost confidence, as consumers' expectations for the economy and income prospects have improved. However, due to rising living costs and slowing job growth, consumer confidence remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Consumers' willingness to buy cars and houses has decreased, with 32.8% believing that job opportunities are plentiful, hitting a new low in 2021
US consumer confidence index rose to a 6-month high in August, as optimism about the economy and inflation offset a decline in optimism about the labor market.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose from a revised 101.9 in the previous month to 103.3, higher than the market's expectation of 100.7. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, also improved in August to 82.5.
The Federal Reserve may start implementing the long-awaited rate cut from next month, which could further boost consumer confidence and sustain consumer spending. However, consumer confidence remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels due to rising living costs and recent slowdown in job growth.
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, stated in a release, "While consumers' assessment of current labor market conditions remains positive, it continues to weaken, with a more pessimistic outlook for the future labor market. This may reflect the recent rise in the unemployment rate. Consumers' optimism about future income has also slightly declined."
Consumers' views on the current labor market have cooled. Only 32.8% of consumers believe that jobs are plentiful, hitting a new low since March 2021, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The proportion of those who find jobs hard to get has also increased. The gap between these two indicators, a key measure of the labor market closely watched by economists, has also narrowed to the lowest level in over three years.
Peterson noted that consumers are not very optimistic about the stock market, which may reflect the volatility in early August. Disappointing job reports at that time triggered a global stock sell-off worth $6.4 trillion, but the market later recovered.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that the Fed is "not looking for or welcoming a further slowdown," so the central bank and economists are closely monitoring changes in the labor market. Powell acknowledged that the downside risks to employment are rising while inflation risks are decreasing.
The report shows that consumers' plans to purchase cars and major household appliances declined compared to the previous month. Due to high housing prices and borrowing costs, consumers' willingness to buy homes remains weak