Fed Beige Book: Economic activity in most parts of the United States is stagnant or declining
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve shows that economic activity in most parts of the United States has stalled or declined, while employment levels have remained steady or slightly increased. Although there are fewer reports of layoffs, some companies are reducing shifts and work hours. Employers are more cautious in hiring, with expectations of stable or improved economic activity in the coming months. Recently, consumer spending has decreased, the unemployment rate has slightly risen, and a rate cut is expected for the first time. Overall wage growth is moderate, but a soft job market is leading to a decrease in inflation data
The Federal Reserve stated in its latest Beige Book that in recent weeks, economic activity in most regions of the United States has remained flat or declined.
According to the report released on Wednesday, overall employment levels have remained flat or slightly increased. While reports of layoffs are rare, some companies have reduced shifts and work hours, left vacant positions unfilled, or reduced staff numbers through natural attrition.
The report stated, "Employers are more selective in hiring, less likely to expand their workforce, due to concerns about demand and uncertain economic prospects." The Federal Reserve reported that during this period, prices and wages have increased slightly. Respondents in various regions generally expect price and cost pressures to stabilize or further ease in the coming months.
In recent weeks, the number of regions reporting flat or declining economic activity has increased to 9, up from 5 in the previous quarter. Economic activity in three regions has shown some growth. However, contacts in the regions generally expect economic activity to remain stable or improve in the coming months.
Job seekers have expressed that finding a job has become increasingly difficult and time-consuming. Recent data also paints a similar picture. Overall, wage growth has been moderate, while the increase in labor input costs and sales prices ranges from slight to moderate. Consumer spending has decreased in most regions, while in the previous reporting period, consumer spending remained stable overall.
In recent months, the unemployment rate has slightly increased, and employers have also reduced hiring. According to another report released earlier on Wednesday, job vacancies in the United States fell to the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. The weakness in the U.S. job market, coupled with declining inflation data, led Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to state last month that the time has come for the Fed to lower interest rates. It is widely expected that the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 17th to 18th in Washington will see the first rate cut.
The latest edition of the Beige Book was compiled by the Cleveland Fed based on information collected by August 26th or earlier. The report includes comments and anecdotes on the business conditions in the Federal Reserve's 12 districts, collected directly from businesses and other contacts.
Macro strategist Cameron Crise stated that throughout the post-pandemic period, the Beige Book has maintained a pessimistic view on economic growth, with the most optimistic assessment of U.S. economic expansion being "moderate". The latest Beige Book notes that the economy in three regions has "slightly" grown, while in the other nine regions, economic growth has remained flat or even negative. This is slightly less favorable than the previous report. In isolation, this sounds bad, and it is certain that the Fed can use this as an excuse to adjust rates this month, but this is not much different from most situations in the past few years. In any case, the market can easily use this as an excuse to inject more funds into the bond market