On the eve of the non-farm payroll release, what signals will the ADP data release provide?
Some views suggest that weaker-than-expected employment data may lead to a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while a report in line with expectations may result in a "routine operation" rate cut of 25 basis points. Currently, economists generally expect that tonight's August ADP new employment figure will rise from 122,000 to 144,000, indicating signs of improvement in the job market
Following the disappointing JOLTS job vacancy data, what signal will the "mini non-farm" ADP employment data release send?
Currently, the Fed's rate cut in September has been fully priced in, but the extent of the rate cut is still "undecided," with the market generally believing that the employment data will influence the Fed's final decision.
In addition to the heavyweight non-farm employment report to be released on Friday, there are two other employment data points worth paying attention to: the July JOLTS job vacancy number and the August ADP employment number.
The overnight release of the U.S. July JOLTS job vacancies fell significantly below expectations, hitting the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, indicating weakness in the labor market.
Tonight at 20:15 Beijing time, the U.S. will release the August ADP employment report. Currently, economists generally expect the number of new jobs to increase from 122,000 to 144,000, sending a signal of a warming labor market.
Some views suggest that weaker-than-expected employment data could lead to a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, while a report in line with expectations could result in a "routine operation" by the Fed, cutting rates by 25 basis points.
Analysts at Yuexin Bank expect in a report that the ADP employment report may show signs of improvement in the job market, but if the later release of initial jobless claims is weaker than expected and the ISM non-manufacturing data does not show significant improvement, it is unlikely to bring much comfort to the U.S. dollar.
Morgan Stanley previously analyzed that the labor market is slowing down but not heading into a "recession," and expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points.
"We have seen strong non-farm employment data, which confirms our view that the economy is slowing down but not heading into a recession, and we expect the unemployment rate not to rise sharply."
Although the outlook for the job market remains unclear, market sentiment seems to have turned pessimistic.
A recent survey initiated by Bankrate found that nearly three-quarters of respondents are worried about job security, and nearly half of employees plan to look for new positions next year