Already entered the "worst month in history"! Will Bitcoin fall back to $50,000?

As cryptocurrency traders are still waiting for a clear direction on the Fed rate cut and the upcoming presidential election, the weak trading market for Bitcoin may continue for another month.

August was a tough month for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin falling by 10.25%, marking its largest monthly decline since April, while Ethereum dropped by 23.66%, its third consecutive monthly decline and the largest monthly drop since June 2022.

It is worth noting that despite Bitcoin's partial success in 2024 due to the emergence of spot ETFs, other cryptocurrencies have not followed Bitcoin's rise to new highs, instead struggling to make progress. Rob Ginsberg, a chart analyst at Wolfe Research, said:

"The overall situation in the cryptocurrency space is not optimistic at the moment, with Bitcoin still stuck in a downward channel, gradually declining from its high point in March. While a brief breakthrough would be very positive, we still respect this major trend. In the coming weeks, Bitcoin may revisit the bottom range, around the $50,000 low point area."

"Since peaking in March, Bitcoin's trend has been deteriorating, with a series of lows," added Ginsberg. "Unless this trend changes, whether through a breakthrough or a more gradual reversal, we will continue to maintain a bearish outlook on Bitcoin's short to medium-term prices."

Bitcoin saw a slight decline over the weekend, approaching $58,000. Historically, September is the worst-performing month for Bitcoin and other markets (such as US stocks). According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has closed lower in 8 out of the past 11 Septembers, with the month having the largest average annual decline of 4.8% for Bitcoin.

However, Bitcoin ended its six-year decline streak in September last year. Since April, Bitcoin has been hovering between $50,000 and $70,000, and is expected to remain in this range for at least the next month. According to Alex Thorn, research director at cryptocurrency asset management company Galaxy Digital, aside from the early declines, another reason that made August so difficult was the oversupply of Bitcoin, although it is said that these oversupply issues have now largely subsided or been resolved.

"Most of the Bitcoin held by the US government was confiscated from thefts and is likely to be returned rather than sold. The German government has completed its sales, we believe the Bitcoin legacy from Mt. Gox has been largely distributed, and all bankrupt companies have returned available tokens to creditors," Thorn said. "From a supply perspective, the future looks bright for Bitcoin. The distribution of the legacy of the collapsed exchange FTX could be a positive catalyst, and we expect the repayment action to be initiated within the next six months." Thorn added, "This distribution will provide a large amount of cash to a group of creditors composed of known cryptocurrency investors, who may consider reinvesting in the industry." According to Thorn, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within a range until November, as the U.S. presidential election has a significant impact on investors. He stated, "A Trump victory could be a positive catalyst, while any negative impact from a Harris win may be insignificant." "I expect the market to be volatile until we have more clarity on rate cuts expectations and the election."

Analyst John Todaro from Needham said, "At this stage, there doesn't seem to be a clear leader in the U.S. presidential election. Although the market has already priced in a significant rate cut, the question is how much and when the Fed will cut rates."

Thorn mentioned, only unexpected events will truly impact Bitcoin's short-term price at the moment.