The future market size exceeds trillions of dollars, Tesla's Robotaxi launch event may be scheduled at this time

1. Event: Tesla Robotaxi Release

According to Bloomberg's news on August 31st, Tesla plans to release the Robotaxi Tesla rental car on October 10th.

Reports indicate that Tesla has chosen the Warner Bros. Studios in the Los Angeles area, known for filming famous works such as "Batman" and "Friends," as the venue for the release event. Musk previously used Hollywood studio space in 2016 to demonstrate Tesla's solar roof products. Tesla has not yet responded to this.

At the shareholders' meeting in July this year, Musk described the operating model of Robotaxi, similar to a combination of Uber and Airbnb. In the future, the expected operating revenue of Robotaxi will account for 63% of the total revenue of the commercial line, with an impact on EBITDA and market value exceeding 85%.

In the same month, the news of the postponement of the Robotaxi release date from August 8th to October directly ended Tesla's 11 consecutive days of stock price increase. Musk explained that the reason for the delay was some design modifications, and the delayed release also allowed Tesla to "have the opportunity to showcase some other content."

In addition, in April of this year, Tesla announced that it would launch a self-driving ride-hailing app, and Musk may release more details at the October event.

What are the possible highlights of Robotaxi hardware?

For the upcoming Tesla Robotaxi, Everbright Securities has put forward three speculations:

Speculation 1, the possibility of equipping with HW5.0 intelligent driving chip:

1. The video input required for Robotaxi may increase significantly, with real-time cloud + on-board data transmission and increased computing power requirements; 2) The price range of Robotaxi may decrease, reducing costs; 3) The timing of the release of HW5.0 may match the pace of the launch of the new Robotaxi model.

Speculation 2, central computing/multi-domain integration + upgrade of electronic and electrical architecture:

There is a trend towards central integrated electronic and electrical architecture, showing central computing + multi-domain integration. It is expected that Tesla's self-driving module and entertainment module will further integrate.

Speculation 3, upgrade of interior design/chassis:

There may be further upgrades/simplifications in the interior design and chassis of Robotaxi. 1) The size of Robotaxi may decrease, the interior space may increase, and there may be further optimization of the interior design. 2) It is expected that the entire power system of Robotaxi will be upgraded and optimized.

In addition, according to Huajin Securities, the supply chain of Tesla's FSD hardware is as follows:

How is the development of Robotaxi in China?

According to Huajin Securities, domestic Robotaxi companies are mainly divided into autonomous driving internet companies and traditional manufacturers, with autonomous driving internet companies currently leading the way.

In terms of cities where the service is available and testing mileage, internet companies such as RoboSense, WeRide, and Pony.ai are leading in commercialization progress; while traditional manufacturers such as T3 Travel, Chang'an/Dongfeng/FAW, Qidian Travel/GAC Group, and Caocao Travel/Geely are starting road tests later but actively seeking cooperation with autonomous driving solution providers to promote the commercialization of Robotaxi.

Among them, RoboSense is currently the fastest progressing company in the commercialization of Robotaxi in China. In Wuhan, the average daily mileage per vehicle reaches 300 kilometers, with a charge of about 1.78 yuan/kilometer, and the daily income is around 534 yuan; with the mass production and gradual operation of the low-cost sixth-generation unmanned vehicle, coupled with economies of scale reducing labor costs, the daily costs are expected to continue to improve.

RoboSense expects to achieve breakeven in Wuhan by the end of the year and achieve overall profitability next year. In terms of order volume and fleet size, Baidu RoboSense is significantly ahead of leading Robotaxi companies Waymo and Cruise in the U.S. market.

Changjiang Securities pointed out that looking ahead, Robotaxi travel services are one of the most direct ways to commercialize high-level fully autonomous driving functions in the passenger car field, with broad market space in the long term. It is expected that the global Robotaxi market size will exceed $2 trillion by 2030.

Historical Performance of Leading Companies

In mid-July, the surge in orders for "RoboSense" caused a frenzy, keeping the concept of intelligent ride-hailing services hot in the A-share market. On July 15, Jinjiang Online, Xingwang Yuda, Haoen Auto Electric, and Hezhong Sizhuang all hit the daily limit for five consecutive days.

Related Companies

According to Huajin Securities, for Tesla's FSD hardware, the suppliers of onboard cameras include Lianchuang Electronics and Yutong Optics, while the suppliers of millimeter-wave radar include Weifu High-Technology, among others.

In addition, previous popular companies in the Robotaxi sector include Dazhong Transportation, Jinjiang Online, Xingwang Yuda, and Jiaoyun Stock