The job market is gradually cooling down, with the number of initial jobless claims in the United States falling slightly to 231,000 last week

According to the Wisdom Financial APP, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, but the reemployment opportunities for the unemployed are becoming increasingly scarce, indicating that the unemployment rate in August may still be at a high level.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of the week ending August 24, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000, compared to market expectations of 232,000.

With the temporary shutdown of auto plants for production line reorganization and the impact of Hurricane Beryl fading, the number of initial jobless claims has fallen from an 11-month high in late July. This number remains consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market, which should help alleviate concerns about the rapid deterioration of the economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated last week that over the 12 months ending in March of this year, employment growth was exaggerated by 68,000 jobs per month. However, most economists believe that this so-called benchmark revision estimate is misleading.

This benchmark estimate is based on data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which comes from reports submitted by employers to state unemployment insurance programs. The data does not include undocumented immigrants, whom economists believe contributed to last year's strong job growth.

Economists at Morgan Stanley wrote in a report, "The magnitude of the revisions by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may be too large, as the revisions are based on administrative data from unemployment insurance records, which may not cover many new jobs filled by undocumented workers."

The recent significant decline in employment numbers in the labor market has caught the attention of Federal Reserve officials. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted last Friday at an imminent rate cut in response to concerns about the job market.

Financial markets currently expect the Fed to start a easing cycle next month, cutting the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points, with some analysts even suggesting a 50 basis point cut. For over a year, the Fed has kept its policy rate within the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, and has raised a total of 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023.

In addition, the report on continued jobless claims showed that as of the week ending August 17, the number of ongoing jobless claims increased by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.868 million, a level close to the end of 2021.

Based on this data, economists currently expect the unemployment rate this month to remain near a three-year high of 4.3%, or to slightly decrease to 4.2%. It is understood that the unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months, reflecting to some extent the surge in labor supply caused by immigration