The survey results from three regional Federal Reserve banks are not optimistic: Americans are starting to fear a recession attack

The recent survey results from the three Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Richmond, and Philadelphia have all released a dangerous signal: Americans are starting to fear that an economic recession is about to hit the United States.

As shown in the chart below, whether it is the business outlook survey of the Philadelphia Fed, the manufacturing survey of the Richmond Fed, or the Dallas Fed's Dallas service industry outlook, the relevant indices have further declined, entering a deeper contraction zone.

At the same time, real capital in the United States is weak, with new orders and employment numbers both significantly declining.

Overall, respondents in the surveys of the three regional Federal Reserve Banks reflect a decrease in optimism about future business activities in August.

Some respondents said, "To be honest, I think this economy cannot withstand the destruction it has experienced since 2021." Some said, "I believe an economic recession will hit the United States."

Some reflected, "Our data supports the view that consumer spending is significantly reduced. If spending continues to decline at the current rate until the end of this year, our business will begin to suffer significant negative impacts. We are very concerned that the Fed's rate cuts are not coming soon enough, and when future rate cuts begin to affect the economy, consumer spending will be at recession levels."

Some believe that inflation pressures are not easing as reported, saying, "Strangely, the news headlines say inflation is falling, but in the design and construction industry, we have not seen prices drop." Some complained, "Costs continue to rise, while price pressure from customers and potential customers keeps increasing."

Feedback from some interviewed companies can reflect harm to American consumers.

Some said, "Due to increasing personal debt and interest rate uncertainty, activities have slightly stagnated." Some said, "We continue to see (consumers) delaying purchase decisions." Some bluntly stated, "People have no money, stop the car, throw the keys to the dealer or banker, that's for family cars or food. Worst of all, I think this is just the beginning."

Some companies reflected, "Customers find it difficult to come up with funds to pay for our services." Someone said, "I have been working here for 15 years, and this summer is the worst business period I have seen during this time."

Respondents frequently mentioned the impact of political factors.

Some said, "In my opinion, the biggest problem hindering companies from achieving greater success lies in politics." Some said, "Considering that the psychology of the public and the market is the main driving force of the economy, the upcoming election will determine the direction of American business development for the next four years."

Some believe, "The United States seems to be losing its geopolitical dominance, and this vacuum is giving rise to wars and violence left by the United States, posing significant risks to international trade and reducing opportunities for American businesses Statements against business, taxation, and spending are not conducive to long-term investment and will further weaken the competitiveness of American companies, especially compared to industries and companies supported by the Chinese government."

Some say, "A large amount of political noise has caused disturbances to business owners. Political advertisements have surged, yet are almost worthless, causing concerns for business owners."

A limerick feedback from one interviewee is seen as expressing the sentiments of many: "Some feel that interest rates are a bit too high, many borrowers are suffering, sighing. We plead to lower the interest rates to a level where capital formation won't make people cry."

However, this Tuesday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, also known as the World's Largest Business Federation, released some good news with the Consumer Confidence Index. The index has risen for two consecutive months, with the July data revised up to 101.9, and August exceeding expectations to 103.3, reaching a new high in six months. This reflects consumers' increased confidence in the economic and inflation outlook, while optimism about the labor market has declined. Only about 38.2% of surveyed consumers believe that job opportunities are plentiful, a percentage that has decreased for six consecutive months, hitting a new low since March 2021. The percentage of respondents who believe jobs are hard to find has slightly increased