Countdown one week! Apple iPhone 16 is coming soon, is the largest-ever wave of phone upgrades about to begin?

According to the Zhītōng Finance APP, Apple (AAPL.US) will release some new product models at the "It's Glowtime" autumn new product launch event next Monday, which will integrate Apple Intelligence into its latest product line, becoming the focus of analysts' attention.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring stated in an investor report, "Apple Intelligence remains key to unlocking pent-up iPhone demand and accelerating the replacement cycle. We expect Apple's 'It's Glowtime' event on September 9th to focus on the integration of artificial intelligence in the new iPhone 16. However, pricing and battery life of the iPhone will also be key details to watch."

It is understood that Apple Intelligence is an artificial intelligence platform that will be used in Apple's iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia. This event may also introduce new Apple Watch and AirPods, and may reveal details of the trade-in value changes for iPhones.

Apple CEO Cook stated in June when Apple Intelligence was released, "Our unique approach combines generative artificial intelligence with users' personal backgrounds to provide truly useful intelligence. It can access this information in a completely private and secure manner to help users do what matters most to them."

Woodring pointed out, "Historically, iPhone launch events have been 'sell-the-news' events, with Apple's stock performance on the day of the iPhone launch slightly underperforming the market, and also only slightly outperforming the market in the three months after the event."

While Morgan Stanley does not expect much difference in market reaction after this year's event, the firm does believe that the release of the iPhone 16 can unlock pent-up demand and accelerate the iPhone replacement cycle. Compared to the pre-5G cycle, the number of upgradable iPhone users has increased by 40%.

Woodring noted that the iPhone upgrade cycle has also peaked at 4.8 years, increasing the likelihood of iPhone upgrades in the "next 3-12 months, which is a key factor supporting Apple as our top pick stock."

He added, "While we still believe that the launch of Apple Intelligence features will be staggered this fall, the more Apple Intelligence features are showcased on the new iPhone 16 with 8GB of DRAM and a more powerful processor, the more likely consumers are to associate Apple Intelligence with purchasing a new iPhone."

Wedbush also holds high expectations for this round of iPhone replacement cycle, with analysts at the firm pointing out that this event will kick off the "largest upgrade cycle in Apple's history." "Our recent survey in Asia has given us more confidence that the upcoming upgrade cycle will bring long-awaited growth recovery to Apple next year," analysts said.

Wedbush currently expects the initial shipment volume of iPhone 16 to exceed 90 million units, surpassing the market's expectations of between 80 to 84 million units, marking a double-digit year-on-year growth.

The bank estimates that globally, about 300 million iPhones have not been upgraded in over four years, laying the foundation for a significant surge in demand.

"We believe that with the ongoing AI-driven upgrade cycle, Apple's iPhone sales in the 2025 fiscal year could exceed 240 million units," the analyst continued, "The Chinese market remains key to Apple's growth, and with the arrival of the 2025 fiscal year, starting with the iPhone 16, this key region will once again see improvements in growth."

Furthermore, Wedbush analysts believe that with the upcoming launch of Apple Intelligence, Apple may become the "gatekeeper of the consumer AI revolution."

Over the next 6 to 12 months, Wedbush expects developers to create hundreds of AI-driven applications, which could make significant contributions to Apple's success. This integration could bring about approximately $10 billion in high-margin annual growth to Apple's services division