Intelligent Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Mortgage Refinancing Resembles Dawn Again, "Monster Stock" Plummets 98.40%

[Market Analysis]

A-shares continue to decline, this trend is very unsettling, similar to the past few months, rising at the end of the month for a day, and then falling continuously. However, it should not be a simple repetition, as the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month is still worth looking forward to. Hong Kong stocks also experienced a slight adjustment today, closing down by 0.23%, with trading volume shrinking to 79.3 billion, giving a sense of being unable to rise.

The trade dispute continues. According to the Shanghai Securities News, Canada announced earlier that starting from October 1st this year, a 100% tariff will be imposed on electric cars produced in China; and starting from October 15th, a 25% tariff will be imposed on steel and aluminum products from China. In response, China promptly took countermeasures, such as launching an anti-dumping investigation on canola seeds imported from Canada. Canola seed futures surged by up to 9.6%, but there are no corresponding varieties in the Hong Kong stock market. Next, based on domestic industry applications, China will initiate anti-dumping investigations on relevant chemical products from Canada. From the above actions, it is uncertain whether there will be further countermeasures against the EU's car tariffs.

Today's adjustment also has internal reasons, mainly due to the drag from bank stocks, with the best-performing Agricultural Bank of China (01288) falling by 2.82%. Financial stocks, in general, are performing poorly. Yesterday, it was mentioned that China Merchants Bank indirectly denied the rumor of mortgage transfers, but today, the market seems to have regained confidence. As mentioned in yesterday's analysis: "Real estate, as a major part of the economy, instability is indeed a problem."

Let's see if there are any related actions next. The market tends to have confidence in real estate, such as Greentown Management Holdings (09979): Key executives increased their holdings by a total of 15.452 million shares, and the stock surged by nearly 7% today. Other varieties like Shimao Group (00813), Sunac China Holdings (00884), and China Vanke (02202) all saw gains of around 4%. Relatively speaking, property-related performances are generally good, with better resilience, such as China Overseas Property (02669), and Poly Property Group (06049).

Yesterday, it was reported by the media that major photovoltaic glass producers in mainland China held a symposium to discuss the possibility of closing some production capacity. Today, it is rumored that the top ten photovoltaic glass factories have agreed to reduce production by 30%. If the rumor is true, it means that the policy-led supply-side reform is officially starting, and the improvement in industry fundamentals is worth looking forward to. Stocks mentioned in yesterday's analysis, such as Flat Glass (06865) and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (00968), saw gains of over 3%. Others include XinXing Ductile Iron Pipes (03800).

The electric bicycle replacement policy is catalyzing again. Shanghai: Promoting the replacement of old electric bicycles with new ones, providing a one-time subsidy of 500 yuan to individual consumers who meet the requirements. The most benefited stock mentioned yesterday, Tianneng Power International (00819), surged by over 7% today. After Shanghai's initiative, it is expected that other affluent cities will also actively promote this policy. Yadea Group Holdings (01585), a star stock in September, is worth continued attention.

China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) and China State Shipbuilding (601989.SH) announced a merger plan to focus on national strategies and improve operational quality through stock exchange. China Shipbuilding plans to absorb and merge China State Shipbuilding by issuing A-shares to all shareholders of China State Shipbuilding. The purpose of this restructuring is to further focus on national major strategies, strengthen the main responsibility of military equipment development, accelerate the high-quality development of shipbuilding assembly business, regulate industry competition, and improve the operational quality of listed companies However, overall, it is difficult to compare with the once glorious Chinese car. Pay attention to whether China Shipbuilding (00317) and Hudong Zhonghua Shipbuilding will also restructure from the perspective of solving industry competition.

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, recently, Midea Group Co., Ltd. conducted a listing hearing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and disclosed a set of information after the hearing. Midea Group's plan to list in Hong Kong this time aims to raise USD 2 to 3 billion, and is expected to officially land on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as September. Midea actually has a lot of money, with dividends totaling hundreds of billions. The purpose of the listing, on the one hand, is to choose the more internationally oriented Hong Kong stock market for higher international exposure, hoping to attract global investors more vigorously. On the other hand, Midea Group has conducted a series of mergers and acquisitions overseas to layout the overseas market, including the acquisition of Toshiba's white goods business in Japan, the Italian commercial air conditioning company Clivet, Germany's KUKA, Egypt's Miraco, the United States' Eureka, and partial equity of many other overseas home appliance companies.

Shanghai: For individual consumers who purchase eligible sofas, mattresses, cabinets, home appliances, home decoration, and home products, a 15% subsidy will be provided based on the selling price. Consumers can receive subsidies through three mobile payment methods: UnionPay QuickPass, Alipay, and WeChat Pay, each subsidy not exceeding 2,000 yuan. With Midea's listing and continuous policy enhancement, the home appliance sector has been activated again, with companies like TCL Electronics (01070), Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ), Haier Smart Home (06690) all rising by more than 3%.

The conflict between WeChat and Apple has escalated again. In the past two days, there have been rumors that WeChat may not support the iPhone 16, and once the iPhone is upgraded to the iOS 18.2 system, WeChat will not be usable. The "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" learned from informed sources that this news is not true. At the same time, in response to the above rumors, a technical consultant from Apple China also stated that whether the iOS system or Apple devices can continue to use WeChat, including whether WeChat can continue to be listed and downloaded on the Apple App Store in the future, needs to be determined through mutual communication and discussion between Apple and Tencent.

