Fed Beige Book: Most Districts Report Economic Stability or Decline, Increasing Difficulty in Finding Jobs
The Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that economic activity in most districts has stalled or declined in recent weeks, making it more difficult for job seekers to find work. Overall employment levels remain unchanged or slightly increased, with fewer layoffs, but employers' willingness to hire has decreased. The report notes that the number of districts where economic activity is flat or declining has increased to 9, although economic activity is expected to remain stable or improve in the coming months. With the slowdown in the job market, some experts predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut at the September meeting
According to the latest Beige Book survey by the Federal Reserve, economic activity in most districts has stalled or declined in recent weeks. The report, compiled by the Cleveland Fed based on information collected through August 26, covers feedback and comments from businesses within the 12 regional Fed bank districts.
The report released on Wednesday indicated that overall employment levels remained unchanged or slightly increased. While layoffs were rare, some companies mentioned reducing shifts and work hours, leaving vacancies unfilled, or natural attrition to reduce staff numbers.
The report stated, "Employers are more cautious in hiring, with a decreased willingness to expand their workforce, mainly due to concerns about demand and uncertain economic prospects." It also noted that during this period, price and wage growth remained moderate.
The Beige Book pointed out that car sales continued to vary across different regions, with growth in some areas while slowing in others due to rising interest rates and high car prices. Manufacturing activity declined in most regions, with two regions indicating that this decline is part of an ongoing contraction in the industry. Residential construction and real estate activity showed mixed results, although reports from most regions indicated softening home sales. Similarly, reports on commercial construction and real estate activity were mixed.
The report revealed that the number of districts where economic activity remained flat or declined increased from 5 to 9 since the last report, while 3 districts saw some growth in economic activity. However, most contacts expect economic activity to remain stable or improve in the coming months. Additionally, job seekers reported increasing difficulty in finding employment, with longer search times.
Recent economic data has shown a similar trend. With the slowdown in the US job market and decreasing inflation pressure, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted last month that the timing for a rate cut may be ripe. It is widely expected that policymakers will announce a rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting.
Macro strategist Cameron Crise noted that the Beige Book has maintained a pessimistic view on economic growth throughout the post-pandemic period, with the most optimistic assessment of US economic expansion being "moderate." The latest Beige Book indicated "slight" growth in 3 districts, while economic growth in the other 9 districts remained flat or negative. This is slightly less positive than the previous report. In isolation, this sounds bad, and it certainly provides the Fed with a reason to adjust rates this month, but it's not much different from most situations in recent years. In any case, the market can easily use this as an excuse to pour more funds into the bond market