US stock market rally slows, waiting for rate cut "shoe to drop" | Overseas major asset weekly report
September: Worst month for seasonal stock market performance + Fed rate cut finally implemented
This week (8.26-8.30), the inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve showed a moderate increase, adding signs of an economic "soft landing". The upward trend of the US stock market slowed significantly this week. The possibility of a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September has decreased, with Wall Street still expecting a significant rate cut in November or December.
The S&P 500 index rose by 2.28% in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.76% in August. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.66% in August. The more economically sensitive Russell 2000 Index fell by 1.63% in August. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 1.42% in August. The pan-European Stoxx 600 Index rose by 1.33% in August.
The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond, sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 33.27 basis points in August, while the 10-year yield fell by 12.04 basis points in August.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated downward in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline with a total decrease of 2.27%.
Expectations of increased supply from OPEC+, regional conflict changes, and slow weakening of US demand led to a 5.6% decline in US oil prices in August. Brent crude oil fell by 2.38% in August. Due to lingering expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, gold prices rose for the month, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $2531.60 on August 20th. Most London industrial metals rose in August.
The economic data in the US in August repeated the pattern of "initial suppression followed by rebound" seen in July. Following this, the market is about to face the worst month of the year for US stocks, with non-farm payroll data coming out next week.