This matter has long been heard of, originating from Tencent's Chief Strategy Officer James Mitchell revealing that Tencent is considering providing in-app transaction services through Apple's iOS payment system. If this agreement is reached, Apple will receive a certain percentage of the revenue. In the end, it's all about interests, and it is estimated that they will negotiate and handle it. Apple used to be quite dominant, especially when Huawei was restrained, as there were almost no competitors in the high-end field. But now it's different, its sales have been challenged by Huawei, and the EU is also fighting back. In March this year, the EU imposed a huge fine of 18.4 billion euros on Apple for its dominant position in the music streaming application market, forcing Apple to adjust its "Apple tax" in certain regions.

Compared to the two giants, Apple is more passive because the Chinese market is indispensable. Recently, Apple CEO Tim Cook made an important announcement on Weibo: China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest iPhone market. Looking at the data, Apple's iPhone sales in 2023 are 225.3 million units, with the U.S. market accounting for about 15%, approximately 33.79 million units. According to the smartphone market share report for the second quarter of 2023, Apple's market share in China has reached 15.3% More than 20% of its total revenue. What are the consequences of buying an Apple phone in China if WeChat cannot be used?

On the other hand, Tencent's WeChat has about 100 million overseas users, but most of them are Chinese living abroad who use WeChat to stay in touch with relatives and friends in China. The overseas version of WeChat mainly refers to the version distributed through the Google Play Store. The overall impact on business is limited, not a standard configuration. However, the overseas influence and internationalization will be affected. Of course, Tencent also earns a good income through WeChat mini-games on Apple's platform. It is impossible to follow the common 30% revenue sharing model, so it is best to form a win-win situation.

Another "demon stock" collapsed today: Sino Energy International Holdings Group (02459) plummeted by over 98.40%. The direct reason is that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission recently inquired about the company's shareholding distribution, revealing that only 98.9416 million shares (9.80% of the issued share capital) are held by other shareholders. This means that over 90% is controlled by related parties, allowing the stock price to be manipulated with minimal funds. In May this year, the stock price surged from less than HKD 4 to a high of HKD 23.1. Naturally, investigations will be carried out, leading to panic selling. The company's stock was temporarily suspended from trading starting at 2:50 pm on September 3, 2024. Investors need to be vigilant against stocks with high concentration.

[Sector Focus]

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced the China Road Logistics Price Index for August today (3rd). In August, the China Road Logistics Price Index was 104.2 points, up 1.03% from the previous month. Looking at the index by vehicle type, all vehicle type indices showed a rebound. Among them, the full truck index, mainly for bulk commodities and regional transportation, was 104.5 points, up 1.06% from the previous month.

Due to the impact of high temperatures and heavy rainfall, the supply of transportation capacity in some regions has decreased, leading to adjustments in market supply and demand balance. The price index has seen a slight continuous rebound, and with the ongoing economic recovery, this year's overall level is better than the same period last year.

Overall, the logistics industry has performed well, indicating a high level of industry prosperity. As the economy continues to recover, the logistics industry will be one of the first to pick up. Key stocks: ZTO Express (02057), JD Logistics (02618), Best Express-W (01519), ANE Logistics (09956).

[Stock Analysis]

CStone Pharmaceuticals (02096): Signing of TGRX-326 Cooperation Agreement with TargImmune Brings Expected Stable Revenue Growth for the Year

The company announced that Hainan CStone Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (a subsidiary of the company) and Shenzhen TargImmune Biopharma Co., Ltd. (TargImmune) have entered into a cooperation agreement for TGRX-326 (the Agreement). According to the Agreement, CStone Pharmaceuticals will obtain the exclusive commercialization rights of TGRX-326 in mainland China, TargImmune will receive over USD 20 million as an upfront payment, and will pay promotion service fees to CStone Pharmaceuticals. This cooperation will further strengthen the group's product layout in the field of lung cancer.

Analysis: TGRX-326 is a best-in-class new anti-tumor molecule independently developed by TargImmune, filling the gap in domestic third-generation ALK inhibitors, bringing new hope for ALK/ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer patients Frontage Holdings is a biopharmaceutical company under the Frontage Pharmaceutical Group, focusing on the research and development, production, and commercialization of innovative anti-tumor drugs. The product is expected to quickly enter the market in the future, allowing Chinese lung cancer patients to have access to more effective medications sooner.

The company's revenue in the first half of the year fell by 7.9% year-on-year, in line with the previous performance forecast. Management expects the company's full-year revenue to remain stable or slightly increase year-on-year. It is projected that the compound annual growth rates of revenue and adjusted net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 are expected to reach 14% and 21%, respectively.

According to a report by CICC, the company benefits from the increasing evidence of Xibei Xin in evidence-based medicine, recommendation levels in guidelines, and expanding hospital coverage. The anti-tumor drug Kesira will fully participate in the medical insurance negotiation at the end of the year. If successful, annual sales are expected to quickly rise to over 500 million RMB. In the next 18 months, the company will also launch the monoclonal antibodies Suvisita and Daleray, with a total maximum sales potential of over 3 billion RMB. The company spent HKD 5.0614 million to repurchase 860,000 shares on September 2, 2024.

[Disclaimer] This VIP information product is for communication and discussion purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Reproduction without authorization is strictly prohibited. For more high-quality information and data products, please log in to the China Fortune Financial APP for inquiries