Goldman Sachs trader discusses market focus: AI, US consumption, rate cuts... What's your take?

As August came to a close, following the significant volatility at the beginning of the month, the US stock market experienced some ups and downs, ultimately ending with a 2.4% increase.

On September 3rd, Tony Pasquariello, head of hedge fund business at Goldman Sachs, published an article reviewing and looking ahead at the US stock market.

Growing Concerns about Monetization, AI Momentum Weakening

The second-quarter earnings report released in August showed that NVIDIA's revenue maintained rapid growth, but the guidance did not meet Wall Street's most optimistic expectations. Additionally, the delayed delivery of the so-called "strongest chip ever," Blackwell, caused NVIDIA's stock price to plummet by 8% in after-hours trading.

Tony believes that this sends a signal that while there is strong growth in the technology sector, discussions about capital expenditures are on the rise, leading to a more "two-sided" presentation of the AI theme.

The article quoted industry expert Pete Callahan:

"The generative AI theme has become more two-sided - the good news is NVIDIA's data center grew by 155% year-on-year, but the not-so-good news is the downward revision in quarterly earnings per share."

"As investors look for clues on the monetization of AI to balance, the 'one-way' momentum of this theme has decreased, with cloud providers facing increasing capital expenditure burdens."

What is the Tone of US Consumer Spending?

In Tony's view, US consumer spending has clearly slowed compared to a year ago, but it still shows resilience and is definitely more robust than what the bears believe.

The article cited Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, who stated that official data shows a 2.9% increase in personal consumer spending in the second quarter of the US, indicating a strong economy with stable and healthy consumption prospects - jointly driven by a healthy job market, strong real income growth, and the strongest family balance sheets in history.

David mentioned that the US GDP growth rate is still expected to achieve higher-than-expected levels of 2.7% in the third quarter and 2.3% in the fourth quarter.

What's Next for the US Stock Market?

Regarding the volatility at the beginning of the month, the article quoted Wall Street financial professional Tom Eason:

"Following NVIDIA's earnings announcement, the VIX index still maintains relatively high stickiness, so we believe the market still needs some time to shake off the volatility surge at the beginning of the month."

Tony stated that the extent of the broadening uptrend in the US stock market has exceeded expectations. So far this year, out of the 11 sectors in the S&P, 6 sectors (financials, utilities, industrials, healthcare, materials, real estate) are at 52-week highs, which Tony sees as a bullish signal.

Looking ahead, if there are scenarios such as the Federal Reserve only cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September, weak August non-farm payroll data, and increased uncertainty in the US presidential election, the market may experience "some volatility" in the fall.

How Much Rate Cut in September? Key Focus on Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls

Currently, the interest rate market is pricing in a 33 basis point rate cut in September. The article points out that Friday's release of the non-farm payroll report will be the decisive factor in the Federal Reserve's decision.Tony stated that, from a longer-term perspective, inflation data will determine the trajectory of the easing cycle, while economic data will determine the pace and magnitude of the easing cycle. The upcoming economic activity indicators will continue to be the focus of the market's attention