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CICC analyst Liu Gang believes that there have been several marginal changes and signals in the credit cycle framework between China and the United States recently.
- After the US interest rates recently dropped to the same level as in January this year, both existing home sales and new home sales in July showed improvement. Similar repairs also occurred in February and March, driving the acceleration of US residents' mortgages in the first quarter, achieving "credit expansion" in the private sector.
2. In July, China's fiscal deficit impulse and the marginal improvement in social financing bond issuance accelerated slightly year-on-year. A similar situation also occurred in the fourth quarter of last year. Transitioning to mortgages can solve some of the problems of financing costs, inverted return rates, and consumption capacity.
Liu Gang stated that the credit cycle in China formed a "small wave" resonance in the first quarter, one relying on the private sector and the other on fiscal policy. This partly explains the bullish trend in the US real estate chain, export chain, and pro-cyclical market in the first and second quarters.
Whether these two changes can be sustained remains to be seen in the next one or two months, considering the imminent Fed rate cut and the impact of the upcoming election.
