Gold shines alone! Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold prices rising to $2700, while other commodities may "cool off"

According to the Smart Finance app, supported by the upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve and continuous buying from central banks in emerging markets, gold remains Goldman Sachs' favorite commodity in the near term, serving as the preferred tool for hedging geopolitical and financial risks. Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $2,700 per ounce for gold by 2025 and recommends buying gold. At the same time, Goldman Sachs is cautious about other commodities such as natural gas and oil.

Goldman Sachs stated that since the mid-2022, central banks have doubled their gold purchases due to concerns about U.S. financial sanctions and U.S. sovereign debt, which is a structural trend that will continue.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs stated in a report on September 2 that in the current weak cyclical background, gold has become the most favored commodity by Goldman Sachs in the near term.

Spot gold rose 0.21% on Tuesday to $2,502.55 per ounce, marking the second consecutive monthly increase in August.

Furthermore, the upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to attract Western capital back to the gold market, a scenario that did not occur during the significant rise in gold prices over the past two years.

"Our analysis indicates that assuming the same magnitude of increase in financial sanctions as seen since 2021, the gold price will rise by 15%; if the U.S. CDS spread widens by a standard deviation of 13 basis points amid escalating debt concerns, the gold price will also see a similar increase."

Due to the particularly price-sensitive Chinese market digesting the recent rise in gold prices, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its target from $2,700 to the beginning of 2025 from the previous end of 2024.

In terms of energy, Goldman Sachs believes that "the global natural gas market direction is clear, but there is a downward trend." Specifically, Goldman Sachs expects the upcoming global liquefied natural gas supply surge to drive European natural gas prices below €20 per megawatt-hour.

"We expect an additional supply of over 200 million tons by 2029, far exceeding the annual average growth in liquefied natural gas demand in Asia of nearly 20 million tons. It is clear that the market needs to stimulate incremental demand by lowering natural gas prices so that the continuously growing supply of liquefied natural gas can find a home."

Regarding oil, Goldman Sachs currently expects a reduction in this summer's supply shortage, with oversupply expected to be slightly higher than previously anticipated by 2025. Goldman Sachs recently lowered the Brent crude price range by $5 per barrel to $70-85 per barrel and reduced the average price forecast for Brent crude in 2025 to $77 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has postponed its copper price forecast of $12,000 per ton from the end of 2024 to after 2025. This implies an average expected copper price of $10,100 per ton in 2025, still significantly higher than the current $9,231, but notably lower than the previous expectation of $15,000.

Against the backdrop of rising aluminum inventories, continuous increase in Chinese production, and declining Chinese imports, Goldman Sachs has also postponed its year-end target of $2,600 per ton for aluminum to the end of 2025.

Therefore, the institution has revised its aluminum price forecast for 2025 from the previous $2,850 per ton to $2,540 per ton, believing that the upward risk in this estimate comes from China's aluminum production capacity reaching its limit, ultimately driving a rebound in Chinese aluminum imports